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Trump/Biden polls: significant new development

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Whateverman View Post
    You apparently haven't been paying attention since at least 2015.

    Maybe longer.
    I have been paying attention; maybe you haven't.

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by Whateverman View Post
      Some were, mostly early into the campaign season. The closer to election day the predictions got, the less they were wrong
      A survey from the Princeton Election Consortium has found that Hillary Clinton has a 99 per cent chance of winning the election over Donald Trump.

      Three days before the election, Ms Clinton has a projected 312 electoral votes, compared to 226 for Mr Trump. A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to win.

      The probability statistic was found by the university’s statistical Bayesian model.

      https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a7399671.html

      The HuffPost presidential forecast model gives Democrat Hillary Clinton a 98.2 percent chance of winning the presidency. Republican Donald Trump has essentially no path to an Electoral College victory.

      Clinton’s win will be substantial, but not overwhelming. The model projects that she’ll garner 323 electoral votes to Trump’s 215.

      https://www.huffpost.com/entry/polls...b0e80b02cc2a94

      Hillary Clinton's odds of winning the presidency rose from 78% last week to 91% Monday before Election Day, according to CNN's Political Prediction Market.

      Clinton's odds have always been much greater than her opponent, Republican nominee Donald Trump, according to the prediction market, although they had dropped last week.

      https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/polit...ump/index.html

      Lawrence speaks to Princeton’s Sam Wang, who says Hillary Clinton has a greater than 99% chance of winning the presidency & that Democrats have a strong chance of taking the Senate.

      https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/...n-801634371744

      With hours to go before Americans vote, Democrat Hillary Clinton has about a 90 percent chance of defeating Republican Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to the final Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.

      https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1322J1

      Clinton's odds of securing the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency at more than 95 percent, and by a margin of 118 Electoral College votes. It is the second week in a row that the project has estimated her odds so high.

      The results mirror other Electoral College projections, some of which estimate Clinton's chance of winning at around 90 percent.

      https://www.newsweek.com/hillary-cli...ndslide-510362

      I think you get the point.
      Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
      But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
      Than a fool in the eyes of God


      From "Fools Gold" by Petra

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by Christian3 View Post
        I have been paying attention
        Your observation a few posts above says differently.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by seanD View Post
          By question to you is: how do you think accurate polling numbers can be achieved when one side of the political spectrum considers you a reprobate if aren't on their side, and might even retaliate against you if they discover this about you? To me, this would explain the inconsistency with the high poll numbers in favor of Biden (folks may just be scared to admit support for Trump) when voter enthusiasm about Biden is so low.
          As I've noted elsewhere, saying, "I prefer this candidate over that candidate," is far different than actually going out and voting.
          Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
          But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
          Than a fool in the eyes of God


          From "Fools Gold" by Petra

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
            I think you get the point.
            I've been trying to find the screenshots I took election night where the "speedometer" graphic was showing Hillary would win by a landslide, then at the last minute, totally reversed.
            The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
              I've been trying to find the screenshots I took election night where the "speedometer" graphic was showing Hillary would win by a landslide, then at the last minute, totally reversed.
              Here's a screenshot of the New York Times election night tracker I took around midnight:

              Winning.jpg
              Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
              But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
              Than a fool in the eyes of God


              From "Fools Gold" by Petra

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by Christian3 View Post
                Terrible news. I had no idea that the average American adult's IQ had dropped so much.
                According to studies, they've been declining since the 1970s and have dropped an average seven points per generation since. So Generation X is about seven points higher than Gen Y, who are about seven points higher than Gen Z. I can see it in my kids and grandkids. Scary.

                https://medicalxpress.com/news/2018-...res-1970s.html

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Christian3 View Post
                  Terrible news. I had no idea that the average American adult's IQ had dropped so much.
                  That was demonstrated when Trump won in 2018.
                  Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                  Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                  But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                  go with the flow the river knows . . .

                  Frank

                  I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                    That was demonstrated when Trump won in 2018.
                    Persons of just a little higher IQ realize it was 2016.
                    The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                      Persons of just a little higher IQ realize it was 2016.
                      Technically, shuny is right but only because Trump is always winning.
                      Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                      But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                      Than a fool in the eyes of God


                      From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                        Technically, shuny is right but only because Trump is always winning.
                        Laughing.
                        The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Another significant change to the presidential race. The combined consensus of Cook, Sabatos, Politico, and Inside Elections now give Biden 278 electoral college votes. Since only 270 votes are necessary for a majority, the consensus is that Biden will win.

                          There are an additional 55 electoral college votes which are classified as tossups. Biden is leading in these states as well:

                          +11 Biden - Nebraska District 2
                          +6 Biden - Florida
                          +3 Biden - North Carolina
                          +2 Biden - Arizona

                          Looking at the United States as a whole, Biden is +9. Trump will have to lower this to no more than Biden +3 by election day to have any chance of winning the electoral college.
                          "My favorite color in the alphabet is three." - Donald J. Trump
                          "The 'J' in my middle name stands for 'Jenius'" - Donald J. Trump

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Another significant poll was released today which has Biden +15 over Trump. The poll, which was done by Quinnipiac University, is rated B+ by the FiveThirtyEight website.

                            The last time a presidential candidate had this large of a lead in the polls was way back in 1996 (Clinton vs. Dole).

                            "Yes, there's still 16 weeks until Election Day, but this is a very unpleasant real time look at what the future could be for President Trump. There is no upside, no silver lining, no encouraging trend hidden somewhere in this survey for the president." - Tim Malloy, Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst


                            I've been following the state level polls fairly closely, and Trump could still be victorious in the Electoral College if he somehow manages to take Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, but this is currently looking very unlikely (winning these four states led to Trump's 2016 victory):

                            +9 Biden - Michigan
                            +8 Biden - Pennsylvania
                            +8 Biden - Wisconsin
                            +7 Biden - Florida
                            "My favorite color in the alphabet is three." - Donald J. Trump
                            "The 'J' in my middle name stands for 'Jenius'" - Donald J. Trump

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
                              Another significant poll was released today which has Biden +15 over Trump. The poll, which was done by Quinnipiac University, is rated B+ by the FiveThirtyEight website.
                              An even more significant poll was released today. The poll was done by ABC News and the Washington Post, and is rated A+ by the FiveThirtyEight website, so obviously the poll is reliable.

                              The poll results:

                              +15 Biden - among registered voters
                              +10 Biden - among likely voters


                              By way of comparison, at this time four years ago, Clinton was +3 over Trump.

                              I've heard no suggestions that there is any possibility of the Republicans taking back the house. The current polls suggest that Biden will win the Electoral College vote by a landslide. The only unknown at this point is whether the Democrats can take back the senate, a race which appears to be roughly 50/50 at the moment, with perhaps a slight edge going to the Democrats.

                              https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...y-by-15-points
                              "My favorite color in the alphabet is three." - Donald J. Trump
                              "The 'J' in my middle name stands for 'Jenius'" - Donald J. Trump

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Fox News released a poll today, rated A- by FiveThirtyEight, which has Biden +8. Trump appeared on Fox News Sunday today, and he was not pleased with the poll. In Trump's words:

                                "I'm not losing, because those are fake polls. They were fake in 2016 and now they're even more fake. The polls were much worse in 2016. Whoever does your Fox polls, they're among the worst. They got it all wrong in 2016. They've been wrong on every poll I've ever seen.” Trump also claimed that his campaign has internal polls showing him “leading in every swing state.”

                                https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...-im-not-losing
                                "My favorite color in the alphabet is three." - Donald J. Trump
                                "The 'J' in my middle name stands for 'Jenius'" - Donald J. Trump

                                Comment

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