There are several very good websites that track political polls. Simplifying slightly, in regards to the presidential election each website classifies each state as either Democratic or Republican, and either safe, likely, or leaning. States which are too close to call are toss-ups.
270 electoral college votes are needed for victory. Until a few days ago, all four major polling analysis websites (Sabatos, Cook, Political, and Inside Elections) had Biden safe, likely, or leaning in states which gave him 268 votes, just short of a victory. The significant new development is that Cook just flipped Wisconsin and Nevada District 2 to leaning Democrat, which gives Biden a win with 279 votes.
The situation is actually more dire for Trump than these numbers indicate. Including Wisconsin, there are currently four states which the websites consider to be tossup, the other three tossup states being Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona. In reality, there are several more states which are currently classified as leaning Republican, but where recent polls show Biden and Trump essentially tied.
As things stand now, Trump would have to sweep the following states including Nebraska District Two to win a second term. For each state, I give the result of the most recent polls.
TOSSUP STATES
+11 Biden - Nebraska District Two
+8 Biden - Wisconsin
+6 Biden - Florida
+3 Biden - North Carolina
+3 Biden - Arizona
LEANING REPUBLICAN
+3 Biden - Ohio
+2 Biden - Georgia
+2 Biden - Missouri
TIED - Iowa
+1 Trump - Texas
If Trump were to take each of the above states, then he would be victorious with exactly 270 votes.
From a polling standpoint, the situation for Trump looks pretty grim. It Biden takes each state where he currently has a lead, then he will win the electoral college by a count of 378 to 160.
270 electoral college votes are needed for victory. Until a few days ago, all four major polling analysis websites (Sabatos, Cook, Political, and Inside Elections) had Biden safe, likely, or leaning in states which gave him 268 votes, just short of a victory. The significant new development is that Cook just flipped Wisconsin and Nevada District 2 to leaning Democrat, which gives Biden a win with 279 votes.
The situation is actually more dire for Trump than these numbers indicate. Including Wisconsin, there are currently four states which the websites consider to be tossup, the other three tossup states being Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona. In reality, there are several more states which are currently classified as leaning Republican, but where recent polls show Biden and Trump essentially tied.
As things stand now, Trump would have to sweep the following states including Nebraska District Two to win a second term. For each state, I give the result of the most recent polls.
TOSSUP STATES
+11 Biden - Nebraska District Two
+8 Biden - Wisconsin
+6 Biden - Florida
+3 Biden - North Carolina
+3 Biden - Arizona
LEANING REPUBLICAN
+3 Biden - Ohio
+2 Biden - Georgia
+2 Biden - Missouri
TIED - Iowa
+1 Trump - Texas
If Trump were to take each of the above states, then he would be victorious with exactly 270 votes.
From a polling standpoint, the situation for Trump looks pretty grim. It Biden takes each state where he currently has a lead, then he will win the electoral college by a count of 378 to 160.
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