Will Republicans Take the Senate?

[Sam]

I can never over-recommend Sam Wang's site, the Princeton Election Consortium. Wang has recently gone into the varying polling errors in midterm elections. So over at PEC, today's probability was a 55% chance of a GOP Senate plus or minus 15%.

In other words, it's either good chance or a tossup. We just don't know which.

[Cow Poke]

I can never over-recommend Sam Wang's site, the Princeton Election Consortium. Wang has recently gone into the varying polling errors in midterm elections. So over at PEC, today's probability was a 55% chance of a GOP Senate plus or minus 15%.

In other words, it's either good chance or a tossup. We just don't know which.

Thank you for that incredibly helpful analysis.

[Sam]

Thank you for that incredibly helpful analysis.

Anyone tellin' you something substantially different ain't right. Even before trying to factor the midterm-election polling error, it's anyone's guess. My completely unsubstantiated guess: as Kentucky goes, so goes the Senate.

[Sam]

[Cow Poke]

They're not supposed to.

[JimL]

Source: WashingtonPost

All three major election forecasting models saw an uptick in the likelihood of Republicans winning the six seats they need to retake the Senate majority over the past week, movement largely due to the party's strengthened chances in Alaska, Colorado and Iowa.

The most bullish model for Republicans is Washington Post's Election Lab, which, as of Monday morning, gives the GOP a 76 percent chance of winning the majority. Leo, the New York Times model, pegs it at 67 percent while FiveThirtyEight shows Republicans with a 60 percent probability. A week ago, Election Lab gave Republicans a 65 percent chance of winning the majority, Leo put it a 55 percent and FiveThirtyEight had it just under 55 percent.

All three models give Republicans very strong odds of winning the open seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia as well as beating Sens. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) and Mary Landrieu (D-La.). That would net Republicans five seats, one short of the number they need for the majority.

© Copyright Original Source

Source

Let's see... all three major forecasting models: Washington Post at 67%, FiveThirtyEight at 60% and New York Times at 67%. So, you add up the three numbers - 67 + 67 + 60 = 194, and divide that by 3 for an average percentage of 64.6, which means that the Republicans have about an 83% chance of doing something REALLY STUPID before the election, once again snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Seriously, though, how likely do you think it is that the Republicans will actually take the Senate, and by how much?


Epo - you can post in this thread, but ZERO racist / misogynist content.

Most of the races are to close to call, and being that these are mostly red states, so called red states, this does not bode well for Republicans even should they squeek out a win and take over control of the Senate this time around.

[Cow Poke]

Most of the races are to close to call,

That would be "too", Jimmy --- "too close to call".

and being that these are mostly red states, so called red states, this does not bode well for Republicans even should they squeek out a win and take over control of the Senate this time around.

Thank you, Jimmy, for that incredibly helpful forecast. However, if they DO "squeek [sic] out a win" in the Senate, it still means Dirty Harry loses his job as Senate Majority Leader.

Your friend,
CP

[Cow Poke]

As of this moment, it appears Republicans gain SEVEN Senate seats, and could POSSIBLY end up with up to TEN.

[Bill the Cat]

As of this moment, it appears Republicans gain SEVEN Senate seats, and could POSSIBLY end up with up to TEN.

Warner has Gillespie in VA by about 12K votes. I don't think a recount will make up that margin. Northern Virginia and Hampton Rhoades transplants once again run my state

[Cow Poke]

I'm sorry, Sam, what were you saying?

They're not making this any easier for you, Cow Poke.

Looks like Wang was Wong.

[Juvenal]

[seer]

It was a good night for sanity! Let's see if the Pubs can produce.

[Cow Poke]

It was a good night for sanity! Let's see if the Pubs can produce.

Unfortunately, I'm concerned they'll do something really stupid early on.

[rogue06]

Unfortunately, I'm concerned they'll do something really stupid early on.

They do seem to have a long history of doing that.

[rogue06]

It was a good night for sanity! Let's see if the Pubs can produce.

I don't expect much. Obama will veto anything he doesn't like (i.e., any and all Republican-backed legislation). And they don't have the votes to override a veto. In fact they don't even have the votes to stop a filibuster which the Democrats will rediscover a sudden fondness for.