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  • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
    I wasn’t aware that the entire country was opened up or opened up for three weeks.
    All states that were under lockdown are now moving out of it. Some before ever actually seeing a real down turn. The ones opening the Earliest (+ the ones that never closed) are 3 weeks past the point where they were under lock down. We are gradually adding activity across the us.

    2 weeks is a 95% confidence MAXIMUM incubation. Typical incubation is just 4 to 5 days pix. We've had more than enough time that has passed to begin to see the impact of the reopening in the data.

    The average slope of the new daily cases is now slightly positive. The turn began around may 9, a week after reopening. It was on a shallow downward trend:

    US daily cases chart 05222020.jpg
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 05-22-2020, 12:19 PM.
    My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

    If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

    This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

    Comment


    • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
      Oh I have no doubt about that. We live in a "me-first" society today. So as the confinement has lagged on and people have begun to ask "what's in this for me?" it is inevitable that we would see this kind of fatigue and resistance.
      Or...

      They are business owners watching their business crumble

      Or...

      They can’t afford to live at home, for months on end.

      Or...

      They see they have a low risk to themselves and decide its worth it to not end up losing their homes.

      Or...

      They see the rise in homelessness, child abuse, spouse abuse, suicide, and economic destruction and want things to change.

      Nah, that can’t be it. They must be all selfish and uncaring! Yep, that’s it and thus your disconnect from your opponents. You don’t understand them, but freely pass judgment upon them. Even when your assertions are ridiculous and ignore science themselves.

      Well...we need to reduce interactions until there is a way to protect all of the most vulnerable, whatever form that takes. Ideally, we would have a comprehensive testing strategy because those who have already had and survived the virus need no longer observe a lockdown. But there is no energy for this and we get the inevitable "my civil liberties" push back.
      We need to listen to the data and the data says person living in a nursing home, hospice care, or long term care is in the biggest danger. A large part of all deaths, in the US and the world, is from that group. That’s important and tells us what groups we should protect. We need to test staff members, watch them carefully for illness, only allow guest already proved negative allowed in, clean regularly, etc. That should cut our deaths down drastically. Shutting down business, filling skateparks with sand, and arresting barbers will likely do far less.

      We now live in a society that cares more about itself than it's neighbors. It is a sad commentary on our society.
      Or...

      You don’t understand your opponents and prefer strawman that makes them look bad. One of my friends is totally against it, I don’t agree with her, but I understand her view. She suffered horrific abuse as a child, till someone figured it out and she and her siblings were sent to their grandparents. Her concern is abused children are suffering and with being locked away, fewer people are around now to sound the alarm. Her position isn’t selfish, but caring.
      Last edited by lilpixieofterror; 05-22-2020, 12:38 PM.
      "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
      GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

      Comment


      • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
        Or...

        They are business owners watching their business crumble

        Or...

        They can’t afford to live at home, for months on end.

        Or...

        They see they have a low risk to themselves and decide its worth it to not end up losing their homes.

        Or...

        They see the rise in homelessness, child abuse, spouse abuse, suicide, and economic destruction and want things to change.

        Nah, that can’t be it. They must be all selfish and uncaring! Yep, that’s it and thus your disconnect from your opponents. You don’t understand them, but freely pass judgment upon them. Even when your assertions are ridiculous and ignore science themselves.



        We need to listen to the data and the data says person living in a nursing home, hospice care, or long term care is in the biggest danger. A large part of all deaths, in the US and the world, is from that group. That’s important and tells us what groups we should protect. We need to test staff members, watch them carefully for illness, only allow guest already proved negative allowed in, clean regularly, etc. That should cut our deaths down drastically. Shutting down business, filling skateparks with sand, and arresting barbers will likely do far less. ...
        While the issues you raise are real and are not trivial, without the sort of widespread testing and contact tracing the Trump Administration has been reluctant to put in place, the only real solution pre-vaccine is to severely limit the contact between people. Accepting that reality, rather than fighting it. is the solution. If we accept that reality rather than getting people riled up about wearing face-masks to the point they actual kill and otherwise injure store employees enforcing they wear masks, then we can actually take new and creative steps towards making it possible to keep most of those businesses running while at the same time decreasing significantly the chances the virus will spread during their operation.

        IF we can get people out of the "It's no worse than the flu"/"we are way overreacting" delusions, then we can - instead of all this fighting to return to a normal that can't exist again for 1 to 2 years - make the changes necessary to keep our nation and our world from crashing on account of it. Fighting what you can't change is destructive. We can't change the fact this virus is here, we can't change its nature, we can't change its capacity to spread or its real mortality or its long lasting side-effects. But what we can do - if we accept it is what it actually is - is we can then cooperatively and proactively engage as one people to find and implement SOLUTIONS to the problems you raise that take into account the REALITY of the virus and what it is.
        Last edited by oxmixmudd; 05-22-2020, 01:58 PM.
        My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

        If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

        This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

        Comment


        • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
          Sweety, I display contempt for you because you passive aggressive contempt for myself is as obvious as the nose on your face. Don’t like it, change your attitude, but see... I admit when I make a mistake.


          17 pages of you not admitting you made a mistake about post-WWII Germany and hyperinflation proves otherwise.
          Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

          MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
          MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

          seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...

          Comment


          • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
            Or...

            They are business owners watching their business crumble

            Or...

            They can’t afford to live at home, for months on end.

            Or...

            They see they have a low risk to themselves and decide its worth it to not end up losing their homes.

            Or...

            They see the rise in homelessness, child abuse, spouse abuse, suicide, and economic destruction and want things to change.

            Nah, that can’t be it. They must be all selfish and uncaring! Yep, that’s it and thus your disconnect from your opponents. You don’t understand them, but freely pass judgment upon them. Even when your assertions are ridiculous and ignore science themselves.
            Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post

            Those are all alternative ways people are experiencing "fatigue." There is no question that taking precautionary steps is difficult. The last claim, however, you would have to document. So far - you haven't done much of that. Repeated requests for you to provide your sources have largely been ignored
            We need to listen to the data and the data says person living in a nursing home, hospice care, or long term care is in the biggest danger. A large part of all deaths, in the US and the world, is from that group. That’s important and tells us what groups we should protect.
            Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post

            This is correct.
            We need to test staff members, watch them carefully for illness, only allow guest already proved negative allowed in, clean regularly, etc. That should cut our deaths down drastically.
            Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post

            This is correct.
            Shutting down business, filling skateparks with sand, and arresting barbers will likely do far less.
            Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post

            This is an unsupported claim. By definition - if there is less virus in the general community, the probability of spread to the at-risk groups will be less. And, BTW, not all of the at-risk groups are in the three locations you cite.
            Or...

            You don’t understand your opponents and prefer strawman that makes them look bad. One of my friends is totally against it, I don’t agree with her, but I understand her view. She suffered horrific abuse as a child, till someone figured it out and she and her siblings were sent to their grandparents. Her concern is abused children are suffering and with being locked away, fewer people are around now to sound the alarm. Her position isn’t selfish, but caring.
            Again - a single data point is not an argument when you are trying to make a statistical case. There is always a story available to support your position. The question is, does it represent a trend that needs to be addressed. You have not supported this position with verifiable data.

            Until you do - this will be my last response in this series.
            The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

            I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

            Comment


            • Originally posted by firstfloor View Post
              Trump tries his hand at extortion, against Michigan. Trump and the Repubs know that they only win elections these days if they suppress the vote or work a bit of Gerrymandering magic.
              He might lose the next election by 5 millions, but it won't matter if he wins the electoral votes, and so Michigan is a must for Trump. Going after Gretchen will be an ongoing spectacle.

              Comment


              • https://www.technologyreview.com/202...eopen-america/


                Informed Democracy & Social Cybersecurity have been tracking bots and influence campaigns for a long time. Across US and foreign elections, natural disasters, and other politicized events, the level of bot involvement is normally between 10 and 20%, she says.

                But in a new study, the researchers have found that bots may account for between 45 and 60% of Twitter accounts discussing covid-19. Many of those accounts were created in February and have since been spreading and amplifying misinformation, including false medical advice, conspiracy theories about the origin of the virus, and pushes to end stay-at-home orders and reopen America.


                There is a reason those of us urging caution on re-opening, and urging that we make any decisions based on data. That reason is because there is a huge push to make decisions based on things other than caution and data. I have no idea who is behind this but there is no reason to believe that they are a super genius who is secretly looking out for my best interest.

                It doesn't mean that those of you pushing to re-open ASAP are bad / wrong. It just means we know that a lot of the noise (on Twitter) pushing to re-open is not coming from genuine humans.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                  Again - a single data point is not an argument when you are trying to make a statistical case. There is always a story available to support your position. The question is, does it represent a trend that needs to be addressed. You have not supported this position with verifiable data.

                  Until you do - this will be my last response in this series.
                  Wow - I really messed up THAT post...
                  The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                  I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by DivineOb View Post
                    https://www.technologyreview.com/202...eopen-america/


                    Informed Democracy & Social Cybersecurity have been tracking bots and influence campaigns for a long time. Across US and foreign elections, natural disasters, and other politicized events, the level of bot involvement is normally between 10 and 20%, she says.

                    But in a new study, the researchers have found that bots may account for between 45 and 60% of Twitter accounts discussing covid-19. Many of those accounts were created in February and have since been spreading and amplifying misinformation, including false medical advice, conspiracy theories about the origin of the virus, and pushes to end stay-at-home orders and reopen America.


                    There is a reason those of us urging caution on re-opening, and urging that we make any decisions based on data. That reason is because there is a huge push to make decisions based on things other than caution and data. I have no idea who is behind this but there is no reason to believe that they are a super genius who is secretly looking out for my best interest.

                    It doesn't mean that those of you pushing to re-open ASAP are bad / wrong. It just means we know that a lot of the noise (on Twitter) pushing to re-open is not coming from genuine humans.
                    America has been hacked. And those who have been most hacked are in denial.
                    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by DivineOb View Post
                      But in a new study, the researchers have found that bots may account for between 45 and 60% of Twitter accounts discussing covid-19. Many of those accounts were created in February and have since been spreading and amplifying misinformation, including false medical advice, conspiracy theories about the origin of the virus, and pushes to end stay-at-home orders and reopen America.
                      Once America's enemies had to spend the blood of their soldiers to slaughter Americans.

                      Now, with Covid, they can kill Americans just by talking Republicans into going on murder-suicide sprees via 'reopening'.
                      "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                      "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                      "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                        Once America's enemies had to spend the blood of their soldiers to slaughter Americans.

                        Now, with Covid, they can kill Americans just by talking Republicans into going on murder-suicide sprees via 'reopening'.
                        Kevin_lol.gif God, you are stupid...
                        That's what
                        - She

                        Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
                        - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

                        I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
                        - Stephen R. Donaldson

                        Comment


                        • A $21 million field hospital in Brooklyn, New York, authorized by New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio’s administration at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic opened and closed without seeing any patients.

                          The Brooklyn Cruise Terminal in Red Hook was one of several makeshift hospital sites throughout the city intended to relieve the city’s overcrowded hospitals brimming with coronavirus patients, the New York Post reported.

                          De Blasio announced plans for the 750-bed $20.8 million field hospital in Red Hook on March 31, one day after the USNS Comfort hospital ship arrived in New York to aid in the fight against coronavirus.

                          WABC reported that the USNS Comfort treated 182 patients over three and a half weeks before it departed at the end of April.

                          The makeshift hospital in Brooklyn was slated to open in April, but it was not ready for use until May 4, and the site is now being disbanded after not being used, the City reported.

                          https://www.breitbart.com/health/202...irus-patients/
                          Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                          But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                          Than a fool in the eyes of God


                          From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                            A $21 million field hospital in Brooklyn, New York, authorized by New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio’s administration at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic opened and closed without seeing any patients.

                            The Brooklyn Cruise Terminal in Red Hook was one of several makeshift hospital sites throughout the city intended to relieve the city’s overcrowded hospitals brimming with coronavirus patients, the New York Post reported.

                            De Blasio announced plans for the 750-bed $20.8 million field hospital in Red Hook on March 31, one day after the USNS Comfort hospital ship arrived in New York to aid in the fight against coronavirus.

                            WABC reported that the USNS Comfort treated 182 patients over three and a half weeks before it departed at the end of April.

                            The makeshift hospital in Brooklyn was slated to open in April, but it was not ready for use until May 4, and the site is now being disbanded after not being used, the City reported.

                            https://www.breitbart.com/health/202...irus-patients/
                            And?

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by JimL View Post
                              And?
                              It adds to the "this is not a big deal" messaging. we're about to cross 100,000 dead, and it's still "this is not a big deal." It boggles the imagination.
                              The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                              I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                                A $21 million field hospital in Brooklyn, New York, authorized by New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio’s administration at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic opened and closed without seeing any patients.

                                The Brooklyn Cruise Terminal in Red Hook was one of several makeshift hospital sites throughout the city intended to relieve the city’s overcrowded hospitals brimming with coronavirus patients, the New York Post reported.

                                De Blasio announced plans for the 750-bed $20.8 million field hospital in Red Hook on March 31, one day after the USNS Comfort hospital ship arrived in New York to aid in the fight against coronavirus.

                                WABC reported that the USNS Comfort treated 182 patients over three and a half weeks before it departed at the end of April.

                                The makeshift hospital in Brooklyn was slated to open in April, but it was not ready for use until May 4, and the site is now being disbanded after not being used, the City reported.

                                https://www.breitbart.com/health/202...irus-patients/
                                Actually anticipated, but eventually not needed, because at the time the COVID 19 cases were beginning to decline as they have since.
                                Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                                Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                                But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                                go with the flow the river knows . . .

                                Frank

                                I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                                Comment

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