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August 5th 2006, 07:25 AM #166
Re: Why liberals fear global warming far more than Conservatives do?
The last paragraph in this article says:
Originally posted by sylas
"Current warmth seems to be occurring nearly everywhere at the same time and is largest at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Over the last 50 years, the largest annual and seasonal warmings have occurred in Alaska, Siberia and the Antarctic Peninsula. Most ocean areas have warmed. Because these areas are remote and far away from major cities, it is clear to climatologists that the warming is not due to the influence of pollution from urban areas."
I thought that the contention was that it is the polution from urban areas that are causing global warming. If it is emissions from major industrial areas, why are these remote areas the ones affected the most?
What am I missing?
gg
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August 5th 2006, 09:16 AM #167
Re: Why liberals fear global warming far more than Conservatives do?
This data is working from direct temperature measurements, rather than from proxies like Mann's work. A major difficulty with direct temperature measurement is that weather stations are often close to urban areas, and such areas are sources of additional heat pollution that have nothing to do with global warming. Cities are often substantially warmer than areas in the surrounding country. The trick, then, is to account for this and take measurements that have nothing to do with localized urban heat pollution.
Originally posted by goodygoody
Indeed, this attempt to get away from local distortions is a major focus of the research. They apply compensations when they have to use urban data, to account for the local effects. The last paragraph is not a denial of the effect of human emissions. It is an indicator that they have been successful in getting real measurements that are not distorted by local effects. Green house gases effect the whole planet; not just urban areas where they are emitted. Therefore it is important to measure the global temperature undistorted by local effects.
By the way, one of the authors of this NASA study is James Hansen; who has been one of the leading scientists in this whole area; a very big name indeed in climate studies and global warming – a very vocal critic of the way government is trying to gag debate. (ref) He's the last person in the world to think of as a critic of the notion of anthropogenic warming. He's much closer to being the one who discovered it.
A good description of the importance of trying to get rid of these local effects is available in a previous report by the same team. See A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change (4 Mb pdf) by Hansen, J.E., R. Ruedy, Mki. Sato, M. Imhoff, W. Lawrence, D. Easterling, T. Peterson, and T. Karl in J. Geophys. Res. 106, (2001) 23947-23963.
Other reports, again by the same team, confirm that this warming is indeed mostly caused by human produced greenhouse gases. See, for example, Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications, by the same researchers, published in Science 308, 1431-1435 (2005).
Cheers -- SylasLast edited by sylas; August 5th 2006 at 09:21 AM.
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August 5th 2006, 11:31 AM #168
Re: Why liberals fear global warming far more than Conservatives do?
(I am responding to msg #161.)
The scientific data absolutely does support man made effects as the primary cause of the current rapid rise in global temperatures.
Originally posted by Simeon
Simeon has said recent warming is just normal climate change. He has given no data or evidence whatsoever for this claim. Of course climate does change, over time; but there is no credible basis for doubt that change in recent decades stands out for being exceptional. Studies for the causes of this recent change point the finger at anthropogenic green house gases as the major contribution. That's not hysteria… that's simply a statement of the facts as they stand at present. Hysteria shows up not in the facts themselves, but how you talk about them.
All rational policy takes this as a starting point for guidance of policy decisions and strategy. Ironically, the very policy group Simeon cites is an example!
The IPPR recognizes the basic facts about global warming and humanity's role in causing it; and their focus is how people can best be motivated to change their behaviours.
Originally posted by Simeon, in msg #161
Do you get this yet, Simeon? The very people you are citing accept man caused global warming, and are concerned about identifying the most effective way to motivate people to change their behaviour and do something about it. You've completely misunderstood what this article is about; and turned it about face by 180 degrees.
By their own account, the IPPR is the UK's leading progressive think tank. They are a private group, having no special authority or recognition; but they are interesting none the less. To prepare this post, I have read through used the following IPPR documents.
- Ankelohe and beyond: communicating climate change, Simon Retallack, May 2006.
- Fortune favours the brave, Simon Retallack, June 2006.
- The problem with climate porn, Simon Retallack, August 2006.
- The Low Carbon Programme; an IPPR project that "aims to develop answers to some of the critical questions facing the UK and the international community in its efforts to prevent dangerous climate change".
IPPR policy research is guided by the facts on the ground about global warming, and consequently they recognize that human cause of global warming is a well established phenomenon. Hysteria does not lie simply in recognition of this basic fact; it is an ineffective way of responding to the facts.
Their policy proposals are consistently geared towards finding the most effective way to motivate people to respond and tackle the issue.
Quoting from the article:
This same IPPR report also proposes a solution. Retallack concludes with a recommendation: Warm Words: How are we telling the climate story and can we tell it better? (500 kb pdf; 32 pages). The booklet is free; and here is the preface.
Those interested may like to look through it and see what they recommend. Simeon won't like it a bit. I just find it screamingly funny that he even cited this. Anything further removed from his head in the sand denial would be hard to imagine.
Cheers -- Sylas
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August 5th 2006, 02:35 PM #169
Re: Why liberals fear global warming far more than Conservatives do?
O.K., and they have their scientistic sources and you have yours?
Originally posted by sylas
Looking in more detail at who is quoting what just makes you look worse at every turn; so let's dig a bit deeper.
Deal with what? Your perception of a "sharp rise" in our USA or global temps? Compared against what, the last ice age or mini-ice age of the 1880's?You are responding to msg #130, where I cited the report by the NAS into the hockey stick curve. This is about as non-partisan as you can get. It is the National Academy of Sciences in the USA, and the report was commissioned by congress specifically to look into the claims for a sharp increase in recent warming and see whether or not the claims were valid. A large committee was involved in its production, and the NAS itself is not aligned with any political movement.
The sharp rise is called the "hockey stick", and the NAS report confirmed that the conclusions were valid. The NAS report does speak of some scope for tuning or adjusting the trends identified by Mann in 1998; which is normal in the progress of science. But the science involved was good.
From the summary of the NAS report:
The NAS report is thorough. It also considers the criticisms that have been made of the methods used by Mann et. al. Criticism is perfectly normal in science; it is part of what keeps scientific work at a high quality. The report, from page 105, looks at some of the criticisms, and proposes various better methods that can be applied. Their overall support of Mann is thus qualified; but this is mostly a matter of tuning. The basic result is solid.
You've cited Wall Street Journal, an article called "Hockey Stick Hokum". The basis of the Wall Street Journal rubbish is a report commissioned by Rep. Barton, and produced by three statisticians – not scientists. It amounts to a lot of quibbling over the particular statistical methods in Mann's work. This report is from an ad hoc committee, commissioned by the usual political suspects (Rep Barton is notorious for head in the sand refusal to deal with the science), not subject to any peer review, not involving any actual scientists or climatologists, and not even making any new criticisms!
The basic criticisms of this report were already made in the peer reviewed literature by McIntyre and McKitrick in 2003, and have been already responded to and dealt with in the literature. That debate is considered in the NAS report on page 86.
Mann has responded to the report commissioned by Barton. He is quoted at Mongabay.com:
As far as I can tell from looking over the reports in question, Mann is correct.
More seriously, all of this quibbling is beside the point. The science marches on. Mann's work is just one little piece in the continuing accumulation of data pointing the reality of global warming, the role of humanity in causing it, and the extent of warming being substantially greater than the normal swings in climate that take place on our planet. His work is now eight years old, for heavens sake.
Here's some more recent science.
- 2005 Warmest Year in Over a Century, from NASA. Note that this is based on temperature data; not on proxies. NASA thus provides a direct confirmation of the Hockey stick inferred by Mann's proxy based analysis. Here is NASA's data, graphed.
[attachment=1] - Climate 'warmest for millennium', reported by the BBC in Feb 2006. Extract: In the late 20th Century, the northern hemisphere experienced its most widespread warmth for 1,200 years, according to the journal Science.. This is research by Dr Timothy Osborn.
But am I picking and choosing? Of course: I'm picking and choosing what is supported by scientists who actually study climate. Could I have chosen scientists disputing that human effects are a major cause of global warming? No, not in the peer reviewed literature. As I showed back in msg #145, there are NO scientific reports actually denying human caused scientific warming, based on a survey reported in 2004 in the journal Science. The scientific debate is all on the details, in the context of a universal consensus of the reality of human caused global warming.
Deal with it.
Cheers -- Sylas
The Politics of the hyped hysteria of the Leftwing nuts?
Sure, as I have stated, temps are rising and have been since the last ice age.
Thank God for that, and I hope Greenland becomes GREEN again!
O.K. you quote NASA and I have NOAA too. I have been researching and sourcing any and all of the trusted sites that I can.
We need more fact gathering, and cool headed analysis, and lunatics like Al Gore will be refuted, and rejected because their hysteria is obvious and politically motivated!
See:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/...jun/jun06.html
Climate of 2006 - June in Historical Perspective
National Climatic Data Center
13 July 2006
In 2007 NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, celebrates 200 years of science and service to the nation. Starting with the establishment of the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey in 1807 by Thomas Jefferson much of America's scientific heritage is rooted in NOAA. The agency is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners and more than 60 countries to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes.Last edited by Simeon; August 5th 2006 at 02:38 PM.
- 2005 Warmest Year in Over a Century, from NASA. Note that this is based on temperature data; not on proxies. NASA thus provides a direct confirmation of the Hockey stick inferred by Mann's proxy based analysis. Here is NASA's data, graphed.
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August 5th 2006, 02:57 PM #170
Re: Why liberals fear global warming far more than Conservatives do?
Sorry, I don't buy it, and Tucker Carlson of MSNBC just demonstrated recently as yesterday on his cable show, at least to my satisfaction, that this isn't so "conclusive" or proven.
Originally posted by sylas
Are you suggesting that greenhouse gases were the cause of the warming since the say, the last ice age?Simeon has said recent warming is just normal climate change. He has given no data or evidence whatsoever for this claim.
Please, provide evidence for the source of the end of the last ice age cycle?
First prove it.Of course climate does change, over time; but there is no credible basis for doubt that changes in recent decades stands out for being exceptional. Studies for the causes of this recent change point the finger at anthropogenic green house gases as the major contribution. That's not hysteria… that's simply a statement of the facts as they stand at present. Hysteria shows up not in the facts themselves, but how you talk about them.
Next prove that there a demi-god darn chance that you can reverse the reality of the increase of global human activity, including exhaling CO2?
President Bush has asked for voluntary efforts to save our energy supplies and to reduce pollution. This is common sense and good for our economy!
Of course, and I am trying to pursue any and all sources to further a rational discourse here, free from the inconvenient hysteria from idiots like Al Gore.All rational policy takes this as a starting point for guidance of policy decisions and strategy. Ironically, the very policy group Simeon cites is an example!
Sorry, as I see other rational explanations.and evidence for climatic change.The IPPR recognizes the basic facts about global warming and humanity's role in causing it; and their focus is how people can best be motivated to change their behaviours.
Do you get this yet, Simeon?
I do agree that with over 6 Billion people on this planet, that our very act of exhaling CO2 may impact our atmosphere and indeed, there will be off setting factors as well.
See:How Global Warming Can Chill the Planet
By Sarah Davidson - LiveScience Staff Writer
Scientists hope new evidence of an ancient rise in sea level from a fresh water flood will tell them how global warming can lead to global cooling. A global cooling event was caused by global warming? Sounds strange. But that is exactly what scientists say happened.
The Earth was emerging from an ice age 8,200 years ago. Seas were warming and life was heating up. Then quite abruptly and for a relatively short period of time -- about 100 years -- the entire globe chilled down again, by almost 10.8 degrees Fahrenheit (6 Centigrade).
One widely held theory for the chill was the sudden release of a substantial amount of fresh water into the northern Atlantic. (end of quote)

Our climate has been changing since the dawn of time, and it is my estimating the height of human hubris by anyone to conclude that we know everything or every critical dynamic at work in the past and the future of this planet Earth.
Deal with it, and by all means go and learn more.
No I have not.The very people you are citing accept man caused global warming, and are concerned about identifying the most effective way to motivate people to change their behaviour and do something about it. You've completely misunderstood what this article is about; and turned it about face by 180 degrees.
The media is out of control on this topic and the dumb Dem's like President Bill Clinton ( I was in error by posting Hillary as the Clinton in question here.) and Tony Blair while recently in California are trying to cash in politically. (Now again, don't get me wrong on this, as an example London has too many cars and wasting gasoline and desires to reduce pollution is real and rational, and we should just call this common sense, not "saving the planet" from evil "greenhouse gases" and other hyped dubious newly created jargon that are clearly become political slogans.)
It remains to be seen if Al Gore runs again for President, but I have demonstrated many inconvenient facts that Al gore missed on purpose or neglected to study or factor into his Porn movie.
Thanks for your research efforts here and the citations and more evidence of hype and hysteria?
Is this really our biggest problem on the planet? Or, the best chance for the dumb Dem’s to win votes in 2008?
Try Islamist fascists mate, and they may want to cut your throat or blow up you and your mates on holiday to Bali?
I don't have any problem posting evidence for the hype and propaganda as reported by the liberal media.Those interested may like to look through it and see what they recommend. Simeon won't like it a bit. I just find it screamingly funny that he even cited this. Anything further removed from his head in the sand denial would be hard to imagine.
Cheers -- Sylas
Our climate is extremely complex and rational scientific study is required and I look for discussing hard science and the Politics of the Leftwing lunatics like Al Gore!Last edited by Simeon; August 5th 2006 at 03:14 PM.
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August 5th 2006, 05:27 PM #171
Re: Why liberals fear global warming far more than Conservatives do?
And yet, our planets temps have been rising since the last ice age, and as we discussed under Science, this would include the recorded fact that ice has been melting in Antarctica for 10,000 years!
Originally posted by sylas
Yes.
Ice sheets in North America and Europe had nearly all melted 10,000 years ago, but this process had only just started in West Antarctica at that time.
"The Ice Age never really came to an end in that part of the world," according to Professor Stone!
Did we cover this article?
Antarctica's ice sheet melting naturally
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) has been melting naturally and releasing water to the ocean for the last 10,000 years.
Research published in the journal Science suggests that the last Ice Age never really ended in that part of the world.
If the melting continues at its current rate then the WAIS could disappear in 7,000 years, possibly raising worldwide sea levels by five metres. (Hmmm, a dubious prediction forgetting off setting factors?)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/2624603.stm
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August 5th 2006, 05:33 PM #172
Re: Why liberals fear global warming far more than Conservatives do?
I neglected to provide the hotlink for this quote in Post 170.
http://www.livescience.com/forcesofn...evel_rise.html
See:How Global Warming Can Chill the Planet
By Sarah Davidson - LiveScience Staff Writer
Scientists hope new evidence of an ancient rise in sea level from a fresh water flood will tell them how global warming can lead to global cooling. A global cooling event was caused by global warming? Sounds strange. But that is exactly what scientists say happened.
The Earth was emerging from an ice age 8,200 years ago. Seas were warming and life was heating up. Then quite abruptly and for a relatively short period of time -- about 100 years -- the entire globe chilled down again, by almost 10.8 degrees Fahrenheit (6 Centigrade).
One widely held theory for the chill was the sudden release of a substantial amount of fresh water into the northern Atlantic. (end of quote)
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August 5th 2006, 07:05 PM #173
Re: Why liberals fear global warming far more than Conservatives do?
Just how much do you assert that global temps have risen?
Originally posted by sylas
Some have believed shocking ranges suggested from 2 - 3 degress.
Evidence? And, look it is not just the media caught this time hyping "global warming", and we will follow the scam of some scientists as they no doubt drive to cash in through grants to study the dubious "evidence" for this natural climatic change.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/4923504.stmLast edited by Simeon; August 5th 2006 at 07:07 PM.
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August 5th 2006, 11:33 PM #174
Re: Why liberals fear global warming far more than Conservatives do?
Just a follow up to the Politics involved, and quoting Steve McIntyre's Blog:
Originally posted by sylas
I’ve said over and over how frustrated I am that the due diligence of the NAS panel was so negligible and slight and that they relied on mere literature review for so much of their study. It’s ludicrous for them to say that bristlecones should be "avoided" in temperature reconstructions and then to "bring in other evidence" - a "half-dozen other reconstructions" that use bristlecones - without testing for the impact of bristlecones on these reconstructions. I’ll do the testing of the impact of bristlecones on the other reconstructions, but the NAS panel should have done it themselves.
Their report is most usable on specifics, where they make many useful comments, so their poor performance in one area does not make the report unusable in total and, to date, I’ve tried to focus mainly on the positive aspects of the report.
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=766
By Steve McIntyreLast edited by Simeon; August 5th 2006 at 11:36 PM.
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