Is Hillary Toast?

[Starlight]

Iowa today held a "youth caucus" in which more than 1600 high-school students across the state voted in mock caucuses. Results were:

Carson - 22%
Trump - 15%
Rubio - 15%
Paul - 14%
Cruz - 8%

Sanders - 53%
O'Malley - 24%
Hillary - 15%

On the Republican side, those results are very similar to what standard polling is reporting, except for Paul who is doing much better with the youth vote than he is in general polling (unsurprisingly since libertarianism has always been quite popular among college students).

On the Democratic side, those numbers are very very different to what standard polling is saying, however they agree with the common finding that Sanders dominates the youth vote while Hillary dominates the older demographics. This is actually becoming a very very serious problem for the accuracy of democratic primary polling in general: Polling agencies often try to be 'sure' that a person they are polling is actually going to vote in the primary, and the most common method of doing this is to ask them whether they have voted in previous primaries, with only people who have voted in the two (or even four) previous primaries being kept in the final poll results. However, this artificially excludes young people, and subsequently skews the polls along demographic lines.

[Cow Poke]

Iowa today held a "youth caucus" in which more than 1600 high-school students across the state voted in mock caucuses. Results were:

Carson - 22%
Trump - 15%
Rubio - 15%
Paul - 14%
Cruz - 8%

Sanders - 53%
O'Malley - 24%
Hillary - 15%

On the Republican side, those results are very similar to what standard polling is reporting, except for Paul who is doing much better with the youth vote than he is in general polling (unsurprisingly since libertarianism has always been quite popular among college students).

On the Democratic side, those numbers are very very different to what standard polling is saying, however they agree with the common finding that Sanders dominates the youth vote while Hillary dominates the older demographics. This is actually becoming a very very serious problem for the accuracy of democratic primary polling in general: Polling agencies often try to be 'sure' that a person they are polling is actually going to vote in the primary, and the most common method of doing this is to ask them whether they have voted in previous primaries, with only people who have voted in the two (or even four) previous primaries being kept in the final poll results. However, this artificially excludes young people, and subsequently skews the polls along demographic lines.

You used 'very very' twice, but only one 'very very' has the second 'very' italicized. This proves you are an Islamist.

[Starlight]

Interesting survey results out today about the popularity of different US Senators in their own states.

Bernie Sanders is the clear winner, with an approval and disapproval rating in his own state of 83% approve to 13% disapprove, giving him both the highest approval rating and lowest disapproval rating of any US Senator in their own state.

Compare to Republican presidential candidates:
Ted Cruz, 52% approve to 32% disapprove.
Lindsey Graham, 51% approve to 35% disapprove.
Marco Rubio, 50% approve to 33% disapprove.
Rand Paul, 48% approve to 37% disapprove.

And worst-performing Senator:
Mitch McConnell, 38% approve to 52% disapprove.

According to data here, Hillary Clinton's approval ratings in New York as Senator ranged from 64 to 74% approval and 23 to 34% disapproval during her time in office.


In other presidential-race news, Donald Trump and Ben Carson have still yet to achieve a "True" rating from the fact-checkers for any of their statements, despite having had 94 statements from them fact-checked. Meanwhile Bernie Sanders is winning by a landslide in an online poll to determine who should be Time Magazine's "Person of the Year", which is causing Donald Trump to whine about the fact that he's not even close to winning it (he should console himself with the fact that he's doing 50% better on it than Hillary is).

[Cow Poke]

Interesting survey results out today about the popularity of different US Senators in their own states.

Now, if they could only get the rest of the country NOT to vote, and get elected by their own states.....

[Cow Poke]

OK, Hillary MUST win, now!!!!

The Hillary Clinton campaign is out with an ad highlighting her record as an advocate for LGBT rights. The spot includes images of gay couples kissing each other.

The liberal website Slate praises Clinton for including same-sex kissing in her campaign ad, saying, “Given the distressingly puritanical rules that govern gay PDAs, it’s both impressive and heartening that Clinton includes gay kisses in her official campaign spots.”

And all liberals can now feel warm and fuzzy!

[Mountain Man]

That's disgusting. Makes me glad I don't watch TV.

[Psychic Missile]

OK, Hillary MUST win, now!!!!

The Hillary Clinton campaign is out with an ad highlighting her record as an advocate for LGBT rights. The spot includes images of gay couples kissing each other.

The liberal website Slate praises Clinton for including same-sex kissing in her campaign ad, saying, “Given the distressingly puritanical rules that govern gay PDAs, it’s both impressive and heartening that Clinton includes gay kisses in her official campaign spots.”

And all liberals can now feel warm and fuzzy!

I bet she hated Obergefell v. Hodges. She can't use gay marriage as a rallying cry.

[rogue06]

I bet she hated Obergefell v. Hodges. She can't use gay marriage as a rallying cry.

You actually raise a valid point. History shows that generally when one side wins a landmark court victory they aren't as motivated to participate in the next election cycle whereas the side that lost is usually now more energized.

[Adam]

What's Obergefell vs. Hodges and who won?