Coronavirus Outbreak...

[lilpixieofterror]

OK...I'm sorry - but I just can't resist. The numbers seem to be showing that it is largely Democrats and Independents who are taking this seriously and most Republicans (especially Trump's base) are swallowing the party line coming from Trump (i.e., we have it under control). Therefore, I wouldn't be surprised to see a significant differential in deaths along party lines. Unlike the climate issue, which takes everyone down equally if the claims of the scientific community are correct, this pandemic will disproportionately kill the weakest and the most foolish, if the projections prove to be correct.

Wouldn't that help with the election in November?

ETA: BTW, thanks for your analysis. I found it enlightening.

And whose fault is that? The media has spent years getting people into a panic, over nothing, so if this turns out to be as bad as worse case suggest, much of the blame lays at the feet at the people that have spent years creating crisis, out of nothing and stroking their fears. When the wolf finally shows up, no one listens.

[demi-conservative]

'''''''''''''''Experts''''''''''''''''''''' and their useless numbers.

It's all they have, but the numbers are useless.

[lilpixieofterror]

thanks.

as for the election, I've been avoiding speculation along those lines. Mainly because there are a lot of people that will die from this. It's just too real for that sort of thing for me.

However, it is very, very sad that allegiance to the ignorance we see in conservative direction may well be a factor in the probability of one's own death ( or the death of friends of family members) from this pandemic.

The recklessness we've observed in presidential briefings, in comments from prominent Republicans (Nunes etc) are nothing less than gross negligence. The extent to which feet are being dragged in deference to various industry lobbyists, even now, and the focus still on playing to the desire for greater profits (e.g. not fully mandating sick leave to relieve the pressure to work while sick) are simply beyond comprehension.

The recklessness sits as much at your feet, as you accuse it sitting at the feet of MM.

[Sparko]

Some disgusting young people are referring to the coronavirus as the "boomer remover"

[demi-conservative]

So if there are, say, 37 known cases, there are probably upwards of 2,500.

Lots of people are going to get infected - probably at least 30% up, maybe up to 60%. IF that happens slowly, due to social distancing, lockdowns in hot spots, other mitigating measures, then we're set for 1% or less death rate

If the numbers are understated by about 100 times, then the death rate is overstated by about a hundred times. Therefore the actual death rate is about 0.01%, one in ten thousand, as demi has said weeks ago.

[Zymologist]

Some disgusting young people are referring to the coronavirus as the "boomer remover"

Reprehensible.

[carpedm9587]

thanks.

as for the election, I've been avoiding speculation along those lines. Mainly because there are a lot of people that will die from this. It's just too real for that sort of thing for me.

However, it is very, very sad that allegiance to the ignorance we see in conservative direction may well be a factor in the probability of one's own death ( or the death of friends of family members) from this pandemic.

The recklessness we've observed in presidential briefings, in comments from prominent Republicans (Nunes etc) are nothing less than gross negligence. The extent to which feet are being dragged in deference to various industry lobbyists, even now, and the focus still on playing to the desire for greater profits (e.g. not fully mandating sick leave to relieve the pressure to work while sick) are simply beyond comprehension.

My post was meant to be facetious - but it was probably more than a little in bad taste. My apologies to all. I do wish that those who are promulgating bad information would stop doing it. I truly believe it is going to get people killed. But in this age an hyper-partisanship, and with Trump setting the tone, I doubt it will end anytime soon.

[carpedm9587]

And whose fault is that? The media has spent years getting people into a panic, over nothing, so if this turns out to be as bad as worse case suggest, much of the blame lays at the feet at the people that have spent years creating crisis, out of nothing and stroking their fears. When the wolf finally shows up, no one listens.

The fact of hyper-escalating news stories is not limited to any one side of the political divide. It is a function of 24-hour news cycles and the need for these stations to show a profit and maintain an audience. Fox does it. CNN does it. Heck, the Weather Channel does it. We the people reward this behavior with our viewership - so we essentially reap what we sow.

[Mountain Man]

I'm not sure what joke you are referring to here. AFAIK, the only posts I fact checked were the ones where you were making an argument. Can you clarify?

http://www.theologyweb.com/campus/sh...559#post718559

[carpedm9587]

Some disgusting young people are referring to the coronavirus as the "boomer remover"

Sadly - that will likely be true. I guess every cloud has a silver lining. The is a significant possibility that this pandemic will lay to rest the "social security running out of money" problem.

[demi-conservative]

It's amazing how the experts all said that Chinese data is crap, then turned on a dime to rely on mainly Chinese data to make their ''''''''''''''''''''expert''''''''''''''''' predictions.

Maybe by now we are starting to get enough good data from Italy. Still, trusting the experts after their nonsense is for the idiotic.

[Sparko]

Sadly - that will likely be true. I guess every cloud has a silver lining. The is a significant possibility that this pandemic will lay to rest the "social security running out of money" problem.

Wow. really? right after you apologized for being insensitive?

smh.

[carpedm9587]

http://www.theologyweb.com/campus/sh...559#post718559

Ummm....that wasn't a "fact check." It was a commentary on the number in the "joke." Many people do not appreciate that a 99.5% survival rate is a 0.5% morality rate, which is five people out of every 1000 or 1 out of every 200. When you translate those numbers to the population of the U.S., even at a 25% infection rate, the number of deaths is significant. In other words, the "joke" hides a grim truth. That was the point of the post - not a fact check.

[carpedm9587]

Wow. really? right after you apologized for being insensitive?

smh.

That wasn't a joke, Sparko. It was an observation that the comments of the young that were cited were likely to be somewhat prophetic. It is a grim reality that even the worst situation will have some tangential benefits. That doesn't mean I am hoping for the cataclysm to obtain those benefits. It merely means I am noting their probability.

Frankly, I am IN that higher-risk population. If I get this, at 60+ and with a compromised set of lungs, my probability of succumbing to the virus is not trivial.

ETA: I'll note it's also a reality that this pandemic is tanking the economy and that, coupled with increasingly broad perception that Trump is badly mismanaging this situation, likely means his hopes of re-election in November have just shrunk significantly. I consider that a silver lining. It doesn't mean I WANT the pandemic because it will likely lead to the end of the Trump presidency. Frankly, I wish we HAD competent leadership during this situation. But Trump cannot look past himself to truly see to the needs of anyone else. It's all about the media to him - and the numbers - and how much people like him and are loyal to him.

[Mountain Man]

It's amazing how the experts all said that Chinese data is crap, then turned on a dime to rely on mainly Chinese data to make their ''''''''''''''''''''expert''''''''''''''''' predictions.

Maybe by now we are starting to get enough good data from Italy. Still, trusting the experts after their nonsense is for the idiotic.

Every expert pronouncement starts with the unstated premise "If our unproven assumptions are true...".

I'm just looking at what I see happening in the real world and making the best decisions I can for me and my family.