Antibiotic Resistance Will Kill 300 Million People by 2050

[lilpixieofterror]

Good point. Linear extrapolations are rarely correct, due to lots of feedback effects. If a problem gets serious, it gets addressed. Nonetheless, lead times matter. The problem of falling off a cliff is serious just before the fall, not just before the landing. Halfway down, it's human nature to say "no problem so far" and get distracted.

And how many disasters have been predicted and do not end up materializing? There's lots of assumptions at work here, that may or may not ever happen. Even than, we could already be halfway down the cliff, for all we know. Where does the cliff end and begin at, to start with?

[Cow Poke]

And how many disasters have been predicted and do not end up materializing? There's lots of assumptions at work here, that may or may not ever happen. Even than, we could already be halfway down the cliff, for all we know. Where does the cliff end and begin at, to start with?

When I was a kid, the unholy trinity of fears consisted of...
A) A coming Ice Age
2) Overpopulation by the year 2000
C) Imminent Nuclear Annihilation by missiles from Cuba

Oh, and the heartbreak of psoriasis.

[Roy]

And how many disasters have been predicted and do not end up materializing?

Let's see... there's the rapture, the millennium, the apocalypse, the war to end all wars, the birth of the Antichrist, judgment day, the second coming, armageddon, Heaven's gate, Nostradamus, the star holocaust, the faith vs faith nuclear war, the Mayan calendar completion, the egg-writing prophesy, ...

See here for more evidence that the religious are far more guilty of this than the non-religious.

Roy

[seer]

Oh, and the heartbreak of psoriasis.

I remember, that one kept me up at night!

[shunyadragon]

It's perfectly on topic shuny because that is the problem with these doom's day views. They have to assume things do not change in decades time. The fact is that as more antiboitic resistant and immune diseases come about, that creates a reason to dig into research because it becomes more and more important (as well as profitable) to dive into new meds to combat these diseases. It is currently 2014 (almost 2015), how much have things changed since 1979? Is medical technology at the same level in 1979 as it is today? My grandfather died from a diseases that today, is quite treatable. That is the problem with these doom's day views, they assume too much.

Still remains, not addressing the topic of worldwide resistance to antibiotics, and many diseases that have become totally resistant to antibiotics. Medical advances and change are great and nice and address many medical issues, but NOT the growing wide spread resistance. I do not believe this research is based simply on 'assumptions.' There is indeed sound research on the problem, and not simply a doom's day chicken little assumption.

While teaching English at the China Medical University we had a good guest lecturer on the issue in 2008. We are on course with his projections of the problem of resistance to antibiotic and related technologies related to human immune system prolems.

[shunyadragon]

When I was a kid, the unholy trinity of fears consisted of...
A) A coming Ice Age

Actually the coming of the Ice Age had a basis in real science and still exists more then just as a possibility. The well documented long term climate cycles do indicate we are reaching the maximum of the long term warming trend and approach a distinct cooling trend, global warming considered. Popular yellow journalism tends to greatly exaggerate science, and yes create doom's day science scenarios.

2) Overpopulation by the year 2000

Valid problem, it is a matter of degree. We are approaching the point where food production will not meet the growing need of the population. Energy demands is also approaching the point where production of energy cannot meet demand. Recent high levels natural gas production have delayed the problem, but natural carbon energy resources are indeed limited.

C) Imminent Nuclear Annihilation by missiles from Cuba

This a distinct political not a scientific problem.

Oh, and the heartbreak of psoriasis.

Oh me oh my!!!!! The plague of psoriasis. My advice to you is get your shingles shoot.

[phank]

And how many disasters have been predicted and do not end up materializing? There's lots of assumptions at work here, that may or may not ever happen. Even than, we could already be halfway down the cliff, for all we know. Where does the cliff end and begin at, to start with?

Again, good point. An ounce of prevention is a waste, since the future is totally opaque. We are stuck with the pound of cure for everything. Life sucks.

[Cow Poke]

Actually the coming of the Ice Age had a basis in real science and still exists more then just as a possibility.

Yeah, I know --- that's why you guys "got religion" and decided to call it climate change instead of global warming. Covers all the bases.

Meanwhile, a lot of little school kids were scared poopless for no reason.

The well documented long term climate cycles do indicate we are reaching the maximum of the long term warming trend and approach a distinct cooling trend, global warming considered. Popular yellow journalism tends to greatly exaggerate science, and yes create doom's day science scenarios.

Two words: Al Gore

And he's on YOUR side!

Valid problem, it is a matter of degree.

You don't get it -- our "Weekly Readers" and "social study" books back then made it sound like I wasn't going to have a place to stand without getting crushed by the crowd.

It was SCARE tactics, pure and simple, and a dishonest attempt, IMOHBAO, to pave the way for more abortions (this was the late 50's and early 60's)

We are approaching the point where food production will not meet the growing need of the population.

Again -- you don't get it ... it was an "IMMINENT threat" 50 years ago.

This a distinct political not a scientific problem.

An 8 year old really didn't give a flyin flip about that -- it was fear mongering.

Oh me oh my!!!!! The plague of psoriasis. My advice to you is get your shingles shoot.

I had my shingles shoot just before my GQ photo shoot.

[Jedidiah]

Life sucks.

I like it.

[Roy]

Actually the coming of the Ice Age had a basis in real science and still exists more then just as a possibility. The well documented long term climate cycles do indicate we are reaching the maximum of the long term warming trend and approach a distinct cooling trend, global warming considered. Popular yellow journalism tends to greatly exaggerate science, and yes create doom's day science scenarios.

IIRC there was also evidence that nuclear bomb testing was throwing enough dust into the atmosphere that it was blocking/reflecting enough sunlight to have a measurable effect.

Roy

[lilpixieofterror]

Let's see... there's the rapture, the millennium, the apocalypse, the war to end all wars, the birth of the Antichrist, judgment day, the second coming, armageddon, Heaven's gate, Nostradamus, the star holocaust, the faith vs faith nuclear war, the Mayan calendar completion, the egg-writing prophesy, ...

See here for more evidence that the religious are far more guilty of this than the non-religious.

Too bad I don't make excuses for religious people, making false claims either, eh?

[lilpixieofterror]

Again, good point. An ounce of prevention is a waste, since the future is totally opaque. We are stuck with the pound of cure for everything. Life sucks.

Another stramwan phank? Well, guess when you can't answer what I said because what I said is the exact opposite of the dooms day believers, eh?

[lilpixieofterror]

Still remains, not addressing the topic of worldwide resistance to antibiotics, and many diseases that have become totally resistant to antibiotics.

Sorry shuny, but new classes of antibiotics do come out on the market too and you have to assume nothing at all will change on the medical front in 35 years time frame. Something verifiability false. Medical technology has advanced in 35 years in many areas, including new meds. Here is a list of the medicine's developed and approved by the FDA in 2014. If you read though it, plenty of those medicines were developed for the treatment of various bacterial infections.

Medical advances and change are great and nice and address many medical issues, but NOT the growing wide spread resistance. I do not believe this research is based simply on 'assumptions.' There is indeed sound research on the problem, and not simply a doom's day chicken little assumption.

And new antibiotics are developed because of antibiotic resistance that bacteria strains develop. We've known this for some time Shuny. The problem with making predictions that are 35 years in the future is a lot can change in 35 years. I mean, the first MRI scan, of a human, was made in the late 70's and today... most hospitals have them and they are more advanced than the MRI that they were first used. 35 years is a long time to be making grand claims about future events.

While teaching English at the China Medical University we had a good guest lecturer on the issue in 2008. We are on course with his projections of the problem of resistance to antibiotic and related technologies related to human immune system prolems.

And again, you have to assume that no medical break troughs will be made, in 35 years time. Something awfully hard to predict that often ends up blowing up in your face.

[klaus54]

IIRC there was also evidence that nuclear bomb testing was throwing enough dust into the atmosphere that it was blocking/reflecting enough sunlight to have a measurable effect.

Roy

More hydrogen bomb testing!!!

Yay!!

K54

[phank]

It was SCARE tactics, pure and simple, and a dishonest attempt, IMOHBAO, to pave the way for more abortions (this was the late 50's and early 60's)

No no no! It was a dishonest attempt to get people to believe in an imaginary god!
(In other words, to the single-issue fanatic, EVERYTHING is about their pet issue. Though how overpopulation becomes a religious issue is beyond me. There is serious debate today over whether (1) the human population has exceeded the carrying capacity of the world; and (2) whether people are reducing that carrying capacity through short-sighted policies.,