The Joe Biden thread

[DivineOb]

I'm not sure that even if Trump had responded properly to the pandemic we could have avoided the impact to the economy. It might not have been as severe, but eventually we would have had to go into a shelter in place - no country has been able to avoid that without significant consequences (sweden maybe, jury is still out on that)

That's true but thems the breaks. He was gifted the Obama recovery so it's not like he didn't get a fair shot.

[Mountain Man]

Here's the polling reported on 538.

Here's the reporting on RCP.

Kindly point me which aspect on there fills you with joy that Biden is the nominee and ought to fill me with dread.

You still trust polling data after the last few election cycles?

[JimL]

You still trust polling data after the last few election cycles?

Why, do you think it's even worse for Trump than the polls are showing? Lets get him out of there before Putin has him do any more damage.

[DivineOb]

You still trust polling data after the last few election cycles?

Trump does.

[Starlight]

I'm not sure that even if Trump had responded properly to the pandemic we could have avoided the impact to the economy. It might not have been as severe, but eventually we would have had to go into a shelter in place - no country has been able to avoid that without significant consequences (sweden maybe, jury is still out on that)

Here in New Zealand we are reopening the economy, having eliminated the virus from the country through a strict but shortish lockdown (5 weeks at the strictest level, another 5 or so of decreasing restrictions).

Unemployment went up about 1.5% over the lockdown (the government offered businesses a wage subsidy if they agreed to retain their workers and most did). I expect unemployment will go back down to pre-Covid levels (~5%) as the economy reopens fully (minus foreign tourism, which will obviously remain impacted as the borders remain shut... it remains to be seen how local tourism will compare as people here who would normal have holidayed in other countries may now holiday locally instead). The government has chosen to spend like drunken sailors in its annual budget released last week (a choice I agree with), and has chosen to run up reasonably significant debt (around 20 percentage points of GDP, taking us from around 30% to around 50% of GDP; compare to US at around 105% of GDP) in order to minimize impacts to the economy and restart economic activity with infrastructure spending etc.

The result is that public approval of the government's handling of Covid is polling at 90%, and the current Prime Minister is polling as the most popular NZ leader in the last century. She'll be able to bank that at the next election in a few months time.

So a different path to the one the US went down is definitely possible. You could have had almost no loss of life (4 deaths per million population was the figure here; compare to 291 deaths per million population thus far in the US) and very little damage to your economy aside from a bit of debt on the government books. However, I don't know what to suggest you guys do given where you are. I don't know if you any longer have a choice between saving lives and saving the economy... both seem lost to you. Among the different countries you seem to have had among the largest losses of life and among the largest hits to your economy. It seems like failed leadership is pretty clearly to blame.

[EvoUK]

.So a different path to the one the US went down is definitely possible. You could have had almost no loss of life (4 deaths per million population was the figure here; compare to 291 deaths per million population thus far in the US) and very little damage to your economy aside from a bit of debt on the government books. However, I don't know what to suggest you guys do given where you are. I don't know if you any longer have a choice between saving lives and saving the economy... both seem lost to you. Among the different countries you seem to have had among the largest losses of life and among the largest hits to your economy. It seems like failed leadership is pretty clearly to blame.

The UK is in a similar position, also because of spectacularly bad leadership. We're in the position now, having locked down too late and too lax, of having done huge damage to the economy as well as (I believe) the highest death toll in Europe.

Despite claims of 'following the science' it turns out (to the surprise of no one paying attention over the last 10 years) that most of the decisions taken (lack of testing, no PPE etc), weren't due to what the science told us at all, but purely political decisions due to lack of preparedness and running down the infrastructure originally in place.

[EvoUK]

But let's get back to the original topic of right wingers doing that false equivalence thing where they pretend Biden is anywhere near as bad as Trump- the poster boy for negative personality traits.

[Cow Poke]

But let's get back to the original topic of right wingers doing that false equivalence thing where they pretend Biden is anywhere near as bad as Trump- the poster boy for negative personality traits.

"Bad" in what regard? Nuttier than a fruitcake? Or morally bankrupt?

[rogue06]

Here's the polling reported on 538.

Here's the reporting on RCP.

Kindly point me which aspect on there fills you with joy that Biden is the nominee and ought to fill me with dread.

Those numbers can only be expected to hold if Biden runs his entire campaign from his basement and continues to let surrogates do his talking for him.

[rogue06]

Of course. That doesn't change the fact that Biden is the Democrat best positioned to win and the one Trump / Russia fear the most.

Biden only bullies Ukraine not Russia.

[Cow Poke]

Of course. That doesn't change the fact that Biden is the Democrat best positioned to win and the one Trump / Russia fear the most.

Think about that.... if Biden is the BEST the Democrats have..... Lord, help us all!

[DivineOb]

Think about that.... if Biden is the BEST the Democrats have..... Lord, help us all!

And the Republicans are going with Trump, a president with unprecedented unpopularity, overseeing a second great depression, and closing in on 100k COVID45 deaths (probably ~200k by the election).

We good.

[Cow Poke]

And the Republicans are going with Trump, a president with unprecedented unpopularity, overseeing a second great depression, and closing in on 100k COVID45 deaths (probably ~200k by the election).

We good.

It is, once again, a choice of the evil of two lessers.

Look, we know who Trump is, and an election is coming .... the fact that the Democrats can't do any better than Uncle Joe BIDEN is..... staggering.

[seanD]

And the Republicans are going with Trump, a president with unprecedented unpopularity, overseeing a second great depression, and closing in on 100k COVID45 deaths (probably ~200k by the election).

We good.

Trump is unpopular with the left. That won't get Biden elected. You want folks to be enthusiastic enough about a democrat running against Trump so that they DO vote. Otherwise, hating Trump, but not being confident or enthusiastic about his opponent means they just won't vote. That's obviously not going to prevent Trump from being reelected. This is just ONE reason why polls are unreliable, because even though a person polled might say they support a certain candidate over another doesn't mean they'll actually vote.

[DivineOb]

It is, once again, a choice of the evil of two lessers.

Look, we know who Trump is, and an election is coming .... the fact that the Democrats can't do any better than Uncle Joe BIDEN is..... staggering.

I just don't understand where you're coming from on this

Are you dismissing Biden because you discount his track record? Because you think he is slipping mentally? Because you dislike how he treats women? Because you don't think we need an empathetic leader right now? Because he just gives you the Willies?

What makes you think he is a *bad* choice?