Don't Test, Don't Tell

[myth]

Answer a simple question, use a little common sense. What's the actual number of cases? Equal or higher to that of the reported number of cases?

You answer my question first. Why do you think you know more the people who study this for a living?

[demi-conservative]

You answer my question first. Why do you think you know more the people who study this for a living?

Because by common sense and simple logic they are wrong. Deal with the logic, stop arguing from authority, stop mindlessly parroting.

[myth]

They're making estimates by factoring this in, you moron.

OF COURSE the number of infected is higher than what's reported. They have to look at the infection rate, extrapolate based on the known number of cases, and make an estimate. Why is it that you think they're not doing this at all? Your problem is you're assuming that people with PhDs and MDs, who do this professionally, are not nearly as bright as all-might Demi. Get over yourself and stop assuming you're smarter than everyone else.

Also, you've failed to provide a convincing argument for why I should believe you over educated and experienced epidemiologists.

[demi-conservative]

They're making estimates by factoring this in, you moron.

Why is it that you think they're not doing this at all?

Only very recently have they started factoring it in but for most of the time they've been trumpeting the 'crude' fatality rate before factoring it in.

Also, you've failed to provide a convincing argument for why I should believe you over educated and experienced epidemiologists.

Many of them started out by using Chinese data to make their authoritative pronouncement, when everyone knows that garbage in, garbage out and the Chinese data could not be trusted. These ''''''''''''experts''''''''''''' started out with nonsense and have been continuing ever since.

[demi-conservative]

Use simple logic. The USA had one of the highest fatality rate of around 6% for about 200+ cases*. But we can estimate very well that because of limited testing the number of cases should be at least a hundred times that, so the fatality should be greatly overstated by around at least a hundred times.

If you want to insist on '''''''''''experts''''''''''' like a good sheep, demi is not going to bother any more.

*has been dropping significantly with testing

[demi-conservative]

Fauci et al.

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.

If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.105...elated_article

Alright, in under 30 seconds searching demi found an expert opinion by DA GREAT EXPERT Anthony Fauci in one of the MOST PRESTIGIOUS medical PEER-REVIEWED journals, happy now?

[JimboJSR]

I know I shouldn't feed the troll, but others might be interested.

POINT 1: Fauci states that Covid-19's mortality may be less than 1%, and certainly better than the 9% of SARS - but this is neither evidence nor proof that the mortality rate is only 0.1%, and he doesn't claim anything that specific, because he can't.

POINT 2: Covid-19 is extremely transmissable, with R0 rates about double that of swine flu. This means it spreads quickly and widely, infecting a very large proportion of the population. Even if the mortality rate is low, it still means: a) a great many people dying (in the UK, 0.1% mortality of 50 million infected is a heck of a lot to happen in a few months; b) a great many more people get a pneumonia that needs admission to hospital (if you're hypoxic, you NEED admission,t his isn't anything to do with patients "panicking"; and c) health services rapidly being overwhelmed causing increased morbitity and mortality in the non-covid patients who can't access the care they need but can't get cos the hospitals are completely full and overflowing of covid cases.

POINT 3: Demi does not like experts. Demi needs no experts. Demi knoweth better than experts because Demi hath that might weapon, COMMON SENSE! Common Sense crusheth reason, crusheth data, and crusheth that which hallucinating doctors claim to see with thine own eyes! Common Sense lets Demi stride confidently into a hospital full of moronic medical teams and pathetic patients, whose bilateral pneumonia requiring oxygenation and ventilation is merely a psychosomatic manifestation of psychological weakness! Common Sense tells Demi that actually all this is nothing to worry about, and they should all just go home and be fine. Or maybe die. One or the other.

Demi, my previous offer to you is open. Feel free to come to Scotland in the next few weeks, see how our completely remodelled hospital is full of patients, young and old, who NEED to be there for medical care, and tell us that it's really nothing to worry about. Or go to a London hospital now - it's already hit there. Or even write to Prime Minister Johnson, chiding him for all this over-reaction, when all he really needs is your Common Sense. I'm sure your input to the hospital management will be most helpful.

[JimL]

Fauci et al.



Alright, in under 30 seconds searching demi found an expert opinion by DA GREAT EXPERT Anthony Fauci in one of the MOST PRESTIGIOUS medical PEER-REVIEWED journals, happy now?

If one assumes............, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. Lets hope that's the case. But that's one of the reasons that early, large scale testing, was of the utmost importance. The fatality rate will also be dependent upon how many people get the virus in the first place and that is dependent upon how the government and the people go about protecting themselves against it.

[demi-conservative]

Common Sense lets Demi stride confidently into a hospital full of moronic medical teams and pathetic patients, whose bilateral pneumonia requiring oxygenation and ventilation is merely a psychosomatic manifestation of psychological weakness!

This is a complete misrepresentation, but that's about all you have. No logic.

Demi, my previous offer to you is open. Feel free to come to Scotland in the next few weeks, see how our completely remodelled hospital is full of patients, young and old, who NEED to be there for medical care, and tell us that it's really nothing to worry about. Or go to a London hospital now - it's already hit there. Or even write to Prime Minister Johnson, chiding him for all this over-reaction, when all he really needs is your Common Sense. I'm sure your input to the hospital management will be most helpful.

Demi will point out that it is normal for the old to die, that for the common flu many die who NEED to be at the hospital to extend their lives, but they don't so it doesn't get overloaded. No country tries to save all the old people with flu who NEED treatment because that would overload the hospitals. Just as with the common flu, many of the old people with coronavirus will be allowed to die so that the hospitals won't be overwhelmed. All this is obvious but you don't want to admit the obvious.

Meanwhile who knows, demi might be in Japan or Korea where there is no lockdown, people aren't panicking, and hospitals aren't getting overwhelmed.

[demi-conservative]

If one assumes............,

All the cited figures of fatality rates are working on assumptions on the number of actual cases, Jim. All the experts are 'guesstimating', that magical word.

[demi-conservative]

Interview of an Israeli epidemiologist who worked on Ebola in Liberia:

Yamin currently heads the Laboratory for Epidemic Modeling and Analysis in TAU’s engineering faculty. His primary field of work is development of models for the spread of infectious diseases, with an emphasis on viruses responsible for respiratory ailments, such as flu and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus), which causes bronchitis. He is actually somewhat optimistic about the models he has developed for the spread of the coronavirus, which is also a respiratory disease.

“The big, open question is what the chance is of dying from the virus,” Yamin explains.

“The basic principle is that a virus with an R0 of 2 in a non-immune population can be expected to infect 50 percent of the population. After that the R0 will reach a value of 1 or less, and the disease will be contained. By the way, it will recede in a converging exponential; in other words, the coronavirus can be expected to disappear from this region with the same dizzying speed with which it entered our lives.”

But we don’t know for certain whether a person can be infected twice.

“No, but with the majority of viruses, if you’re infected and you have recovered, you won’t be re-infected, because of immunological memory. And if you are infected again, the symptoms will be less acute the second time. The exception to the rule is influenza: Its mutation frequency is so high that you can be infected by it year after year. Last year alone, the flu underwent 17 mutations. Whereas the last time we heard about corona was 17 years ago, with SARS. In other words, the coronavirus did not undergo mutations at the same frequency as the flu.

Now ask yourself: How do you check the mortality rate in all those countries? You take the total number of deaths and divide it by the total of reported patients.”

So the research is biased.

“Very biased. If I can only carry out few tests, I will test those who have the highest chance of becoming ill, and then, when I check the mortality rate among them, I will get very high numbers. But there is one country we can learn from: South Korea. South Korea has been coping with corona for a long time, more than most Western countries, and they lead in the number of tests per capita. Therefore, the official mortality rate there is 0.9 percent. But even in South Korea, not all the infected were tested – most have very mild symptoms.

“The actual number of people who are sick with the virus in South Korea is at least double what’s being reported, so the chance of dying is at least twice as low, standing at about 0.45 percent – very far from the World Health Organization’s [global mortality] figure of 3.4 percent. And that’s already a reason for cautious optimism.”

South Korea has one of the highest proportions of elderly people in the world, whereas Israel tops the graph in fertility, and we have a very young population. So, if we use the upper limit [of mortality] of South Korea and normalize the mortality rate for the population in Israel, we are talking about the probability of a mortality rate of 0.3 percent among those who have been infected.

“Now we’ll go to a severe scenario in which no one is immune and every second person is sick, so that the disease is incapable of spreading further – namely, a situation where there’s a maximum infection rate of 50 percent.

“We are a country of nine million citizens. So in the worst-case scenario, we are talking about 4.5 million Israelis who will become ill with the coronavirus. Multiply 4.5 million by 0.3 percent and you get 13,500 Israelis who are liable to die from the disease. By comparison, 700 to 2,500 Israelis die every year of complications from other respiratory ailments.”

But German Chancellor Angela Merkel talked about a rate of infection of 70 percent in Germany.

“And Netanyahu talked about a mortality rate of between 2 percent and 4 percent. And do you know what’s most absurd? That in the final analysis [U.S. President Donald] Trump was right. Not that the coronavirus is just plain flu – it absolutely isn’t – but as he put it: ‘This is just my hunch – way under 1 percent’ [will die].’

“We must be cautious, of course, but at the moment a high probability is emerging that the risks are far lower than what the World Health Organization presented. Under two assumptions – that the health system doesn’t collapse and that life continues as usual – we are not likely to see more than 13,500 victims of the coronavirus in Israel.” (About 45,000 people die in Israel in a normal year, which would make for a rise of approximately one-third.)
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...rong-1.8691031

[Sparko]

Their testing efforts are impressive, but it's still not possible for them to test everyone.

They now have an in place test that can give results locally in 45 minutes.

[Sparko]

Demi has also pointed out that for flu, which is not considered a serious disease, if all the people who died of it went to hospital the facilities would also be overwhelmed.

how do dead people go to the hospital?

[demi-conservative]

Demi has also pointed out that for flu, which is not considered a serious disease, if all the people who died of it had gone to hospital the facilities would also be overwhelmed.

Tense fixed.

[demi-conservative]

One month ago

Demi: fatality rate is yugely estimated, the actual rate is about 0.01%
people: but demi you are not expert how can you

Yesterday

Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate — 2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, 2 million to 4 million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills 2 million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.

The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-...ay-11585088464