The strange greatness of Donald Trump

[oxmixmudd]

I am truly impressed by your ability to read the second graf as "wide eyed adulation."

But not nearly as impressed as I am at the ability of some to read the content of my more recent posts in other threads as "launching a hate-fest against Trump"


Jim

[Cow Poke]

But not nearly as impressed as I am at the ability of some to read the content of my more recent posts in other threads as "launching a hate-fest against Trump"


Jim

walks like it, quacks like it...

[One Bad Pig]

But not nearly as impressed as I am at the ability of some to read the content of my more recent posts in other threads as "launching a hate-fest against Trump"


Jim

I will grant that "launching" is about 2 years in the past at this point....

[oxmixmudd]

walks like it, quacks like it...

you really need to put down the hatchet and try a fresh look at what you are seeing. It isn't what you think it is.

Jim

[grmorton]

Run along, Jim -- go back to your "I hate Trump" threads.

I have never understood never trumpers like my friend Jim, and a few members of my family. I wasn't voting for preacher in chief, or dignity incorporated when I chose Trump over Hillary. I was voting for a person I hoped would actually FIGHT for the conservative ideas rather than do what most republicans do, say they are conservative and then go do what the dems want because THAT IS BIPARTISANSHIP!!!. I was so sick of republicans that I took a chance on Trump.

Never Trumpers often say they are anti-abortion---but won't consider Trump even though he has done more for slowing abortion than any republican I know of. They would rather the party of infanticide (kill em now or kill em later) win the election rather than Trump. In their eyes, Trump is more evil than what would happen if the infanticide party gained control. They seem not to care at all that the most dangerous place in this world for a black child to be, is in the womb.

Never trumpers say they want jobs for our inner city folk---yet when Trumps economy shows record low unemployment for Blacks, Hispanics and Asians, they still don't like him--call him racist.

Christian never Trumpers say they want the law followed,---but seem unfazed by millions pouring over the border, breaking our laws with one footstep. And these people do take inner city jobs.


Christian never Trumpers say that they don't want human trafficking--but they are unwilling to support the man trying to break the power of the cartels who rape and abuse Guatamalan and Honduran women on the trip north and who import foreign sex workers into our country.


Never Trumpers seem not to realize we live in a fallen world and sometimes it takes a real you know what to fight to fix those problems. Never Trumpers are just a bit too prissy for my taste.

[Cow Poke]

I have never understood never trumpers like my friend Jim, and a few members of my family. I wasn't voting for preacher in chief, or dignity incorporated when I chose Trump over Hillary. I was voting for a person I hoped would actually FIGHT for the conservative ideas rather than do what most republicans do, say they are conservative and then go do what the dems want because THAT IS BIPARTISANSHIP!!!. I was so sick of republicans that I took a chance on Trump.

Never Trumpers often say they are anti-abortion---but won't consider Trump even though he has done more for slowing abortion than any republican I know of. They would rather the party of infanticide (kill em now or kill em later) win the election rather than Trump. In their eyes, Trump is more evil than what would happen if the infanticide party gained control.

Never trumpers say they want jobs for our inner city folk---yet when Trumps economy shows record low unemployment for Blacks, Hispanics and Asians, they still don't like him--call him racist.

Christian never Trumpers say they want the law followed,---but seem unfazed by millions pouring over the border, breaking our laws with one footstep. And these people do take inner city jobs.


Christian never Trumpers say that they don't want human trafficking--but they are unwilling to support the man trying to break the power of the cartels who rape and abuse Guatamalan and Honduran women on the trip north and who import foreign sex workers into our country.


Never Trumpers seem not to realize we live in a fallen world and sometimes it takes a real you know what to fight to fix those problems. Never Trumpers are just a bit too prissy for my taste.

First - GREAT to see you!

Secondly, you bring up an excellent point that I've been thinking about all day, and this is a good opportunity to express it.

He is a friend.

I believe he's consumed with hate for Trump, but I also believe he's a genuinely good man and a brother in Christ.



Jim - I apologize for the way I've been addressing you.

I'm going to do my best to avoid interaction with you involving Trump. I'd request you reciprocate.

Thanks

[grmorton]

First - GREAT to see you!

Secondly, you bring up an excellent point that I've been thinking about all day, and this is a good opportunity to express it.

He is a friend.

I believe he's consumed with hate for Trump, but I also believe he's a genuinely good man and a brother in Christ.



Jim - I apologize for the way I've been addressing you.

I'm going to do my best to avoid interaction with you involving Trump. I'd request you reciprocate.

Thanks

Jim is a friend of mine, too--I think you met him at my ranch. My post was not just about Jim though because I have a few never trumpers in my family. I don't understand what has blinded them to the good results, they say they want, but getting them from Trump is not what they want! Sheesh. Take the points and the wins and be happy.

Good to talk to you again

[Cow Poke]

Jim is a friend of mine, too--I think you met him at my ranch.

Yes sir, that's what triggered my response. Good memories!

My post was not just about Jim though because I have a few never trumpers in my family.

I know -- it just caught my attention when you said "my friend Jim".

I don't understand what has blinded them to the good results, they say they want, but getting them from Trump is not what they want! Sheesh. Take the points and the wins and be happy.

Like you said -- I didn't vote for him for pastor-in-chief, or because of his morals (or lack thereof). As I have stated repeatedly, I voted for him for two reasons...

A) Hillary wouldn't be POTUS
2) SCOTUS wouldn't be Hillary's

Check on both counts!!!

Good to talk to you again

My schedule has finally slowed down a bit -- are you up for lunch?

[Rushing Jaws]

The strange greatness of Donald Trump

I may as well concede up front that, because I'm not pitching wild-eyed hissies and launching a hate-fest against Trump, and I post an opinion that also does not do that, then I am obviously a die-hard Trump supporter in every sense of the word!

[carpedm9587]

I have never understood never trumpers like my friend Jim, and a few members of my family. I wasn't voting for preacher in chief, or dignity incorporated when I chose Trump over Hillary. I was voting for a person I hoped would actually FIGHT for the conservative ideas rather than do what most republicans do, say they are conservative and then go do what the dems want because THAT IS BIPARTISANSHIP!!!. I was so sick of republicans that I took a chance on Trump.

Never Trumpers often say they are anti-abortion---but won't consider Trump even though he has done more for slowing abortion than any republican I know of. They would rather the party of infanticide (kill em now or kill em later) win the election rather than Trump. In their eyes, Trump is more evil than what would happen if the infanticide party gained control. They seem not to care at all that the most dangerous place in this world for a black child to be, is in the womb.

So I'd be curious how you measure this claim for Trump. The last year for which we have statistics that I can find is 2015. Abortion dropped 26% between 2006 and 2015. Among teenagers the drop was more than 50%. So what, exactly, has Trump done?

Never trumpers say they want jobs for our inner city folk---yet when Trumps economy shows record low unemployment for Blacks, Hispanics and Asians, they still don't like him--call him racist.

Trump's racism is well documented and predates his occupation of his current office. I'd also be curious how you attribute these historical lows to Trump. As with most economic stories, the drop in black unemployment was well underway before Trump took office. It dropped from a peak of 16.8% in March of 2010 (when unemployment in general peaked) to 7.7% in January of 2017, the last month Obama was in office. That's a drop of 8.1 points in about 7 years. It has dropped one more point to the current 6.7 (thought it did go all the way to 6.0 before popping back up) in 2+ years. So if you are attributing unemployment levels to presidential policies, Obama policies accounted for 8.1 points of drop at a rate of slightly more than 1 point per year, and Trump policies have accounted for 1 point of drop at a rate of less than one half point per year.

Meanwhile, Obama policies inflated the national debt at a time of severe recession (which is pretty normal), and Trump's (and the Republican) policies are inflating the debt by $1T per year in a time of economic recovery. So I see Trump doing what he usually does - taking credit for a situation that was mostly the result of someone else's work. Essentially, he bought a few nice sounding numbers and can claim "record levels" at a cost of a $1T infusion using debt as the vehicle.

Christian never Trumpers say they want the law followed,---but seem unfazed by millions pouring over the border, breaking our laws with one footstep. And these people do take inner city jobs.

Christian never Trumpers say that they don't want human trafficking--but they are unwilling to support the man trying to break the power of the cartels who rape and abuse Guatamalan and Honduran women on the trip north and who import foreign sex workers into our country.

Never Trumpers seem not to realize we live in a fallen world and sometimes it takes a real you know what to fight to fix those problems. Never Trumpers are just a bit too prissy for my taste.

The rest of these I cannot find data for, but I find it a little hard to believe Trump is the first to tackle any of these issues. Indeed, it's not even clear to me exactly how Trump IS tackling these issues...

[seer]

Trump's racism is well documented and predates his occupation of his current office. I'd also be curious how you attribute these historical lows to Trump. As with most economic stories, the drop in black unemployment was well underway before Trump took office. It dropped from a peak of 16.8% in March of 2010 (when unemployment in general peaked) to 7.7% in January of 2017, the last month Obama was in office. That's a drop of 8.1 points in about 7 years. It has dropped one more point to the current 6.7 (thought it did go all the way to 6.0 before popping back up) in 2+ years. So if you are attributing unemployment levels to presidential policies, Obama policies accounted for 8.1 points of drop at a rate of slightly more than 1 point per year, and Trump policies have accounted for 1 point of drop at a rate of less than one half point per year.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...gdp-in-the-us/

[carpedm9587]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...gdp-in-the-us/

Your first statement is accurate. Your conclusion is not supported by your evidence, and you have your cause/effect backwards.

First, there is only one reason there is a statistical relationship between GDP and recession - and that is because a recession is defined as "two consecutive quarters of negative GDP." GDP is generally not a predictor of recession - it is the metric we use to define "recession." Indeed, one of the best indicators of a pending recession is the inverse yield curve. It has accurately predicted a recession for decades now. It inverted in 2006 and the recession followed 17 months later. It never inverted in Obama's term, but it inverted again last December. If its predictive value is accurate, it means a recession in the next 7-19 months (14 months average, 4.69 months standard deviation).

Second, in the midst of the recovery, we had two back-to-back quarters of 0.5% growth (2012). Clearly low GDP was not an indicator of a pending recession because it was followed by seven of the next 10 quarters above 3% growth (something Trump has yet to do - despite all of his promises and a skyrocketing national debt).

You do this frequently, Seer. Sparko calls it "hand-waving" your data away. It's not. What you often do is go out and farm accurate data - and then either misapply it or attempt to use it to make a point that doesn't in any way address the comments made.

[seer]

Your first statement is accurate. Your conclusion is not supported by your evidence, and you have your cause/effect backwards.

First, there is only one reason there is a statistical relationship between GDP and recession - and that is because a recession is defined as "two consecutive quarters of negative GDP." GDP is generally not a predictor of recession - it is the metric we use to define "recession."

Second, in the midst of the recovery, we had two back-to-back quarters of 0.5% growth (2012). Clearly low GDP was not an indicator of a pending recession because it was followed by seven of the next 10 quarters above 3% growth (something Trump has yet to do - despite all of his promises and a skyrocketing national debt).

You do this frequently, Seer. Sparko calls it "hand-waving" your data away. It's not. What you often do is go out and farm accurate data - and then either misapply it or attempt to use it to make a point that doesn't in any way address the comments made.

Nonsense Carp, growth was certainly slowing, actually quite a lot - seven quarters. Would we have actually gone into another recession? Who knows, thankfully Trump saved that day. After he was elected, and after taking office, consumer confidence eventually reached 18 year highs. Which is a pretty good indicators of future growth. And like I said Obama did little to spur business growth except QE, which mostly benefited the rich whom you hate.

[carpedm9587]

Nonsense Carp,

Do you guys actually think starting your posts with such comments actually contributes to your argument?

growth was certainly slowing, actually quite a lot - seven quarters.

You have a strange definition of "slowing." SO here are the GDP growth rates for those seven quarters:

1%
0.4%
1.5%
2.3%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%

The lowest of these are the first two quarters, and we had other quarters during the recovery that were even lower. The average for the seven quarter series is 1.53%. Five of the seven quarters are above that mark. If you plot these as a running average, you get:

1%
0.7%
0.97%
1.3%
1.42%
1.48%
1.53%

I know of no mathematician or economist who would call this "shrinking" or "slowing." Nor, as I noted, is there any historical causal or predictive link between GDP and recessions. Indeed, GDP doesn't predict a recession - it defines it. And the best predictive element never happened in Obama's term and has now happened in Trump's - a point I notice you skipped over.

Would we have actually gone into another recession? Who knows, thankfully Trump saved that day.

So you just thanked Trump for saving a day you just acknowledged you have no idea would ever have happened. That is more than a little odd.

After he was elected, and after taking office, consumer confidence eventually reached 18 year highs. Which is a pretty good indicators of future growth.

Now you have to show that the increased consumer confidence was due to Trump, rather than simply due to the regular, steady economic growth and positive economic indicators we had been seeing for seven straight years. That will be a hard case to make given that consumer confidence has generally been rising since 2009. Again, Trump taking credit for a trend already well on its way.

And the link between consumer confidence and growth/recession is a complex one at best. The case can be made that confidence grows with growth and shrinks with recession, and it can be made that confidence (in part) causes growth and recession. And brace yourself, consumer confidence is on the decline.

The problem with Republicans was that growth wasn't happening fast enough for them, so they needed to roll back all of the regulatory protections were were putting in to protect ourselves from more bank excesses, more befouling of our air, and jolt the deficit back to trillion dollar levels so they could gain an average of one half point of GDP and an additional 1 point drop in unemployment, which was already just above record levels.

For many of us, the cost of this money-only metric is too high. There were enough of us to take back the House in 2018, despite the extensive Republican gerrymandering. There will be enough of us to take back the executive in 2020. My fear is that there will be enough to take back a trifecta - which I think would be bad. Hopefully, that will not happen.

And like I said Obama did little to spur business growth except QE, which mostly benefited the rich whom you hate.

Right - I "hate the rich."

Is that really the best argument you guys can make? Put words into someone's mouth and then point and say, "see...see...bad carpe...bad carpe."

It's not much of an argument...

[seer]

Do you guys actually think starting your posts with such comments actually contributes to your argument?



You have a strange definition of "slowing." SO here are the GDP growth rates for those seven quarters:

1%
0.4%
1.5%
2.3%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%

The lowest of these are the first two quarters, and we had other quarters during the recovery that were even lower. The average for the seven quarter series is 1.53%. Five of the seven quarters are above that mark. If you plot these as a running average, you get:

1%
0.7%
0.97%
1.3%
1.42%
1.48%
1.53%

I know of no mathematician or economist who would call this "shrinking" or "slowing." Nor, as I noted, is there any historical causal or predictive link between GDP and recessions. Indeed, GDP doesn't predict a recession - it defines it. And the best predictive element never happened in Obama's term and has now happened in Trump's - a point I notice you skipped over.

Of course it was slowing from the previous growth under Obama, look at the previous 5 quarters, or average all the quarters before the last 7. It was better than the 1.4 average at the end of Obama's reign. And if you have negative growth for two consecutive quarters, which was where we were possibly heading, you have recession. And what has happened under Trump?

So you just thanked Trump for saving a day you just acknowledged you have no idea would ever have happened. That is more than a little odd.

Yes, we don't always know. The economy was slowing though, it isn't now.

Now you have to show that the increased consumer confidence was due to Trump, rather than simply due to the regular, steady economic growth and positive economic indicators we had been seeing for seven straight years. The problem with Republicans was it wasn't happening fast enough for them, so they needed to roll back all of the regulatory protections were were putting in to protect ourselves from more bank excesses, more befouling of our air, and jolt the deficit back to trillion dollar levels so they could gain an average of one half point of GDP and an additional 1 point drop in unemployment, which was already just above record levels.

Simple question Carp, are more regulations and higher taxes generally better or worse for business growth?