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Trump Cancels Denmark Visit

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  • #76
    Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
    Under that logic, who hasn't?
    Meh, I think people can be excused for blowing up every once in awhile if they normally keep an even keel. But I'm thinking more of workplace politics and my days of doing three people's work and then expressing mild frustration very rarely. I'm not very invested in this particular issue.
    "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

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    • #77
      Originally posted by One Bad Pig View Post
      Are you done modifying your post yet?

      I agree, a 12 year old might have difficulty distinguishing between the aptness of your and MM's characterizations of each other.
      12 year olds think they've accomplished something when they play sneaky games insulting people. Just like you.

      Jim
      My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

      If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

      This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

      Comment


      • #78
        Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
        12 year olds think they've accomplished something when they play sneaky games insulting people. Just like you.

        Jim
        I'm under no illusion that I'm accomplishing anything here. I really should put you on quick-scroll.
        Enter the Church and wash away your sins. For here there is a hospital and not a court of law. Do not be ashamed to enter the Church; be ashamed when you sin, but not when you repent. – St. John Chrysostom

        Veritas vos Liberabit<>< Learn Greek <>< Look here for an Orthodox Church in America<><Ancient Faith Radio
        sigpic
        I recommend you do not try too hard and ...research as little as possible. Such weighty things give me a headache. - Shunyadragon, Baha'i apologist

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        • #79
          Originally posted by One Bad Pig View Post
          I'm under no illusion that I'm accomplishing anything here. I really should put you on quick-scroll.
          *emphasis mine

          We have that?
          "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

          "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

          My Personal Blog

          My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

          Quill Sword

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          • #80
            Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
            *emphasis mine

            We have that?
            No. We have "ignore" - which I'm not supposed to do as a staff member. All I can do is try to not read his posts - hence, 'quick-scroll'.
            Enter the Church and wash away your sins. For here there is a hospital and not a court of law. Do not be ashamed to enter the Church; be ashamed when you sin, but not when you repent. – St. John Chrysostom

            Veritas vos Liberabit<>< Learn Greek <>< Look here for an Orthodox Church in America<><Ancient Faith Radio
            sigpic
            I recommend you do not try too hard and ...research as little as possible. Such weighty things give me a headache. - Shunyadragon, Baha'i apologist

            Comment


            • #81
              Originally posted by One Bad Pig View Post
              No. We have "ignore" - which I'm not supposed to do as a staff member. All I can do is try to not read his posts - hence, 'quick-scroll'.
              Ah, okay...

              Drat - I was hoping there was a way to get past where others have quoted him more quickly. I mean, I try, but...
              "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

              "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

              My Personal Blog

              My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

              Quill Sword

              Comment


              • #82
                Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                Then you evidently didn't read the rest of the post you just made!




                Oh lookie - a squirrel. Relevant data is what matters - 'all available' is just weeds.

                Evidently the news isn't 'relevant data'.



                Then you aren't paying very close attention to just how radical part of your party has become - and how much your candidates are pandering to them.


                I know you have a computer so it's your own fault if you're not paying attention.


                Oh cute - but you aren't that stupid so no.



                It's TOO EARLY - polling data at this point are nothing but weeds.

                Trends are useful - but you actually can't use cross sections to predict the future. This is bad analysis - yeah, everyone does it but it's still bad.

                There is some useful data - but you're looking at the wrong stuff. Don't care if his approval rating is low - it's a bad metric and hasn't stopped Congress in forty years - and probably not any president since Carter and I wouldn't swear to Carter (Reagan was a much better candidate just as Clinton was up against Bush Sr)

                No, they aren't - which is very bad news for the Democrats. Get nose out of the racing sheets and look at how badly the horse is limping.


                Translation: Dang she's right - gotta dodge!



                Good grief - you really DON'T watch news AT ALL, do you? Clinton herself referenced it - trying to defend herself by calling a Harvard professor's peer reviewed paper 'debunked' despite the fact that it hasn't been - and he's a Clinton supporter.



                304 to 227 is a solid win - and it would have been 306 had Texas cast all its votes. And you knew perfectly good and well what I meant. Really are worried, huh?



                Polls are too early to matter.



                yep - because the media is setting it up that way in an attempt to cause a recession - or get clicks, one.

                Yup - I'm not dumb enough to say Trump will likely win where you keep arguing that he will likely lose. I'm just saying he would win if we held the election today. If the Democrats run a crappy candidate, all the polls in the world won't help them win. And all they have in their bloated field are lack luster candidates - exactly what they cannot afford. Democrats historically don't turn out unless motivated - four years of 'orange man bad' isn't going to provide the necessary momentum to get Millineal backsides off the couch.
                Just letting you know I read your post. I do hope all Republicans continue to think as you do, especially Trump and Congressional leaders. Meanwhile, I like the current trend lines and find them encouraging. As for what finally happens, I'll keep moving forward on positioning myself to sell the house and leave the U.S. late next year if Trump wins, but I'm increasingly encourage won't have to do that. Beyond that, further response doesn't seem worth the time.

                Nice chat.

                ETA: BTW, the difference between Congresses poll numbers and presidential polling numbers is one person versus 535 people. Congress is a group that can collectively have poor approval while individual members are still strongly supported by their local constituents. The president doesn't have that dichotomy, so poor polling is a significantly greater risk. I would have thought you would have known that.
                The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                Comment


                • #83
                  This is the kind of data I'm finding that gives me a degree of optimism about 2020. The article cites a study that shows that Trump's approval rate among voters who originally voted for Obama but voted for Trump in 2016 is 76%. But read down in the article and look at the poll and you find that 19% of these voters have soured on Trump. Since there were between 7 and 9 million of these voters, that translates to between 1.33 and 1.71 million former Obama voters who voted for Trump in 2016 and have now soured on him. Trump won by less than 100K votes in three states (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan) - so the real question is, where are these voters located? If they are evenly distributed by population, 1.78% are in Wisconsin (23.7 - 30.4K voters), 3.06% are in Michigan (40.7 - 52.3K voters), and 3.91% are in Pennsylvania (52.0 - 66.9K voters), for a total of 116.4 to 149.6 voters. This alone would be more than enough to reverse all three states, which were the three states that put Trump over the top in 2016. We don't actually know where these voters are located, so the number could be lower or higher. Ergo, nothing about this is certain - just encouraging.

                  And that's just ONE data point. Other data points include the people who sat out 2016 because they could not bring themselves to vote for either. How many of them will come off the bench to vote against Trump now that Clinton is out of the picture? What will the economy do in the next 15 months (note Trump just doubled down on tariffs)? How much more will Trump alienate with his twitter feed and public comments (note Trump's boast about "chosen one" and "love me more than God" and "love me like the King of Israel")? Then there is intra-state polling, where we see NC leans Dem for the top 3 candidates, Texas is in play for the top two Dem candidates, Ohio is in play for the top Dem candidate, and Florida leans Dem for the top six candidates. Florida is especially interesting given the exodus of a significant block from blue states to Florida due to the impact of Trump's tax cuts on those states, bolstering blue voters in Florida. Also interesting is the progress towards ex-con voting in Florida, though the Reps are doing everything they can to block this from taking effect.

                  When you look at all of the rest of the data points, including these...I am greatly encouraged. Slam dunk? Absolutely not. Many things could happen in the next 15 months - which is why I will continue to position myself to sell/move. But I'm not doing anything that cannot be reversed - because I have a good feeling about how things are unfolding. Indeed, if the Dems can get O'Rourke and Bullock to abandon their presidential bid and shift to a Senate bid, I think there is a good chance of the Dems taking both chambers of Congress as well as the executive. Normally, I am not a fan of one party having so broad a level of control, but I think we'll need at least one two-year cycle to undo much of the harm Trump has done nationally and internationally, and to give us a chance to replace the older liberal SCOTUS justices and prevent the court for swinging even further right. In an ideal world, SCOTUS would be three liberal justices, three moderates, and three conservative justices, but I don't think that ideal world will ever manifest.

                  So I'm hoping for single party (Dem) control in 2020 and hoping the Reps take back the house in 2022.
                  Last edited by carpedm9587; 08-24-2019, 09:55 AM.
                  The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                  I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                    Just letting you know I read your post. I do hope all Republicans continue to think as you do, especially Trump and Congressional leaders. Meanwhile, I like the current trend lines and find them encouraging. As for what finally happens, I'll keep moving forward on positioning myself to sell the house and leave the U.S. late next year if Trump wins, but I'm increasingly encourage won't have to do that. Beyond that, further response doesn't seem worth the time.

                    Nice chat.

                    ETA: BTW, the difference between Congresses poll numbers and presidential polling numbers is one person versus 535 people. Congress is a group that can collectively have poor approval while individual members are still strongly supported by their local constituents. The president doesn't have that dichotomy, so poor polling is a significantly greater risk. I would have thought you would have known that.
                    Approval numbers are obtained by polling but are used in isolation. And they haven't mattered since Carter, if then, for presidential reelection races. Congressional numbers are so low that it defies credulity to believe they matter when there is consistently no apparent effect. Approval ratings are just media fodder - nothing more.

                    And it's too early anyway.

                    You might wanna consider selling now in case the media does manage to talk up an actual recession. There some great places in Mexico - but avoid Canada, it snows up there!
                    "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                    "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                    My Personal Blog

                    My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                    Quill Sword

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                      This is the kind of data I'm finding that gives me a degree of optimism about 2020. The article cites a study that shows that Trump's approval rate among voters who originally voted for Obama but voted for Trump in 2016 is 76%. But read down in the article and look at the poll and you find that 19% of these voters have soured on Trump. Since there were between 7 and 9 million of these voters, that translates to between 1.33 and 1.71 million former Obama voters who voted for Trump in 2016 and have now soured on him. Trump won by less than 100K votes in three states (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan) - so the real question is, where are these voters located? If they are evenly distributed by population, 1.78% are in Wisconsin (23.7 - 30.4K voters), 3.06% are in Michigan (40.7 - 52.3K voters), and 3.91% are in Pennsylvania (52.0 - 66.9K voters), for a total of 116.4 to 149.6 voters. This alone would be more than enough to reverse all three states, which were the three states that put Trump over the top in 2016. We don't actually know where these voters are located, so the number could be lower or higher. Ergo, nothing about this is certain - just encouraging.

                      And that's just ONE data point. Other data points include the people who sat out 2016 because they could not bring themselves to vote for either. How many of them will come off the bench to vote against Trump now that Clinton is out of the picture? What will the economy do in the next 15 months (note Trump just doubled down on tariffs)? How much more will Trump alienate with his twitter feed and public comments (note Trump's boast about "chosen one" and "love me more than God" and "love me like the King of Israel")? Then there is intra-state polling, where we see NC leans Dem for the top 3 candidates, Texas is in play for the top two Dem candidates, Ohio is in play for the top Dem candidate, and Florida leans Dem for the top six candidates. Florida is especially interesting given the exodus of a significant block from blue states to Florida due to the impact of Trump's tax cuts on those states, bolstering blue voters in Florida. Also interesting is the progress towards ex-con voting in Florida, though the Reps are doing everything they can to block this from taking effect.

                      When you look at all of the rest of the data points, including these...I am greatly encouraged. Slam dunk? Absolutely not. Many things could happen in the next 15 months - which is why I will continue to position myself to sell/move. But I'm not doing anything that cannot be reversed - because I have a good feeling about how things are unfolding. Indeed, if the Dems can get O'Rourke and Bullock to abandon their presidential bid and shift to a Senate bid, I think there is a good chance of the Dems taking both chambers of Congress as well as the executive. Normally, I am not a fan of one party having so broad a level of control, but I think we'll need at least one two-year cycle to undo much of the harm Trump has done nationally and internationally, and to give us a chance to replace the older liberal SCOTUS justices and prevent the court for swinging even further right. In an ideal world, SCOTUS would be three liberal justices, three moderates, and three conservative justices, but I don't think that ideal world will ever manifest.

                      So I'm hoping for single party (Dem) control in 2020 and hoping the Reps take back the house in 2022.
                      Way too early - and much too optimistic - but, hey, if it makes you feel better.

                      These guys are among the best analysts - and you'll like this week's article.
                      "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                      "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                      My Personal Blog

                      My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                      Quill Sword

                      Comment


                      • #86
                        Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                        Approval numbers are obtained by polling but are used in isolation. And they haven't mattered since Carter, if then, for presidential reelection races. Congressional numbers are so low that it defies credulity to believe they matter when there is consistently no apparent effect. Approval ratings are just media fodder - nothing more.

                        And it's too early anyway.

                        You might wanna consider selling now in case the media does manage to talk up an actual recession. There some great places in Mexico - but avoid Canada, it snows up there!
                        I love snow...
                        The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                        I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                          Way too early - and much too optimistic - but, hey, if it makes you feel better.

                          These guys are among the best analysts - and you'll like this week's article.
                          I find some of his use of statistics a little questionable - but overall a fairly good piece. I was amused to find this at the end of his conclusion: "These findings suggest that the task of uniting Democrats behind the party’s eventual nominee may not be as difficult as some pundits and political observers have suggested."

                          Pretty much what I've been saying, though for different reasons.
                          The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                          I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                            I love snow...
                            "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                            "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                            My Personal Blog

                            My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                            Quill Sword

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                              I find some of his use of statistics a little questionable - but overall a fairly good piece. I was amused to find this at the end of his conclusion: "These findings suggest that the task of uniting Democrats behind the party’s eventual nominee may not be as difficult as some pundits and political observers have suggested."

                              Pretty much what I've been saying, though for different reasons.
                              Actually, that struck me as Captain Obvious - the problem won't be with the nominee. If the Democrat party breaks up, it will be because Trump wins 2020. They ARE divided but none of that division is rallying to a candidate - so they'll probably just fall in with whatever they get.

                              What they probably won't be is excited about the candidate - and that is not good news for a party that relies on high turnout.

                              Still too early - everything is just semi-informed guesses at this point.
                              "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                              "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                              My Personal Blog

                              My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                              Quill Sword

                              Comment


                              • #90
                                Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                                Denmark isn't a powerful ally - it just isn't.
                                Maybe, maybe not. But you've got long-standing military bases on our territories as well as an enormous missile defense radar system. If you broke with NATO and ceased to be an ally of Denmark, you would have to pack up those bases and leave.

                                It is that cooporation that is the basis for Denmark being an ally of the US. Not anything else.

                                he is President of the United States and he didn't do anything wrong in simply asking.
                                It's been discussed back and forth in the media. Should we bend over backward, understanding that Trump is a troll and be passively deflective? Perhaps, but he touched on a highly sensitive matter with all the tact of a clown on rollerblades. There's not much defending him Teal, you can certainly try to paint it like that. That it was an 'honest' mistake. If he had asked any advisor at all they would have told him it was a bad idea. Like they did when he asked the generals whether he could give himself the medal of honour.

                                Greenland is one of Denmark's colonies. We have a long history of mistreating them culturally, and we're making preparations for that. Giving them healthcare, while slowly making them autonomous and eventually sovereign.

                                If Trump wanted to buy Greenland, he should have asked Greenland. He didn't, he asked us, which puts on a really bad spot in relationship to Greenland. So our current prime minister told him off, mildly jeopardizing our relationship with the US while showing Greenland that understand.

                                Originally I thought it was just weird off-the-record idea from Trump. It was when he canceled his visit that I realized he was serious.

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