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Trump's easiest path to victory

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  • Trump's easiest path to victory

    Trump needs 270 electoral college votes to win a second term. So far as I can determine, all current projections are that Biden will win, possibly by a landslide. I've taken a look at the current polls, and as things stand now, Trump can obtain exactly 270 votes if he wins all the following states and districts. I give the latest poll for each state and district. All states not on this list are currently solidly in either the Biden or Trump camp, so winning all of the following would seem to be Trump's most favourable route to victory.

    +7 Biden - Nebraska District 2
    +7 Biden - Wisconsin
    +7 Biden - Florida
    +4 Biden - Arizona
    +3 Biden - North Carolina
    +1 Biden - Texas
    +1 Biden - Georgia

    +0 TIE - Ohio
    +1 Trump - Iowa
    +1 Trump - Maine District 2
    "My favorite color in the alphabet is three." - Donald J. Trump
    "The 'J' in my middle name stands for 'Jenius'" - Donald J. Trump

  • #2
    Yay, yet ANOTHER OMBT!

    We should have a separate OMBT Forum!
    The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Reepicheep View Post
      Trump needs 270 electoral college votes to win a second term. So far as I can determine, all current projections are that Biden will win, possibly by a landslide. I've taken a look at the current polls, and as things stand now, Trump can obtain exactly 270 votes if he wins all the following states and districts. I give the latest poll for each state and district. All states not on this list are currently solidly in either the Biden or Trump camp, so winning all of the following would seem to be Trump's most favourable route to victory.

      +7 Biden - Nebraska District 2
      +7 Biden - Wisconsin
      +7 Biden - Florida
      +4 Biden - Arizona
      +3 Biden - North Carolina
      +1 Biden - Texas
      +1 Biden - Georgia

      +0 TIE - Ohio
      +1 Trump - Iowa
      +1 Trump - Maine District 2
      He does seem to have a tough road ahead of him.

      A while ago, someone (a conservative at the other forum IIRC) said they thought Trump didn't want to win. I disagreed, but I'm slowly coming around. He figuratively gave black America the finger by not paying his respects to Lewis. I'm not terribly outraged by it, but I'll bet it angered some of the people he's told "what have you got to lose?".

      These poll numbers may be driving him towards that lack of enthusiasm...

      Comment


      • #4
        Sleepy Joe may be helping out Trump as we speak - he's taking questions from reporters after making a lackluster speech.
        The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
          Sleepy Joe may be helping out Trump as we speak - he's taking questions from reporters after making a lackluster speech.
          . . . as Trump consults Stella Immanuel she shakes her can of bones to dtermine Trump's next move.
          Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
          Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
          But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

          go with the flow the river knows . . .

          Frank

          I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
            . . . as Trump consults Stella Immanuel she shakes her can of bones to dtermine Trump's next move.
            Is that your new scthick? And it's DETERMINE!!!!
            The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

            Comment


            • #7
              I'll believe Trump has lost when he's officially lost. Until then I expect another four year of him.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Leonhard View Post
                I'll believe Trump has lost when he's officially lost. Until then I expect another four year of him.
                Isn't there a middle-ground?

                As in "I don't know what to expect"?

                For myself, I give Biden/Trump 60/40 in this next election. Biden's got the edge, but Trump might still pull it off...

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Whateverman View Post
                  Isn't there a middle-ground?

                  As in "I don't know what to expect"?

                  For myself, I give Biden/Trump 60/40 in this next election. Biden's got the edge, but Trump might still pull it off...
                  If the Democrats continue excusing and enabling anarchy, things could change quickly. And there may be a lot of us who don't talk to pollsters, and are tired of the rush of the left to the EXTREME left.
                  The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                    . . . as Trump consults Stella Immanuel she shakes her can of bones to dtermine Trump's next move.
                    Racist.
                    That's what
                    - She

                    Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
                    - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

                    I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
                    - Stephen R. Donaldson

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Honestly, I think the only hope Trump has for winning re-election is one of the following happening:
                      1) The Coronavirus going into major remission for some reason or another.
                      2) Biden doing a terrible job at the debates.
                      3) Biden dying before the election and a much less popular candidate being put in his place.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                        . . . as Trump consults Stella Immanuel...
                        I'm sure info about Stella has been posted elsewhere in this forum, but in case not...

                        I often say that nothing His Worship Donald J Trump says or does can surprise me, but I was proven wrong yesterday when Trump used a Stella Immanuel video to justify Trump's claim that hydroxychloroquine is an effective treatment for covid19. Among other things, Stella Immanuel believes that it is harmful for humans to have sex with demons and witches while dreaming, has alleged that alien DNA has been used to create various medicines, and believes that vaccines can be used to inoculate people against being religious.

                        I am not, of course, surprised that Trump would consider Stella to be a reliable source for medical information. I AM surprised, however, that Trump hasn't appointed Stella to be Surgeon General of the United States. Perhaps he still will...
                        "My favorite color in the alphabet is three." - Donald J. Trump
                        "The 'J' in my middle name stands for 'Jenius'" - Donald J. Trump

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Terraceth View Post
                          Honestly, I think the only hope Trump has for winning re-election is one of the following happening: vote for anyone the Dem's pick...
                          1) The Coronavirus going into major remission for some reason or another.
                          2) Biden doing a terrible job at the debates.
                          3) Biden dying before the election and a much less popular candidate being put in his place.
                          Interesting. I'd think a #3 could go either way; it could drive people towards or away-from a second term.

                          I know you said "less popular", but I'm honestly having a hard time imagining who that'd be. Biden's simply not that exciting, but his poll numbers are better than Trump's. This is probably because a lot of his supporters will vote for whomever the Dems pick...

                          I'm just thinking out loud.

                          I'd add an economic recovery as being a pro-Trump motivator...

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Whateverman View Post
                            Interesting. I'd think a #3 could go either way; it could drive people towards or away-from a second term.

                            I know you said "less popular", but I'm honestly having a hard time imagining who that'd be. Biden's simply not that exciting, but his poll numbers are better than Trump's. This is probably because a lot of his supporters will vote for whomever the Dems pick...

                            I'm just thinking out loud.
                            Biden's not that exciting but there's also not that much to object to him that wouldn't also apply to any other Democrat who could get the nomination (which puts him well ahead of Hillary, was more objectionable while also inspiring no more excitement). I think basically any of the other primary candidates would be less popular than him except for maybe Bernie Sanders, and even that one I'm not sure about--he's someone who people get enthusiastic about, but his positions are also more of a turn-off.

                            It is of course true that the impact of Biden dying (or suffering some kind of major illness or accident that renders him unable to continue campaigning) is basically impossible to properly predict--it could make things better for the Democrats, worse for the Democrats, or just even out and have no real major impact. But because it's such an uncertainty it ends up being a possibility for the race to turn around.

                            Of course, Trump dying or being unable otherwise unable to continue would just as much of an unpredictable effect, but as the question was re-election for Trump, that obviously didn't factor into the possibilities I listed. I do wonder if Pence would do better.

                            I'd add an economic recovery as being a pro-Trump motivator...
                            Honestly that probably falls under #1. I don't see real economic recovery as happening while COVID is running rampant.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                              If the Democrats continue excusing and enabling anarchy, things could change quickly. And there may be a lot of us who don't talk to pollsters, and are tired of the rush of the left to the EXTREME left.
                              I think the left is really underestimating cancel culture and its effects on the polls. I recently saw a poll that indicates something like 60-70% of Americans are reluctant to express their political views in this current environment.



                              Originally posted by Terraceth View Post
                              Honestly, I think the only hope Trump has for winning re-election is one of the following happening:
                              1) The Coronavirus going into major remission for some reason or another.
                              2) Biden doing a terrible job at the debates.
                              3) Biden dying before the election and a much less popular candidate being put in his place.
                              #4 The Dems keep doing what they're doing. It's pretty much a race to the bottom between the left and Trump -- who's going to be the most repulsive and scary come election.

                              Comment

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