New Electoral Math

[Jaltus]

I think we can all agree that it is about 249-238.

States in play: Ohio (20), HI (4), NM (5), NV (5), WI (10), IA (7).

Take Ohio out of the equation, and you have this likely split:

Kerry: HI = 242

Bush: NM, NV = 259

IA is slanted toward Bush right now. WI is a dead heat (as of this moment, Kerry leads by about 15,000 votes with 85% in, but two major Repub areas not reporting).

If Bush takes WI, he wins in the House. If he takes both, he wins straight up.

Ohio is the key state for most people (which I think Bush has won), but do not forget WI.

[brett]

I think we can all agree that it is about 249-238.

States in play: Ohio (20), HI (4), NM (5), NV (5), WI (10), IA (7).

Take Ohio out of the equation, and you have this likely split:

Kerry: HI = 242

Bush: NM, NV = 259

IA is slanted toward Bush right now. WI is a dead heat (as of this moment, Kerry leads by about 15,000 votes with 85% in, but two major Repub areas not reporting).

If Bush takes WI, he wins in the House. If he takes both, he wins straight up.

Ohio is the key state for most people (which I think Bush has won), but do not forget WI.

gonna pull an all nighter, eh?

[Jeiel]

Wow...
this is so exciting, even though I ain't American, I hardly slept all night.
Last night and this morning I prayed, Lord give my the strength and wisdom to leave this in your hand and the hands of the American people, it's their vote and, ultimately, whoever wins receives their power only because you have given it to them.
And I just want to say that, even though most Dutch people hate Bush with a passion, I actually prefer him, but even if Kerry won, I would respect the choice of the American people.
(Would be ironic if he won, since Bush has the popular vote. Would be a mirror of 2000)

Anyway, it's still exciting.
It's 10 AM in the Netherlands, and I turned on the news at 8.30: Bush had won.
(They were showing partying republicans.)
After 5 minutes it appeared my initial impression wasn't yet a fact.

Anyhow, it's
Bush - 254
Kerry - 242

Undecided
NM - 5
IA - 7
WI - 10

Close
OH - 20

If Bush wins Ohio (looks likely) he wins.
If he loses Ohio he can still win with WI+IA or WI+NM(Then he needs the house, which is in his favor).

Kerry has to win Ohio + (WI or IA+NM)

It all depends on Ohio.
WI could still put Bush in without Ohio, but assuming WI is for Kerry (likely) it all rests upon Ohio.

And Ohio is looking good for Bush.

(Although I must say, I hope Ohio doesn't become a mess like Florida was in 2000.
And I think it shows a fault in American politics if it all depends on a few thousand voters in Ohio.)

Edit:
Bush leads in Ohio by 145098, according to CNN

[brett]

Wow...
this is so exciting, even though I ain't American, I hardly slept all night.
Last night and this morning I prayed, Lord give my the strength and wisdom to leave this in your hand and the hands of the American people, it's their vote and, ultimately, whoever wins receives their power only because you have given it to them.
And I just want to say that, even though most Dutch people hate Bush with a passion, I actually prefer him, but even if Kerry won, I would respect the choice of the American people.
(Would be ironic if he won, since Bush has the popular vote. Would be a mirror of 2000)

Anyway, it's still exciting.
It's 10 AM in the Netherlands, and I turned on the news at 8.30: Bush had won.
(They were showing partying republicans.)
After 5 minutes it appeared my initial impression wasn't yet a fact.

Anyhow, it's
Bush - 254
Kerry - 242

Undecided
NM - 5
IA - 7
WI - 10

Close
OH - 20

If Bush wins Ohio (looks likely) he wins.
If he loses Ohio he can still win with WI+IA or WI+NM(Then he needs the house, which is in his favor).

Kerry has to win Ohio + (WI or IA+NM)

It all depends on Ohio.
WI could still put Bush in without Ohio, but assuming WI is for Kerry (likely) it all rests upon Ohio.

And Ohio is looking good for Bush.

(Although I must say, I hope Ohio doesn't become a mess like Florida was in 2000.
And I think it shows a fault in American politics if it all depends on a few thousand voters in Ohio.)

Edit:
Bush leads in Ohio by 145098, according to CNN

Don't let the American media fool you. 99% of the counting is done and Bush is ahead by almost 150 thousand votes. But the democrats in this country don't take defeat very well, unfortunately.

[Jeiel]

Well that's exactly what CNN is saying, so they didn't fool me.
However if Kerry protests at the court, and Bush objects, it could become the new and improved presidential mud fight.

Also interesting, according to CNN, with 99% counting, WI is looking:

Kerry 1,471,352
Bush 1,459,031

that's 12.000 votes (1%)...
If Kerry protests Ohio, Bush could protest Wisconsin.
And Bush can win without Ohio, if he has Wisconsin and Iowa or New Mexico.

I just hope nobody protests anything.

[brett]

I just hope nobody protests anything.

We're talking about 2 lawers, here (Kerry and Edwards). But I hope you're right.

[Jeiel]

Kerry wins WI, according to CNN, with 13.000 votes, 0.4%
Ohio is 'undecided', But Bush is leading with 140.000, 2.4%

Perhaps I'm missing something, or CNN's Kerry-slant is showing, but it seems to me that WI is less decided than OH.

[Jaltus]

WI was called because the governor of WI called it whereas the Sec of State for Ohio said it was a time to wait.

By the way, Bush won both IA and NM, putting him at 286 (including Ohio). If he takes WI, he is at 296.