Originally posted by DivineOb
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Trump fires 4th Inspector General.
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That's what
- She
Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
- Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)
I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
- Stephen R. Donaldson
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Originally posted by Bill the Cat View PostTake a look at #2 and then re-read Jim's list o' countries with supposedly "great response".
Your point would be more precisely to say - raw death count is not as good a measure of success as deaths per million, and then we could discuss when and if that is true or false.
But my post was correct bill. The USA has the most cases, and the most deaths of any nation in the world. And that is the metric I used as an example of Trump bungling the covid-19 response. There are plenty of other metrics that show the same thing, including yours. the us should not be 8th in deaths per million BTC, not if the pandemic had been handled properly. We are worse than S.Korea, Germany, Canada, Russia (though may not for long) etc etc. We lead the world in deaths, and likely will for a while. Though there are a number of countries where it is out of control (Brazil, Mexico, Russia etc) and they may one day pass us. But my point stands - Trump completely bungled our response, and continues to bungle it, and likely will never get it right, because he is focused on short term appearances and what inflates his ego, not what experts in the field are telling him.Last edited by oxmixmudd; 05-21-2020, 09:54 AM.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostThere is way to much hatred and irrational ranting in this post for me to even bother. You likely wouldn't comprehend the response anyway.
I would also remind you that accusations of lying require substantiation, keeping in mind for something I say to be 'a lie' I must know it to be untrue. I assure you none of my post contains comments stated as true that I know to be untrue.
So - do you feel better now that you've gotten all that off your chest?
ETA:
I will concede that if the metric used is deaths per million, UK is doing worse than the US. Of course, the metric I was using was NOT deaths per million, but the total number of cases and the total number of deaths. But even using your metric, S.Korea and Germany still beat us, as does China, and Russia, and Denmark, and Canada and ... shall I go on?
Capture1.GIF
How does mortality differ across countries?
One of the most important ways to measure the burden of COVID-19 is mortality. Countries throughout the world have reported very different case fatality ratios – the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases. Differences in mortality numbers can be caused by:
Differences in the number of people tested: With more testing, more people with milder cases are identified. This lowers the case-fatality ratio.
Demographics: For example, mortality tends to be higher in older populations.
Characteristics of the healthcare system: For example, mortality may rise as hospitals become overwhelmed and have fewer resources.
Other factors, many of which remain unknown.That's what
- She
Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
- Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)
I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
- Stephen R. Donaldson
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Originally posted by Bill the Cat View PostHatred? From the man who can't keep Trump out of basically ANY thread?
True. You're think your opinions are factual, and your opinions are typically crap. Lying implies you know the truth.
What? Explaining that your opinions are not facts? Sure, whatever.
Please do. It shows you still don't know what I am even talking about. But here's another one:
[ATTACH=CONFIG]44866[/ATTACH]
How does mortality differ across countries?
One of the most important ways to measure the burden of COVID-19 is mortality. Countries throughout the world have reported very different case fatality ratios – the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases. Differences in mortality numbers can be caused by:
Differences in the number of people tested: With more testing, more people with milder cases are identified. This lowers the case-fatality ratio.
Demographics: For example, mortality tends to be higher in older populations.
Characteristics of the healthcare system: For example, mortality may rise as hospitals become overwhelmed and have fewer resources.
Other factors, many of which remain unknown.
The US naive mortality (#deaths/#cases)*100 is 5.95%. That is worse than Germany(4.6%), and worse than S. Korea (2.34%). I don't think anything has yet changed Bill.
But if you wish to discuss which metric is the best metric of success in the covid-19 response, until good treatments or a vaccine has been produced, mortality is not as good a measure as spread of the disease, because different demographics will have different mortalities due to the change in mortality with age and health, and as you point out, mortality is also influenced by total per capita testing due to asymptomatic or mild cases that go unreported. The best measure of success then is containment. Are we keeping the disease from spreading. That is where Trump has completely failed. And that is where - for now at least - S.Korea is light years ahead of us. And if we look at nations with a large number of cases (>50,000), only Spain and Belgium (barely) exceeds us in cases per million.
If you wish to switch from mortality to deaths per million, then your case is a bit stronger, because deaths per million is an indirect measure of spread, but again demographics like age and quality of medical care come into play. There is also the fact that countries getting the disease later in the process benefit from lessons learned early in the process. If we look at deaths per million, again, of the 3 countries I mentioned in my original post, only the UK exceeds us. Germany and S. Korea are better. Other nations - nations that also delayed or bungled their responses similarly to Trump - spain, italy, france, UK, are worse than the US.
But pick your metric, Our response has been bad from day 1. Which nations are worse depend on the metric picked, but of the 3 I mentioned, Germany and S.Korea are better no matter which one you pick. And out response continues to be bad. We are still disorganized and fractured, and we have no real leadership above the state level.Last edited by oxmixmudd; 05-21-2020, 10:29 AM.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Postyou are one confused puppy. Do you even know what point you are trying to make?
Do you suppose I'm not aware of the facts you list above? Do you suppose that if you just randomly talk about different numbers and different measurements it will change the truth of my original comments?
The US naive mortality (#deaths/#cases)*100 is 5.95%. That is worse than Germany(4.6%), and worse than S. Korea (2.34%). I don't think anything has yet changed Bill.
But if you wish to discuss which metric is the best metric of success in the covid-19 response, until good treatments or a vaccine has been produced, mortality is not as good a measure as spread of the disease, because different demographics will have different mortalities due to the change in mortality with age and health.
The best measure of success is containment.
Are we keeping the disease from spreading. That is where Trump has completely failed. And that is where - for now at least - S.Korea is light years ahead of us. And if we look at nations with a large number of cases (>50,000), only Spain and Belgium (barely) exceeds us in cases per million.
Our response has been bad from day 1.
And it continues to be bad.
We are disorganized and fractured,
we have no real leadership above the state level.That's what
- She
Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
- Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)
I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
- Stephen R. Donaldson
Comment
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Originally posted by Bill the Cat View PostOf course I do. The US had PREDICTED 2 Million deaths. We are barely at 5% of that prediction. That is a HUGE win. Leftist prats like you refuse to acknowledge that.
Although I've heard some news outlets say or imply otherwise the models did factor in quarantines and social distancing
I'm always still in trouble again
"You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
"Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
"Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman
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Originally posted by Bill the Cat View PostOf course I do. The US had PREDICTED 2 Million deaths. We are barely at 5% of that prediction. That is a HUGE win. Leftist prats like you refuse to acknowledge that.
...
But it is still significant that we are comparably close to several Western countries that had different approaches to the virus.
Then you are at odds with the good folks at Johns Hopkins, who said "One of the most important ways to measure the burden of COVID-19 is mortality."
And our recovery rate is nearly identical to other countries as well. People are going to get it until a vaccine is developed. The question is not how many, but when.
Because we have 50 governors doing 50 things ...Last edited by oxmixmudd; 05-21-2020, 11:35 AM.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by rogue06 View PostIIRC, the initial estimate was between something like 1.2 and 2 million deaths.
Although I've heard some news outlets say or imply otherwise the models did factor in quarantines and social distancing
The issue is that Trump and the admin did not respond quickly or in a timely fashion. They tried to play it down, they refused to get production of PPE ramped up etc until after things started to fall apart. They had warning after warning and they did not act. That is failure. Whatever the numbers were predicted to be vs what they are is irrelevant. Saying you were successful because the worst case didn't happen is nothing more than spin. And lame spin at that.
The simple fact is the current numbers could have been MUCH better than they are if they'd have stopped being idiots and acted on the information and knowledge they had at the time. That is the bottom line. And that is why the Trump administration response has been and continues to be a disaster.
The are STILL ignoring the science. They are STILL ignoring realities over spin. They are STILL exhibiting and encouraging behaviors that will make the pandemic worse, not better.
*For example, your numbers might have been with mitigations if they were using higher mortality and assuming symptoms == sick. Early assumed spread and mortality factors that did not reflect the true character of the disease in the early predictions is NOT something the Trump administration can claim credit for in their self awarded 'success' rating.Last edited by oxmixmudd; 05-21-2020, 11:43 AM.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by DivineOb View PostYou seem to really want to discuss this. Point me to the data you want me to see and I'll take a look."The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Postrogue - unless you specify exactly what the parameters of the prediction were you are talking out your dairy air*. Predictions are based on assumptions Mortality, rate of spread. Early predictions were used to show what would happen with and without interventions, and most of the early projections were based on current conditions, that is why they changed over time. And there are different levels of quarantine and social distancing. Percentages staying home vs percentages out and about. That is quite different when in lock down vs not in lock down.
The issue is that Trump and the admin did not respond quickly or in a timely fashion. They tried to play it down, they refused to get production of PPE ramped up etc until after things started to fall apart. They had warning after warning and they did not act. That is failure. Whatever the numbers were predicted to be vs what they are is irrelevant. Saying you were successful because the worst case didn't happen is nothing more than spin. And lame spin at that.
The simple fact is the current numbers could have been MUCH better than they are if they'd have stopped being idiots and acted on the information and knowledge they had at the time. That is the bottom line. And that is why the Trump administration response has been and continues to be a disaster.
The are STILL ignoring the science. They are STILL ignoring realities over spin. They are STILL exhibiting and encouraging behaviors that will make the pandemic worse, not better.
*For example, your numbers might have been with mitigations if they were using higher mortality and assuming symptoms == sick. Early assumed spread and mortality factors that did not reflect the true character of the disease in the early predictions is NOT something the Trump administration can claim credit for in their self awarded 'success' rating."The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostThat's just ridiculous. 2 milion deaths is what happens if we do nothing and just let it run amok.
That is NOT the prediction with intervention.
We are at 96000 and likely will see above 150,000
when if the administration had been on the ball and done what they needed to do, we could be at a fraction of that.
And that is why it's a failure. 10's of thousands dead that did not need to die is NOT success.
Not really. Not when we had more time to prepare but bungled it along so that we did worse than them instead of better.
"Burden of COVID-19" vs "Measure of Success". I am not 'at odds' with JHU, I'm simply talking about something else.
They are talking about it's impact on the medical system and society, I am talking about how to know we are beating the disease.
They are intertwined to be sure, but to measure our success in stopping the disease, we need to see it stop spreading. If we want to know what the impact is on our medical system, we need to know the mortality against the current number of cases.
Because we have a federal government that dropped the ball.
They wouldn't be doing 50 different things if instead of creating chaos, ignoring science and the experts, and trying to get revenge against Democratic Governors, the president was actually driving the various entities to work together to find the best solution possible based on the best possible data.That's what
- She
Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
- Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)
I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
- Stephen R. Donaldson
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Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View PostYou’re the one that claims to be superior, you tell me. It’s really easy to google. Tell us what it is.
Here is the link I found. It shows we are 9th in testing per million despite being 1st in number of cases and deaths. What is the point you are trying to make?
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FYI, try this:
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...n=homeAdUOA?SiLast edited by lilpixieofterror; 05-21-2020, 12:19 PM."The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy
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Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View PostI knew it was there and have even shared that link several times dear. I see you still need help, what’s the rest of the world’s testing rates?
How does this data make your point?
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