The problem with finding a fatality rate for COVID-19 is that there are people who have caught it but had only mild or no symptoms, who are not included in the number of cases and so skew the calculation. But now, due to extensive testing regimes in some countries, there are places where effectively everyone has been tested, so no mild or asymptomatic cases will escape notice.
The largest so far is Luxembourg, who have reported 644,901 tests for a population of 627,036, i.e. they've tested 102% of the population. Presumably this means they've tested some people twice and tested some temporary visitors too. But we can be sure that there isn't a large pool of unnoticed cases.
They have reported 7,205 cases, with 5,848 recovered, 1,237 ongoing and 120 fatalities.* That gives a COVID-19 fatality rate of at least 120/7205 = 1.67%, and more likely 120/(5848+120) = 2.01%.
A similar calculation for Monaco gives a fatality rate of around 3%. The UAE has tested more than half the populace, and have a fatality rate of 0.5%
This suggests that there have been more than a million undiagnosed cases in the UK, and more than 2 million in the US. It also suggests that without containment measures the number of deaths in the UK and the US would have been much much higher.
*For the sceptical, these numbers add up.
The largest so far is Luxembourg, who have reported 644,901 tests for a population of 627,036, i.e. they've tested 102% of the population. Presumably this means they've tested some people twice and tested some temporary visitors too. But we can be sure that there isn't a large pool of unnoticed cases.
They have reported 7,205 cases, with 5,848 recovered, 1,237 ongoing and 120 fatalities.* That gives a COVID-19 fatality rate of at least 120/7205 = 1.67%, and more likely 120/(5848+120) = 2.01%.
A similar calculation for Monaco gives a fatality rate of around 3%. The UAE has tested more than half the populace, and have a fatality rate of 0.5%
This suggests that there have been more than a million undiagnosed cases in the UK, and more than 2 million in the US. It also suggests that without containment measures the number of deaths in the UK and the US would have been much much higher.
*For the sceptical, these numbers add up.
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