The weather for 2016

[shunyadragon]

Current trends indicate that the El Nino is ending and La Nina is emerging. This article has good graphs and temoerature records for April and May 2016 supporting this change is taking place.

Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC
DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 May 2016

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory/ La Niña Watch
Synopsis: La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Nina during the fall and winter 2016-17.

During the past month, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with near-to-below average SSTs recently emerging in the eastern Pacific (Fig. 1). The latest Niño region indices also reflect this decline, with the steepest decreases occurring in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions (Fig. 2). The surface cooling was largely driven by the expansion of below-average subsurface temperatures, which extended to the surface in the eastern Pacific (Figs. 3 and 4). While oceanic anomalies are clearly trending toward ENSO-neutral, many atmospheric anomalies were still consistent with El Niño, such as the negative equatorial and traditional Southern Oscillation indices. Upper-level easterly winds persisted over the central and eastern Pacific, while low-level winds were near average. Enhanced convection continued over the central tropical Pacific and was suppressed north of Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these anomalies reflect a weakening El Niño and a trend toward ENSO neutral conditons.
Most models predict the end of El Niño and a brief period of ENSO-neutral by early Northern Hemisphere summer (Fig. 6). The model consensus then calls for increasingly negative SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region as the summer and fall progress. However, there is clear uncertainty over the timing and intensity of a potential La Niña (3-month Niño-3.4 SST less than or equal to -0.5°C). The forecaster consensus favors La Niña onset during the summer, mainly weighting the dynamical models (such as NCEP CFSv2) and observed trends toward cooler-than-average conditions. Overall, La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Nina during the fall and winter 2016-17 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3 - month period).

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[shunyadragon]

the data will be out for June in a week or so. While we are waiting I thought would bring up Global rise in CO2. The elephant in the room is the dramatic rise in CO2 levels due to human influence.

Source: http://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/24/

The data will be out for June in a week or so, but while I am waiting I thought I would bring up the elephant in the room concerning the human influence on global climate change, the dramatic rise in atmospheric CO2 levels.

Ancient air bubbles trapped in ice enable us to step back in time and see what Earth's atmosphere, and climate, were like in the distant past. They tell us that levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere are higher than they have been at any time in the past 400,000 years. During ice ages, CO2 levels were around 200 parts per million (ppm), and during the warmer interglacial periods, they hovered around 280 ppm (see fluctuations in the graph). In 2013, CO2 levels surpassed 400 ppm for the first time in recorded history. This recent relentless rise in CO2 shows a remarkably constant relationship with fossil-fuel burning, and can be well accounted for based on the simple premise that about 60 percent of fossil-fuel emissions stay in the air.

Today, we stand on the threshold of a new geologic era, which some term the "Anthropocene", one where the climate is very different to the one our ancestors knew.

If fossil-fuel burning continues at a business-as-usual rate, such that humanity exhausts the reserves over the next few centuries, CO2 will continue to rise to levels of order of 1500 ppm. The atmosphere would then not return to pre-industrial levels even tens of thousands of years into the future. This graph not only conveys the scientific measurements, but it also underscores the fact that humans have a great capacity to change the climate and planet.

Credit
Data: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Some description adapted from the Scripps CO2 Program website, "Keeling Curve Lessons."

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http://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/24/

The graphic of the site is very impressive.

Also we need a break from Jorge's science fiction lessons.

[HumbleThinker]

Not sure if this has been linked to before, but I've found this site a good resource on climate change including news and rebuttals to common arguments against AGW. http://www.skepticalscience.com/

The general trends as far as the arguments go seem to be that the consensus predictions on various markers of climate change have actually been too conservative and that the arguments against tend to rely on anomaly hunting, expert cherry picking, and/or misinterpreting (unintentionally or intentionally) scientific findings similar to what happened with leaded gasoline and cigarettes.

[stfoskey15]

It looks like the past six months have been pretty warm across most of the globe. Unfortunately, data seems pretty limited across much of South America and Africa.

(From the Alaska Climate Info Facebook page)

[shunyadragon]

It looks like the past six months have been pretty warm across most of the globe. Unfortunately, data seems pretty limited across much of South America and Africa.

(From the Alaska Climate Info Facebook page)

I believe one of the reason for the lack of temperature monitoring the tropical belt of South America and Asia is Rain Forest tropical temperatures do not vary as much of the rest of the world this is also true of the Antarctic temperatures, and to a lesser extent the Arctic.

[shunyadragon]

Source: http://reason.com/blog/2016/07/01/june-2016-was-2nd-warmest-june-in-satell

June 2016 Was 2nd Warmest June in Satellite Record: Global Temperature Trend Update

Although global temperatures fell rapidly from May to June as the El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event fades, June 2016 was nonetheless the second warmest June in the satellite temperature record, according to the press release from the University of Alabama Huntsville. June 2016 trailed June 1998 by 0.23 C, according to Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at UAH. Compared to seasonal norms, however, June 2016 was the 30th warmest month overall since the satellite temperature dataset began in December 1978.

June 2016 also was the second warmest on record in the Northern Hemisphere (0.51 C compared to June 1998 at 0.60 C above seasonal norms), but the eighth warmest June in the Southern Hemisphere and, despite the El Niño remnants, only the sixth warmest June in the tropics. The graphic below compares how temperature trends evolved during the big El Nino back in 1997/1998 and the current one that is now fading. If temperatures continue to decline as steeply, predictions that 2016 will be the warmest year in the satellite record will likely not come true.

UAH1998v2016
UAH

Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.12 C per decade

June temperatures (preliminary)

Global composite temp.: +0.34 C (about 0.61 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for June.

Northern Hemisphere: +0.51 C (about 0.92 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for June.

Southern Hemisphere: +0.17 C (about 0.79 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for June.

Tropics: +.38 C (about 0.68 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for June.

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[shunyadragon]

Source: https://weather.com/news/news/noaa-report-june-temperatures-record-warmth

June 2016 Was Warmest on Record for Lower 48, NOAA Says

June 2016 was the hottest on record for the contiguous United States, scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information announced on Thursday.

At an average temperature of 71.8 degrees Fahrenheit, the June record was broken with none of the Lower 48 turning in below-average temperatures for the month. NOAA said 17 states in the West, Great Plains and Southeast were well above average, rising the national average temperature to the highest ever recorded for the month of June.


June 1933 was previously the warmest NOAA had ever recorded, at 71.56 degrees. June 2015 is now the third-warmest on record, at 71.4 degrees.

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[TheLurch]

NASA now has the June numbers up:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ta...LB.Ts+dSST.txt

Things have dropped down to "well, it's record heat, but it's not ludicrously above the previous record" territory. Specifically, it's only 0.01ºC above last June, which is probably within the margin of error. Last June was when the El Niño was starting to kick in; now it's on the way out.

Still, it being a record for June means that it preserves the streak of months with record temperatures. Starting last October, which was the hottest October on record, every month since has set a new record - that's 8 in a row.

[sylas]

My guesstimate:

2016 will be even hotter than 2015. That's a big call; because 2015 was a huge spike in temperatures; generally we'd expect things to cool down a bit after a big spike. I do expect a cool down; but I think it may well be in 2017 rather than 2016. El Nino generally seems to have a slightly delayed effect on global temperatures; which means that even as the current El Nino fades, its effects should continue well into 2016... which means 2016 is very likely to be another hot year (mean global anomaly).

Nice call by me, back in January! I admit I lucked out somewhat; short term predictions are a good way to loose your shirt. Looking at this now, with six months data in, the odds of 2016 setting a new record over and above 2015 are very strong. The coming cooler years (probably 2017 and 2018) will be markedly cooler than 2015/2016.... but I don't expect them to fall back below what we were seeing through 2010-2014. La Nina will bring in a cooler global anomaly to mark the end of the El Nino spike; but the underlying global warming trend goes on. Ocean temperatures confirm this; they are still soaking up lots of extra heat thanks to the enhanced greenhouse effect.)

Cheers -- sylas

[shunyadragon]

The NOAA Analysis for June 2016 is in on https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201606

Source: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201606

Warmer to much-warmer-than-average conditions dominated across much of the globe's surface, resulting in the highest temperature departure for June since global temperature records began in 1880. This was also the 14th consecutive month the monthly global temperature record has been broken—the longest such streak in NOAA's 137 years of record keeping. The June 2016 combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces was 0.90°C (1.62°F) above the 20th century average, besting the previous record set in 2015 by 0.02°C (0.04°F). June 2016 marks the 40th consecutive June with temperatures at least nominally above the 20th century average. The last time June global land and ocean temperatures were below average was in 1976 (-0.07°C / -0.13°F). June 2016 tied with March 2015 as the ninth highest monthly temperature departure among all months (1,638) on record. Overall, 14 of the 15 highest monthly temperature departures in the record have all occurred since February 2015, with January 2007 among the 15 highest monthly temperature departures. June 2016 also marks the 378th consecutive month with temperatures at least nominally above the 20th century average. The last month with temperatures below the 20th century average was December 1984 (-0.09°C / -0.16°F).

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[Roy]

Nice call by me, back in January! I admit I lucked out somewhat; short term predictions are a good way to loose your shirt.

[Princess bride] Yes, you're very smart. Shut up. [/Princess bride]

[shunyadragon]

The following is an interesting site on the trends of el ninos and la ninas over recent history, The graphs show a cyclic progressive increasing intensity of the Oceanic el ninos in a ~9-15 year cycle.

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

I would show the graph, but I do not know how to do that,

[shunyadragon]

Where are we at concerning the el nino/la nina transition?

Source: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_update_latest.html

WMO El Niño/La Niña Update

Current Situation and Outlook

The previously strong 2015-16 El Niño is now weakening rapidly. However it is still likely to influence climate patterns in some regions until mid-year. Climate prediction models indicate a return to ENSO-neutral during May 2016, with odds now increasing of La Niña development in the third quarter. A resurgence of El Niño is highly unlikely in 2016. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months.

Ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean exceeded +2.0 degrees Celsius above average between October 2015 and February 2016, but are now in the process of returning to ENSO-neutral levels. In early May, these areas had cooled to between +0.5 degrees Celsius and +1.0 degrees Celsius above average.

Atmospheric indicators that showed very strong El Niño patterns early in the year had weakened significantly towards ENSO-neutral values by early May. Such indicators include lower than normal atmospheric pressure across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, weakened and on occasion reversed low-level Pacific trade winds, and above-average cloudiness and increased rainfall near and east of the International Date Line. Historically, El Niño events often persist through much of the first quarter of the year following their development – and occasionally into the second quarter - before returning to neutral. Because of the strength of this El Niño, it has persisted through early May, albeit at weak levels, but the situation will likely return to neutral levels before the end of May.

Between January and early May 2016, temperatures below the surface of the tropical Pacific, to the east of the International Date Line, transitioned from being well above average to below average, as cool waters at depth in the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean expanded both eastward and upwards towards the surface. In the eastern quarter of the tropical Pacific, surface waters have recently become cooler than average. While the surface waters in the central and east-central Pacific currently remain warmer than average, below average sea temperatures exist at shallow depths, suggesting that the surface waters are likely to cool further in the coming months. Historically, La Niña has followed several strong El Niño events, including the 1997-98 event.

Currently, all dynamical and statistical prediction models surveyed predict that the sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean will cool further in the coming months, with many models predicting temperatures to be in the range of -0.5 to +0.5 degrees Celsius from average during the overlapping 3-month periods May- July and June-August. Beginning in the July-September period and continuing through the remainder of 2016, more than half of the models predict east-central tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures will drop to more than 0.5 degrees Celsius below average, indicative of at least weak La Niña conditions. However, some uncertainty remains as forecasts made at this time of the year typically have less accuracy than those made during the second half of the year.

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On possible consequence of the coming La Nina years is the hurricane freqency may increase, particularly next year.

[TheLurch]

July's NASA numbers are out. Once again, hottest July on record. Gavin Schmidt, who runs NASA's Goddard Institute, indicates we're now at the point where 2016 has a 99% chance of being a new record:
https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/s...37770839269378

[shunyadragon]

From NASA

Source: http://climate.nasa.gov/news/2465/2016-climate-trends-continue-to-break-records/

Two key climate change indicators — global surface temperatures and Arctic sea ice extent — have broken numerous records through the first half of 2016, according to NASA analyses of ground-based observations and satellite data.

Each of the first six months of 2016 set a record as the warmest respective month globally in the modern temperature record, which dates to 1880, according to scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. The six-month period from January to June was also the planet's warmest half-year on record, with an average temperature 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the late nineteenth century.


Each of the first six months of 2016 set a record as the warmest respective month globally in the modern temperature record, which dates to 1880. Meanwhile, five of the first six months set records for the smallest monthly Arctic sea ice extent since consistent satellite records began in 1979. This video is public domain and can be downloaded from the Scientific Visualization Studio.

Five of the first six months of 2016 also set records for the smallest respective monthly Arctic sea ice extent since consistent satellite records began in 1979, according to analyses developed by scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, in Greenbelt, Maryland. The one exception, March, recorded the second smallest extent for that month.

While these two key climate indicators have broken records in 2016, NASA scientists said it is more significant that global temperature and Arctic sea ice are continuing their decades-long trends of change. Both trends are ultimately driven by rising concentrations of heat-trapping carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

The extent of Arctic sea ice at the peak of the summer melt season now typically covers 40 percent less area than it did in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Arctic sea ice extent in September, the seasonal low point in the annual cycle, has been declining at a rate of 13.4 percent per decade.

"While the El Niño event in the tropical Pacific this winter gave a boost to global temperatures from October onwards, it is the underlying trend which is producing these record numbers," GISS Director Gavin Schmidt said.

Previous El Niño events have driven temperatures to what were then record levels, such as in 1998. But in 2016, even as the effects of the recent El Niño taper off, global temperatures have risen well beyond those of 18 years ago because of the overall warming that has taken place in that time.

The first six months of 2016 were the warmest six-month period in NASA's modern temperature record, which dates to 1880. Credit: NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

The first six months of 2016 were the warmest six-month period in NASA's modern temperature record, which dates to 1880. Credit: NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

The global trend in rising temperatures is outpaced by the regional warming in the Arctic, said Walt Meier, a sea ice scientist at NASA Goddard.

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