Ways to end the Covid pandemic

[MaxVel]

What are the ways out of this pandemic? What's the eventual end-game?

This thread is to discuss the possible ways, how likely they are, and what needs to happen for them to come about, and the timeframe they might happen in.


I can think of only four:

'Herd immunity'

Herd immunity, or community immunity, is when a large part of the population of an area is immune to a specific disease. If enough people are resistant to the cause of a disease, such as a virus or bacteria, it has nowhere to go.

While not every single individual may be immune, the group as a whole has protection. This is because there are fewer high-risk people overall. The infection rates drop, and the disease peters out.

Diagnose and cure

We develop ways to make early identification of infected people, along with an effective way to treat them so that they get better, and don't infect others. Presumably this would involve advances in testing, and also in antibody tests, plus some form of anti-viral drug(s). If we could get this going across the world... ...problem solved.



Vaccination

We develop an effective vaccine, and vaccinate most of the world's population. Problem solved. Potential stumbling blocks: We haven't had much success in making effective and safe vaccines for coronaviruses.



Virus peters out

the virus 'dies off' on it's own. Apparently this can be a thing, and no-one quite knows why or how it happens. Is this maybe related to herd immunity?


Right now, I think we're most likely headed for herd immunity - the virus will eventually spread everywhere, and kill those who are most susceptible, eventually becoming a background illness.


This thread is for posters to add any other ways we could see the pandemic end, more information / corrections about what I've posted, thoughts on the likelihood of each scenario etc. It is NOT for politicking or name-calling.

[JimL]

What are the ways out of this pandemic? What's the eventual end-game?

This thread is to discuss the possible ways, how likely they are, and what needs to happen for them to come about, and the timeframe they might happen in.


I can think of only four:

'Herd immunity'





Diagnose and cure

We develop ways to make early identification of infected people, along with an effective way to treat them so that they get better, and don't infect others. Presumably this would involve advances in testing, and also in antibody tests, plus some form of anti-viral drug(s). If we could get this going across the world... ...problem solved.



Vaccination

We develop an effective vaccine, and vaccinate most of the world's population. Problem solved. Potential stumbling blocks: We haven't had much success in making effective and safe vaccines for coronaviruses.



Virus peters out

the virus 'dies off' on it's own. Apparently this can be a thing, and no-one quite knows why or how it happens. Is this maybe related to herd immunity?


Right now, I think we're most likely headed for herd immunity - the virus will eventually spread everywhere, and kill those who are most susceptible, eventually becoming a background illness.


This thread is for posters to add any other ways we could see the pandemic end, more information / corrections about what I've posted, thoughts on the likelihood of each scenario etc. It is NOT for politicking or name-calling.

Herd immunity means some 80% or more of the community is immune, but to get there vaccination is necessary unless you're willing to overwhelm hospitals again in the meantime and allow many many more people to get sick and many more die. I think that coming up with a vaccine, as well as a treatment is what is needed but until that happens I think it'd be wise, at least as individuals, to continue with the mitigating .guidelines.

The problem is how do we get there while keeping the economy afloat.

[shunyadragon]

The COVID 19 will most likely will follow the natural course as all zoonotic viruses in the past a natural bell curve pattern. This is the pattern of infection we see all over the world. There is no vaccine to reduce the cases and fatalities. The only thing we can do now is follow the guidelines of social distance, disinfection, testing and yes masks.

The evidence is abundantly clear the gatherings, parties, meetings, and crowds particularly in doors is the primary cause of spreading the virus infection.

[Littlejoe]

I wonder if many/most of the problems/deaths from covid aren't the result of an out of control cytokine storm response by the body. ISTM that if we can find a way to control that, we may greatly reduce the deaths. Also something I read but is currently unconfirmed is...similar to a live vaccine, a very weak exposure to the virus (such as touching a contaminated object many hours later) may be resulting in many of the ones who have it but aren't symptomatic. ISTM that would be a good starting point for a vaccine...

[shunyadragon]

There is a basic misunderstanding of 'herd immunity' it does not stop nor significantly reduce the pandemic, because it only offers a degree of protection to those infected. It helps to protect later infections of the virus to a degree, and viruses mutate and diversify to get around 'herd immunity,' just as what happens in flus and colds. It is very likely that generations of herd immunity and coevolution with coronaviruses in the Orient reduced the per capita impact of COVID 19. There is evidence that 'herd immunity' and coevolution can develop in populations over generations.

[Mountain Man]

What are the ways out of this pandemic? What's the eventual end-game?

That's a very good question. A lot of governments seem to be operating with the premise that "Nothing is too extreme if it could potentially save even a single life," which is obviously absurd, but now that they have been able to enforce their totalitarian dreams on a suddenly compliant population, they're reluctant to simply relinquish their newly acquired power.

I mean, if extreme measures like forcing people to isolate, wear masks, and stand six-feet apart can tame something as supposedly virulent as the China flu, then imagine what could be done for less contagious illnesses like the common flu, which kills tens of thousands of people a year? Think of how many lives could be potentially saved from any number of diseases if this "quarantine" were extended indefinitely.

[Sparko]

People who are still for the lockdown, keep trying to use the vulnerable as an excuse to keep the healthy locked up. "But you will infect grandma!"

Well, as one of the vulnerable, because of a compromised immune system, diabetes and heart conditions, along with being near 60, I say, "Go for it!" I want the healthy low risk people to go back to work. If they get infected they will survive. They will eventually give us the herd immunity. In the meantime us vulnerable can stay home and avoid the risk. I am sure anyone who would be around anyone vulnerable (say granny lives with them) would be smart enough to stay home also. But why keep everyone locked up?

The faster we get herd immunity from the low risk crowd, the faster we vulnerable people can return to the world.

But it should be up to those who WANT to take the risk. Don't use people like me as an excuse to lock them up.

[JimL]

People who are still for the lockdown, keep trying to use the vulnerable as an excuse to keep the healthy locked up. "But you will infect grandma!"

Well, as one of the vulnerable, because of a compromised immune system, diabetes and heart conditions, along with being near 60, I say, "Go for it!" I want the healthy low risk people to go back to work. If they get infected they will survive. They will eventually give us the herd immunity. In the meantime us vulnerable can stay home and avoid the risk. I am sure anyone who would be around anyone vulnerable (say granny lives with them) would be smart enough to stay home also. But why keep everyone locked up?

The faster we get herd immunity from the low risk crowd, the faster we vulnerable people can return to the world.

But it should be up to those who WANT to take the risk. Don't use people like me as an excuse to lock them up.

So, if a million people die rather than 100,000, and they are not all "more vulnerable," then that would be okay by you?

[Sparko]

So, if a million people die, and they are not all "more vunerable," rather than 100,000, it's okay by you?

As I said, and you accidentally quoted after your dumbass accusation:

But it should be up to those who WANT to take the risk. Don't use people like me as an excuse to lock them up.

[JimL]

As I said, and you accidentally quoted after your dumbass accusation:

But it should be up to those who WANT to take the risk. Don't use people like me as an excuse to lock them up.

People who want to take the risk, put everybody else at risk.

[Sparko]

People who want to take the risk, put everybody else at risk.

No they don't. The only ones out there will be those who want to take the risk. I am sure people who have people at home who are vulnerable will be smart enough to not to endanger their loved ones, either by isolating them or staying home themselves.

You going out there and infecting yourself, isn't going to endanger me. I am being cautious and if I go out I wear an N95 mask. I assume everyone around me is infected anyway, so if more people want to go out, and back to work, it isn't going to change anything for me.

The facts say that 99% of the people who get infected won't die, and a very large percentage won't even get sick. The 1% of us who are vulnerable can wait it out, rather than have everyone wait it out with us.

[NorrinRadd]

Interesting and hopeful FNC article involving a Laura Ingraham segment. However, in spite of having had way more than enough of the face-masking and other dubious-value loved-by-fascists "mitigation" efforts, Captain Negative wonders if it really is a "virology 101" certainty that mutations necessarily go in the "weaker" direction.

If that really is the norm, it might essentially constitute a practical "end" to the pandemic.

[shunyadragon]

Interesting and hopeful FNC article involving a Laura Ingraham segment. However, in spite of having had way more than enough of the face-masking and other dubious-value loved-by-fascists "mitigation" efforts, Captain Negative wonders if it really is a "virology 101" certainty that mutations necessarily go in the "weaker" direction.

If that really is the norm, it might essentially constitute a practical "end" to the pandemic.

It follows a natural course like all previous pandemics, epidemic, and seasonal flus and colds, of zoonotic viruses naturally ends, and may jump to another animal and come back again. No vaccines in the near future that could serious impact this round of infection.

[JimL]

Interesting and hopeful FNC article involving a Laura Ingraham segment. However, in spite of having had way more than enough of the face-masking and other dubious-value loved-by-fascists "mitigation" efforts, Captain Negative wonders if it really is a "virology 101" certainty that mutations necessarily go in the "weaker" direction.

If that really is the norm, it might essentially constitute a practical "end" to the pandemic.

Interesting. Here's an interesting read on it.

http://asunow.asu.edu/20200505-asu-s...onavirus-study

Not sure I fully understand. The virus mutates to a weaker less lethal virus. Does that mean that the original strain no longer exists or that there are many different strains out there.

[Starlight]

To the OP I would add:

Elimination

Countries that have managed through closed borders, lock-downs, and high amounts of testing, to eliminate the virus's presence from amongst them, will open up their borders to one another. Over time, more and more countries will successfully eliminate the virus and move into this group.