Epidemiologist Drastically Reduces COVID-19 Estimates

[Mountain Man]

There you go again - off with the paranoid conspiracy Thing. Again, we know its origin both genetically and geographically.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0317175442.htm

Good grief you're ignorant, and dead set against the Chinese government being held accountable.

China lied, and people died. That's a fact. It's also a fact that this pandemic originated in China. It's called the Wuhan coronavirus. Period. China discovered evidence of this pneumonia-like illness in December and ordered its scientists to destroy samples. China dragged its feet when it came to informing the public. It kept information about human-to-human transmission buried. It kept medical crews in the dark and strong-armed doctors who were trying to do the right thing. But somehow, it's not China's fault. I cannot eye-roll hard enough. And remember, the World Health Organization pretty much spread Chinese misinformation in January...

The World Health Organization (WHO) is now haunted by a tweet it sent earlier this year when it cited Chinese health officials who claimed there had been no human transmissions of the novel coronavirus within the country yet.

The Jan. 14 tweet came less than two months before WHO declared COVID-19 to be a global pandemic.

"Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China," the organization had said.

It also relied on information from Chinese health authorities who have been accused of obscuring facts and figures during the course of the outbreak.

The Chinese government reportedly knew the disease was spreading before the tweet was sent, according to the South China Morning Post.

And yet, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus continues to praise China for its transparency over this fiasco, according to the Daily Caller. It all makes sense when you find out that China had backed Tedros' 2017 bid to be WHO director-general. Talk about quid pro quo, huh?

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattve...virus-n2565648

Would it really kill you to admit that the Chinese government bears the lion's share of the blame for this?

[rogue06]

Considering the measures China took to suppress this, I wouldn't be surprised if it was "in the wild" long before the rest of the world knew the Chinese coronavirus was even a thing.

It could well have been "in the wild" in the sense that AIDS was "in the wild" in the form of SIDS until it mutated and was able to spread to humans.

[DesertBerean]

This novel virus, whether because of Wuhan's reluctance to expose their incompetence to Bejing's attention, or just gross negligence overall in eating and cleaning habits, got out of control in China, and came into general population too easily because of carelessness and indifference. No conspiracy required.

Did we overreact? Maybe. Did politics take advantage of it? Very probably! Did the media feed into it? Absolutely!
The whole picture will come out sooner or later. And people will point fingers and blame somebody. Waste of time.

[Mountain Man]

It could well have been "in the wild" in the sense that AIDS was "in the wild" in the form of SIDS until it mutated and was able to spread to humans.

Well, yes, it was a virus that infected animals and then mutated into something that could be transmitted to humans, which is what happened at the disgusting "wet markets" in Wuhan, China. The Chinese government didn't admit any knowledge of it until late December, but one wonders how long they really knew.

[rogue06]

Good grief you're ignorant, and dead set against the Chinese government being held accountable.

China lied, and people died. That's a fact. It's also a fact that this pandemic originated in China. It's called the Wuhan coronavirus. Period. China discovered evidence of this pneumonia-like illness in December and ordered its scientists to destroy samples. China dragged its feet when it came to informing the public. It kept information about human-to-human transmission buried. It kept medical crews in the dark and strong-armed doctors who were trying to do the right thing. But somehow, it's not China's fault. I cannot eye-roll hard enough. And remember, the World Health Organization pretty much spread Chinese misinformation in January...

The World Health Organization (WHO) is now haunted by a tweet it sent earlier this year when it cited Chinese health officials who claimed there had been no human transmissions of the novel coronavirus within the country yet.

The Jan. 14 tweet came less than two months before WHO declared COVID-19 to be a global pandemic.

"Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China," the organization had said.

It also relied on information from Chinese health authorities who have been accused of obscuring facts and figures during the course of the outbreak.

The Chinese government reportedly knew the disease was spreading before the tweet was sent, according to the South China Morning Post.

And yet, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus continues to praise China for its transparency over this fiasco, according to the Daily Caller. It all makes sense when you find out that China had backed Tedros' 2017 bid to be WHO director-general. Talk about quid pro quo, huh?

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattve...virus-n2565648

Would it really kill you to admit that the Chinese government bears the lion's share of the blame for this?

Several health experts have expressed dismay that the WHO accepted at face value the claim that there was no human-to-human transmission since it flew in the face of what little we did know about it at the time and pretty much everything we know about how these things are transmitted.

Some wonder just what role Director-General, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, played in that decision since he is a fellow Marxist who in many ways owes China for his appointment to the position (they strongly backed him). He has been a leading voice in decrying of Trump's decision to halt travel from China into the U.S. proclaiming that it would increase "fear and stigma, with little public health benefit" and in complaining about referring to the disease as the Wuhan coronavirus or Chinese coronavirus.

Moreover, AFAICT, never admonished the Chicoms for their deliberate lying to the WHO about it not being transmitted human-to-human or criticised them for any of their other atrocious behavior. Instead he has been singing their praises for how they responded.

[oxmixmudd]

Good grief you're ignorant, and dead set against the Chinese government being held accountable.

China lied, and people died. That's a fact. It's also a fact that this pandemic originated in China. It's called the Wuhan coronavirus. Period. China discovered evidence of this pneumonia-like illness in December and ordered its scientists to destroy samples. China dragged its feet when it came to informing the public. It kept information about human-to-human transmission buried. It kept medical crews in the dark and strong-armed doctors who were trying to do the right thing. But somehow, it's not China's fault. I cannot eye-roll hard enough. And remember, the World Health Organization pretty much spread Chinese misinformation in January...

The World Health Organization (WHO) is now haunted by a tweet it sent earlier this year when it cited Chinese health officials who claimed there had been no human transmissions of the novel coronavirus within the country yet.

The Jan. 14 tweet came less than two months before WHO declared COVID-19 to be a global pandemic.

"Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China," the organization had said.

It also relied on information from Chinese health authorities who have been accused of obscuring facts and figures during the course of the outbreak.

The Chinese government reportedly knew the disease was spreading before the tweet was sent, according to the South China Morning Post.

And yet, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus continues to praise China for its transparency over this fiasco, according to the Daily Caller. It all makes sense when you find out that China had backed Tedros' 2017 bid to be WHO director-general. Talk about quid pro quo, huh?

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattve...virus-n2565648

Would it really kill you to admit that the Chinese government bears the lion's share of the blame for this?

IF they did, no. The problem is this virus is a natural mutation that made its way to humans through closer proximity to the carrier. And yes, it may have been a cultural affinity for those animals meat that allowed that to happen. But then again, the Europeans wiped out most native americans when they came here bringing syphilis which the Indians had no natural immunity to.

What you have is a government that wanted to contain it themselves and they didn't. A mistake - yes. Unexpected, no. Irresponsible - sure.

Do I think they were bad wrong to handle it like they did - yes. Typical authoritarian deal. Very bad.

Does any of that mean it's been floating around the US for months before we learned of it in China?

NO!

You're just letting your hatred stop up your brain.

[Starlight]

FWIU, for things like respirators and other supplies they were relying heavily on other member states in the EU if the need arose. When it did the other members said they couldn't spare any and left Italy to fend for themselves (one report even claimed that Germany forbade doctors from leaving the country to help).

I note Cuba sent doctors to Italy to help.

Just something for you "no communist country ever did anything at all good in any way ever" guys to bear in mind.

[shunyadragon]

The original prediction was a bad unprofessional decision, and can unreasonably cause panic. The original spread and nature of the virus in China did not reflect such a prediction.

[Mountain Man]

What you have is a government that wanted to contain it themselves and they didn't. A mistake - yes. Unexpected, no. Irresponsible - sure.

Do I think they were bad wrong to handle it like they did - yes. Typical authoritarian deal. Very bad.

Does any of that mean it's been floating around the US for months before we learned of it in China?

NO!

You're just letting your hatred stop up your brain.

Good grief, what a white wash! China did not make mere "mistakes", they deliberately suppressed information, they "silenced" (in many cases permanently) anybody who criticized the Chinese government or tried to blow the whistle, they lied about the severity of the illness and risk of transmission. They knew about it before they admitted to it in late December. The question is, how long before?

I don't know why you're so married to this narrative that China played it straight despite all evidence to the contrary.

[Juvenal]

I would like to take the antigen test to see if I have already had it and just not known. I had a really bad flu or something back in the fall. It's what made me end up in the hospital for a month after my bypass surgery. I ended up on a respirator for 2 weeks. I wonder if that could have been the covid-19 spreading around before anyone even knew about it?

Yeah, I suspect that's what I had in the Fall, when the doc told me "this stuff (cold/flu/cough) is staying on in people for over a month, when it used to be just about a week".

If it was covid-19 last fall, then the mortality would have begun last fall, too.

On the other hand, our resident crank might be onto something really positive here. That ICL report is the one I've been relying on for my projections. If the R0 is much higher than previously reported, then a much higher proportion of the population may already be infected, implying a much earlier and smaller peak.

Consider ten doublings, a reasonable estimate if it's been doubling every two to three days for a month:

(3/2.5)^10 = 6.191736422 times as many would already have been infected

For two months:

(3/2.5)^20 = 38.337599924 times as many would already have been infected

But without testing, there's no good way to know. The official figures reported on the John Hopkins dashboard are currently at 83,507, or 0.025 percent, a quarter of a tenth of a percent.

Meanwhile, Reuters is saying 2.6 percent of respondents to a recent poll claim to have been diagnosed with covid-19.

I'm going with the best numbers I can find. It's frustrating to know those numbers may be off as much as two orders of magnitude.

[Zara]

If it was covid-19 last fall, then the mortality would have begun last fall, too.

On the other hand, our resident crank might be onto something really positive here. That ICL report is the one I've been relying on for my projections. If the R0 is much higher than previously reported, then a much higher proportion of the population may already be infected, implying a much earlier and smaller peak.

Consider ten doublings, a reasonable estimate if it's been doubling every two to three days for a month:

(3/2.5)^10 = 6.191736422 times as many would already have been infected

For two months:

(3/2.5)^20 = 38.337599924 times as many would already have been infected

But without testing, there's no good way to know. The official figures reported on the John Hopkins dashboard are currently at 83,507, or 0.025 percent, a quarter of a tenth of a percent.

Meanwhile, Reuters is saying 2.6 percent of respondents to a recent poll claim to have been diagnosed with covid-19.

I'm going with the best numbers I can find. It's frustrating to know those numbers may be off as much as two orders of magnitude.

One sobering number I found recently is that the number of deaths has increased by between 13-14% per day for the past week. If that trend continues then 1 million people will have passed in one month, 36 million in two and 1.6 billion in three (although the peak will likely have passed by then) to the virus. https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-toll/

[Mountain Man]

If it was covid-19 last fall, then the mortality would have begun last fall, too.

How do you know it didn't? Since the Chinese coronavirus presents with flu like symptoms then it's probable that any related deaths could have been attributed to the common flu since doctors wouldn't have known to test for anything else.

[Zara]

How do you know it didn't? Since the Chinese coronavirus presents with flu like symptoms then it's probable that any related deaths could have been attributed to the common flu since doctors wouldn't have known to test for anything else.

Magic, it must be magic. Is that the answer? Dark magic, I assume. It must be, is that what's infecting your dull little brain?

[Mountain Man]

Magic, it must be magic. Is that the answer? Dark magic, I assume. It must be, is that what's infecting your dull little brain?

Sorry, I don't speak nonsense, so I have no idea what you're trying to say.

[Cow Poke]

If it was covid-19 last fall, then the mortality would have begun last fall, too.

Fair enough.