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2015 looking like another world record year for the global warming trend.

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  • Originally posted by Jichard View Post
    I'm pretty sure the "hockey stick" pattern is real and based on actual data. For example:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CY4Yecsx_-s from 02:40 to 09:11

    The video also goes over another problem for your claim: the source it comes from. To see the problem, first note where your above your picture comes from:
    What you pasted was "Fig. 4.8", and is based on Craig Loehle's work. The problem is Loehle's work left out decades of recent global warming (as gone over in the video I linked to; see 08:14 to 09:11). So your graph isn't going to help you much, since it leaves out recent global warming.

    If you want an introduction to some of the temperature reconstructions, the following might help:
    The extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperature in the last two millennia: reconstructions of low-frequency variability
    http://clim-past.net/8/765/2012/cp-8-765-2012.pdf
    Here is Loehle's correction to his graph:
    "Correction to: A 2000 Year Global Temperature Reconstruction Based on Non-tree ring proxies"
    econ.ohio-state.edu/jhm/AGW/Loehle/Loehle_McC_E&E_2008.pdf

    It seems that tabibito's graph is figure 2 on page 97 of that source. The graph only goes up to 1935 and therefore leaves out much of the recent global warming.
    "Instead, we argue, it is necessary to shift the debate from the subject under consideration, instead exposing to public scrutiny the tactics they [denialists] employ and identifying them publicly for what they are."

    Comment


    • August 2015 is very hot with mixed results.

      Source: https://reason.com/blog/2015/09/09/global-temperature-trend-update-august-2



      Every month University of Alabama in Huntsville climatologists John Christy and Roy Spencer publish the latest global temperature trend data obtained from NOAA satellites. For the month of August 2015 they report:


      Global Temperature Report: August 2015

      In the tropics, warmest August in the satellite temperature record

      Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.11 C per decade

      August temperatures (preliminary)

      Global composite temp.: +0.28 C (about 0.50 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for August.

      Northern Hemisphere: +0.25 C (about 0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for August.

      Southern Hemisphere: +0.31 C (about 0.56 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for August.



      TempAugust2015
      Roy Spencer


      Notes on data released Sept. 8, 2015:

      Driven by a growing El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event, temperatures around the globe continued to rise through August, setting a new August record in the tropics for the satellite record, said Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. Temperatures in the tropics averaged 0.52 C (about 0.94° F) warmer than seasonal norms in August, surpassing the previous record of +0.46 C set in August 1998.

      Globally it was the third warmest August in the satellite record, trailing only August 1998 and 2010. It was also the third warmest August in the Southern Hemisphere, behind August 1998 and August 2002.

      Compared to global temperature anomalies from all months, August 2015 tied as the 32nd warmest month since the satellite record began in December 1978. It was tied with five other months, all since October 2005. In the tropics, August 2015 tied with September 2009 as the 17th warmest month, when compared to seasonal norms for all months.

      © Copyright Original Source

      Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
      Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
      But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

      go with the flow the river knows . . .

      Frank

      I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

      Comment


      • Just a little update here: August's numbers are in, and it was the warmest August on the temperature record.

        http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ta...LB.Ts+dSST.txt

        If you look at the 3 month chunks that NASA also analyzes, the 2015 figures are the warmest, tied for second, and the warmest. (NASA starts these chunks in December). So, still on track for a new record.

        August also makes it 30 years and 6 months since the last time we saw a month come in below the average temperature of 1950-1980, which NASA uses as its baseline.
        "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

        Comment


        • More hot months for September and October insure that 2015 will be the hottest year on record.

          Source: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201510



          The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for September 2015 was the highest for September in the 136-year period of record, at 0.90°C (1.62°F) above the 20th century average of 15.0°C (59.0°F), surpassing the previous record set last year in 2014 by 0.12°C (0.19°F). This marks the fifth consecutive month a monthly high temperature record has been set and is the highest departure from average for any month among all 1629 months in the record that began in January 1880. The September temperature is currently increasing at an average rate of 0.06°C (0.11°F) per decade.

          Separately, the September average temperature across global land surfaces was 1.16°C (2.09°F) above the 20th century average, also the highest for September on record. Large regions of Earth's land surfaces were much warmer than average, according to the Land & Ocean Temperature Percentiles map above. Record warmth was observed across northeastern Africa stretching into the Middle East, part of southeastern Asia, most of the northern half of South America, and parts of central and eastern North America. Southern South America, far western Canada, Alaska, and a swath across central Asia were cooler or much cooler than average.
          The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for October 2015 was the highest for October in the 136-year period of record, at 0.98°C (1.76°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F). This marked the sixth consecutive month a monthly global temperature record has been broken and was also the greatest departure from average for any month in the 1630 months of recordkeeping, surpassing the previous record high departure set just last month by 0.13°F (0.07°C). The October temperature is currently increasing at an average rate of 0.06°C (0.11°F) per decade.

          Separately, the October average temperature across global land surfaces was 1.33°C (2.39°F) above the 20th century average, the highest for October on record. This surpasses the previous record set in October 2011 by 0.17°C (0.31°F). This margin is larger than the uncertainty associated with the dataset. Large regions of Earth's land surfaces were much warmer than average, according to the Land & Ocean Temperature Percentiles map above. Record warmth was observed across the entire southern half of Australia, part of southern and southeastern Asia, much of central and southern Africa, most of Central America and northern South America, and parts of western North America. Regionally, Oceania and the African continent were both record warm. Argentina, part of northeastern Canada, scattered regions of western and central Russia, and central Japan were cooler or much cooler than average.

          © Copyright Original Source

          Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
          Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
          But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

          go with the flow the river knows . . .

          Frank

          I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

          Comment


          • Shuyna-the-Cross-Dresser's only concern is Climate Change.

            Regardless of the way the data leads.

            And arguing his Bally-hoo-hah false religion.

            We get it already.

            Pardon him, he has another lost-ticket burlesque show to attend.

            I've seen photos -- he's damnably ugly.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by klaus54 View Post
              Shuyna-the-Cross-Dresser's only concern is Climate Change.

              Regardless of the way the data leads.

              And arguing his Bally-hoo-hah false religion.

              We get it already.

              Pardon him, he has another lost-ticket burlesque show to attend.

              I've seen photos -- he's damnably ugly.
              Tone it down
              That's what
              - She

              Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
              - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

              I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
              - Stephen R. Donaldson

              Comment


              • Originally posted by klaus54 View Post
                Shuyna-the-Cross-Dresser's only concern is Climate Change.

                Regardless of the way the data leads.

                And arguing his Bally-hoo-hah false religion.

                We get it already.

                Pardon him, he has another lost-ticket burlesque show to attend.

                I've seen photos -- he's damnably ugly.
                Wow! It's not even a full moon tonight. Barking at the moon a little early.
                Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                go with the flow the river knows . . .

                Frank

                I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                  Wow! It's not even a full moon tonight.
                  Yes it is.

                  I'm always still in trouble again

                  "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                  "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                  "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                    Yes it is.
                    So that's why my back hair's especially thick and luxurious tonight.
                    "When the Western world accepted Christianity, Caesar conquered; and the received text of Western theology was edited by his lawyers…. The brief Galilean vision of humility flickered throughout the ages, uncertainly…. But the deeper idolatry, of the fashioning of God in the image of the Egyptian, Persian, and Roman imperial rulers, was retained. The Church gave unto God the attributes which belonged exclusively to Caesar."

                    — Alfred North Whitehead

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                      Yes it is.
                      Whoops!! I was off a night or two. This may explain klaus45 behavior. He may turn into a Troll with the advent of the full moon.
                      Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                      Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                      But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                      go with the flow the river knows . . .

                      Frank

                      I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                        Source: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/jun/15/the-latest-global-temperature-data-are-breaking-records



                        The latest global temperature data are breaking records

                        Just today, NASA released its global temperature data for the month of May 2015. It was a scorching 0.71°C (1.3°F) above the long-term average. It is also the hottest first five months of any year ever recorded. As we look at climate patterns over the next year or so, it is likely that this year will set a new all-time record. In fact, as of now, 2015 is a whopping 0.1°C (0.17°F) hotter than last year, which itself was the hottest year on record.

                        Below, NASA’s annual temperatures are shown. Each year’s results are shown as black dots. Some years are warmer, some are cooler and we never want to put too much emphasis on any single year’s temperature. I have added a star to show where 2015 is so far this year, simply off the chart. The last 12 months are at record levels as well. So far June has been very hot as well, likely to end up warmer than May.

                        So why talk about month temperatures or even annual temperatures? Isn’t climate about long-term trends?

                        First, there has been a lot of discussion of the so-called ‘pause.’ As I have pointed out many times here and in my own research, there has been no pause at all. We know this first by looking at the rate of energy gain within the oceans. But other recent publications, like ones I’ve written about have taken account of instrument and measurement quality and they too find no pause.

                        Second, there has been a lot of discussion of why models were running hotter than surface air temperatures. There was a real divergence for a while with most models suggesting more warming. Well with 2014 and 2015, we see that the models and actual surface temperatures are in very close agreement.

                        When we combine surface temperatures with ocean heat content, as seen below, a clear picture emerges. Warming is continuing at a rapid rate.

                        © Copyright Original Source

                        Just read this article: http://new.spectator.co.uk/2015/11/i...y-interviewed/

                        It is about a PhD scientist, among the world's most qualified, who got tossed out with yesterday's garbage because she dared to oppose the politically-correct stance on the matter. How DARE she do that!!!

                        It is yet another instance (out of many) supporting my personal observations regarding the "Climate Change" criminal fiasco (once called "Global Warming" but changed in name to make the LIE more believable). Concisely, the whole thing is an economic-politically-motivated con job that has NOTHING to do with the facts. HOWEVER ...

                        ... however, if you happen to oppose the consensus then you become EXPELLED -- yes, "expelled" in the same sense as if you oppose/deny Evolution. In fact, the similarities are eerie! In the article linked above you can substitute "Evolution" for "climate change" in many sentences and the essence remains the same.

                        Anyway, most of the people on TWeb (beginning with Dragon Breath ... oops, I mean shunyadragon) are beyond help so I leave you all with this to chew on and spit out as you surely will because ... well, because, just like Evolution, you refuse to accept anything that opposes your religious beliefs, however wrong those beliefs may be.

                        Enjoy your 'turkey' today ........ Ta-ta ...

                        Jorge

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Jorge View Post
                          Just read this article: http://new.spectator.co.uk/2015/11/i...y-interviewed/

                          It is about a PhD scientist, among the world's most qualified, who got tossed out with yesterday's garbage because she dared to oppose the politically-correct stance on the matter. How DARE she do that!!!

                          It is yet another instance (out of many) supporting my personal observations regarding the "Climate Change" criminal fiasco (once called "Global Warming" but changed in name to make the LIE more believable). Concisely, the whole thing is an economic-politically-motivated con job that has NOTHING to do with the facts. HOWEVER ...

                          ... however, if you happen to oppose the consensus then you become EXPELLED -- yes, "expelled" in the same sense as if you oppose/deny Evolution. In fact, the similarities are eerie! In the article linked above you can substitute "Evolution" for "climate change" in many sentences and the essence remains the same.

                          Anyway, most of the people on TWeb (beginning with Dragon Breath ... oops, I mean shunyadragon) are beyond help so I leave you all with this to chew on and spit out as you surely will because ... well, because, just like Evolution, you refuse to accept anything that opposes your religious beliefs, however wrong those beliefs may be.

                          Enjoy your 'turkey' today ........ Ta-ta ...

                          Jorge
                          It would be good for you to treat climate change and biological evolution as obviously DIFFERENT concepts.

                          It would make you look far less like a scientific Luddite and Fundy cultic proselytizer.

                          P.S. On the CC side you look as dumb as Crazy Bernie Sanders with his claim that climate change is the cause of terrorism.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Jorge View Post
                            It is about a PhD scientist, among the world's most qualified, who got tossed out with yesterday's garbage because she dared to oppose the politically-correct stance on the matter. How DARE she do that!!!
                            I assume by "tossed out" you mean "still has her tenured faculty position".
                            "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by TheLurch View Post
                              I assume by "tossed out" you mean "still has her tenured faculty position".
                              Your correct the article is a bit hyperbole yellow journalism.

                              Spitting contest aside between scientists aside. What she believes is the observed rise in temperatures worldwide in recent history is a part of natural fluctuation that occurs over time, and she believes by 2030 the books will balance naturally with no apparent significant human influence on over all climate trends. She is definitely in a minority among scientists, just taking a wait and see and you will find out I am right. It is remotely possible that she is right, but the actual evidence of climate trends over the past centuries is clearly against her. Included is the evidence of the changes in the atmosphere by human influence in recent history.
                              Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                              Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                              But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                              go with the flow the river knows . . .

                              Frank

                              I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                              Comment


                              • Minor correction there.


                                Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                                You're correct the article is a bit hyperbole yellow journalism.
                                Micah 6:8 He has told you, O man, what is good; and what does the LORD require of you but to do justice, and to love kindness, and to walk humbly with your God?

                                Comment

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