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Thread: Are we really in a recovery?

  1. #31
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seanD View Post
    I don't understand what you mean by "start and end points." The point of the charts is the decline (most of which has occurred significantly within the 2008 period of a so-called recovery). Please, explain your point.
    There is a problem here concerning your claim of 2008 being the period of the 'so-called recovery.' I do not believe that ecomists ever considered 2008 as the beginning of recovery. In reality 2007-2008 was the heart of the recession, which began to decline in 2005-2006. The actual maybe recovery likely begins in 2011-2012. I do not believe the middle class in reality has recovered. The rich are still getting richer, the middle class has declined, and the lower income class has increased. Any recent increase in employment has predominantly been in lower income an marginal employment. The decline of the middle class goes back to at least the turn of the Millennium 1999-2001 or earlier with the loose of industrial and commercial employment.

    Lot's of nice graphs demonstrate this.
    Last edited by shunyadragon; 05-11-2016 at 11:43 AM.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by shunyadragon View Post
    There is a problem here concerning your claim of 2008 being the period of the 'so-called recovery.' I do not believe that ecomists ever considered 2008 as the beginning of recovery. In reality 2007-2008 was the heart of the recession, which began to decline in 2005-2006. The actual maybe recovery likely begins in 2011-2012. I do not believe the middle class in reality has recovered. The rich are still getting richer, the middle class has declined, and the lower income class has increased. Any recent increase in employment has predominantly been in lower income an marginal employment. The decline of the middle class goes back to at least the turn of the Millennium 1999-2001 or earlier with the loose of industrial and commercial employment.

    Lot's of nice graphs demonstrate this.

    You're sort of correct. I should have said the end of 2008. Most economists claim the recovery began by the 1st-2nd quarter of 2009. My position throughout this thread is that we've never been in a recovery. The central bank merely attempted to resurrect the wealth illusion by pumping trillions of dollars into the system. This is essentially what they've been doing in all the historical boom and busts of the past -- micromanaging the economy to death. However, the illusion is getting harder and harder to maintain, which is why this time the illusion doesn't look like a recovery to most people, and it has apparently become global. Though the MSM tries to hide this most of the time, even Keynesian shills like Krugman admit that this "recovery" is struggling. I have reasons for that which I covered throughout the thread.

  3. #33
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seanD View Post
    You're sort of correct. I should have said the end of 2008. Most economists claim the recovery began by the 1st-2nd quarter of 2009. My position throughout this thread is that we've never been in a recovery. The central bank merely attempted to resurrect the wealth illusion by pumping trillions of dollars into the system. This is essentially what they've been doing in all the historical boom and busts of the past -- micromanaging the economy to death. However, the illusion is getting harder and harder to maintain, which is why this time the illusion doesn't look like a recovery to most people, and it has apparently become global. Though the MSM tries to hide this most of the time, even Keynesian shills like Krugman admit that this "recovery" is struggling. I have reasons for that which I covered throughout the thread.
    There is a lot of graphs and explanations of of self-justification of political economic views. The reality is NO the reality of recover is for the Banks and wealthy, not the middle to poor, Again NO their is no recovery.

    Thanks to no taxes for capital gains, wealthy do not pay taxes.
    Last edited by shunyadragon; 05-14-2016 at 02:57 AM.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  4. #34
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by seanD View Post
    So I argue, once the facade of the economic data has been exposed, that we are actually experiencing both recession (evident by dropping commodity prices, such as oil) and inflation – or stagflation. But why haven’t we seen consistent hyperinflation? Simply put, the hundreds of billions created by the Fed is not being used as intended, or is not flowing into the main economy outside of the equity and bond market. In short, we have an extremely lopsided economic system here (which has been contributing to the growing wealth gap of late). The hyperinflation is actually evident in both the over-inflated stock market (as I covered earlier) and the US bond market…
    Mr. Greenspan concurs...

    Greenspan also said the U.S. may be heading toward stagflation -- a slow-growth economy coupled with high inflation. There’s a significant amount of uncertainty and “general sluggishness" in the economy, which is tied to low productivity, he said.
    “What I’m concerned about mostly is stagflation, meaning I think we’re seeing the very early signs of inflation beginning finally to pick up as the issue of deflation fades,” Greenspan, 90, said. “We’re just in a stagnation state.”

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/06/cnbc-...ley-today.html
    Your late Mr. Greenspan. Your late.

  5. #35
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stfoskey15 View Post
    I actually find his opinions somewhat interesting, but I don't know much economics, so it's hard for me to have a real discussion about it.
    I've heard similar claims about how the economic recovery has been weak and not helping the middle class, and it's interesting to read someone else's opinion on it.
    Actually his argument has considerable merit, but as to the cause of the problems, that is another big question that needs a less biased view. Our problems and economic history can be easily shared by all concerned. Obama for on has faced a hostile Congress, and change cannot likely be a product of this. The bad international trade deals likely caused a lot of problems, but these treaties were bi-partisan with enthusiastic Republican support. Neither party duck responsibility for this.

    Of course, 'Who puts the bell on the economic mouse (Gorilla).'
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

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