Huge asteroid that 'could end human life' defying gravity as it moves towards Earth

[Jesse]

How is 1 in 4000 even close to good odds?

It seems they are the same odds as dying in a car crash. If that is the case, then the odds seem pretty good.

[tabibito]

Someone with a statistical background correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't 1 in 4000 pretty good odds?

A stack stronger than winning the lottery, and people do that on a fairly regular basis.

[Jesse]

A stack stronger than winning the lottery, and people do that on a fairly regular basis.

Exactly. Thank you.

[sylas]

Over long periods of time, impacts with asteroids about this size are surprising common.

1 km in diameter is big; and if it does hit, we're in for a really bad day. But this asteroid is still one heck of a lot smaller than the one thought to have hit Earth 67 million years ago near Chicxulub in Mexico and precipitating the demise of most of the dinosaurs. (Indications are that the asteroid back then just happened to hit at a bad time when dinosaurs were vulnerable; the impact alone was probably not enough to bring about the mass extinction.) THAT asteroid was probably more like 10 km in diameter... which would mean 1000 times larger and more massive.

Stephen Ward, back in 2002, published some a paper on the asteroid 1950 DA, which is the one in the news at present. He looked at the possible consequences of an impact. See Asteroid impact tsunami of 2880 March 16. It makes for some titillating disaster porn.

The paper also considers the frequency at which bolides this large hit the Earth. It's about one every 300,000 years. So we've probably had about 200 such impacts already, since the much larger Chicxulub impact.

If asteroid 1950 DA does manage to beat the odds in solar system billiards and score a strike; then people around at the time would sit up and take notice. Civilizations would fall, millions or billions would die, some regions would be totally depopulated.

But end of life? Not even close. Life on Earth has been through more big asteroid impacts than you've had hot dinners.


Cheers -- sylas

[Cow Poke]

A stack stronger than winning the lottery, and people do that on a fairly regular basis.

The lottery is a special tax on people who are really bad at math.

[Sparko]

Over long periods of time, impacts with asteroids about this size are surprising common.

1 km in diameter is big; and if it does hit, we're in for a really bad day. But this asteroid is still one heck of a lot smaller than the one thought to have hit Earth 67 million years ago near Chicxulub in Mexico and precipitating the demise of most of the dinosaurs. (Indications are that the asteroid back then just happened to hit at a bad time when dinosaurs were vulnerable; the impact alone was probably not enough to bring about the mass extinction.) THAT asteroid was probably more like 10 km in diameter... which would mean 1000 times larger and more massive.

Stephen Ward, back in 2002, published some a paper on the asteroid 1950 DA, which is the one in the news at present. He looked at the possible consequences of an impact. See Asteroid impact tsunami of 2880 March 16. It makes for some titillating disaster porn.

The paper also considers the frequency at which bolides this large hit the Earth. It's about one every 300,000 years. So we've probably had about 200 such impacts already, since the much larger Chicxulub impact.

If asteroid 1950 DA does manage to beat the odds in solar system billiards and score a strike; then people around at the time would sit up and take notice. Civilizations would fall, millions or billions would die, some regions would be totally depopulated.

But end of life? Not even close. Life on Earth has been through more big asteroid impacts than you've had hot dinners.


Cheers -- sylas

Dang optimist.


So what about if it did break up? How would a lot smaller bits entering out atmosphere be worse than one large one? The smaller ones would spread out the damage but seem would be less catastrophic and might even burn up on the way down.

[Cow Poke]

Dang optimist.


So what about if it did break up? How would a lot smaller bits entering out atmosphere be worse than one large one? The smaller ones would spread out the damage but seem would be less catastrophic and might even burn up on the way down.

The multiple impacts would knock the earth off orbit, and bounce it into the next planet, sending that one into the next planet, in some colossal cosmic game of pool!

[sylas]

So what about if it did break up? How would a lot smaller bits entering out atmosphere be worse than one large one? The smaller ones would spread out the damage but seem would be less catastrophic and might even burn up on the way down.

If I am still around in 2880, I'd prefer it to stay in one piece. That way I can get out of the way more easily. (Burning up in the atmosphere isn't an option for something this big; even if fragmented.)

Cheers -- sylas

[Roy]

So what about if it did break up? How would a lot smaller bits entering out atmosphere be worse than one large one? The smaller ones would spread out the damage but seem would be less catastrophic and might even burn up on the way down.

Even the smaller ones would be catastrophic. It'd be the difference between having everything within a hundred kilometres or so of the impact site being completely obliterated, and the infrastructure of one continent being shattered, vs everything within ten km of each of hundreds of impact sites being obliterated and the infrastructure on all continents being disrupted. There's also the different effects of impacts on land (devastation and dust thrown into the atmosphere) vs water (tsunamis and widespread torrential rain). If the bolide is broken up, you'd get both.

Roy