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Lab Leak: The conspiracy theory is shaping up to look like real possibility

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  • Originally posted by Starlight View Post
    There's two quite different theories though...

    1. That China was manufacturing bio-weapons. That this virus was created artificially in a bio-weapons lab. That it escaped from by mistake (or even on purpose) from that lab.

    2. That China was doing totally normal scientific study of animal diseases (with a view to understanding them and preventing their future transmission to humans). That one of the labs where they had some caged animals and were studying the diseases of them, was the original source of this virus after one of the scientists there caught it.

    China is denying #1, I think rightfully so.

    I believe #2 is correct from the evidence I've seen. China is also denying / trying to cover #2 which IMO is silly, but it doesn't really matter whether they admit that one or not. It's not like it makes a difference at this point.
    Yeah, that is where I think the truth lies right now, and why the scapegoating of the white house is over the top. But that very scape goating mentality is probably why china is denying #2. That is, the local authorities where such a mishap might have occurred would not only face the wrath of Trump and worldwide public opinion, they would likely also face an execution or worse from the top level Chinese government over it. So they are reporting no way to their superiors, who simply echo what they have been sworn to as the truth.
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 04-17-2020, 07:09 AM.
    My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

    If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

    This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

    Comment


    • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
      Yeah, that is where I think the truth lies right now, and why the scapegoating ofvthecwhite house is over the top. But that very scape goating mentality is probably why china is denying #2. That is, the local authorities where such a mishap might have occurred would not only face the wrath of Trump and worldwide public opinion, they would likely also face an execution or worse from the top level Chinese government over it.
      close, but the top level government is where the coverup is coming from. But I wouldn't put it past them to blame some local scapegoat when the truth is no longer able to be hidden. The CCP has total control of all information and its dissemination.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
        They don't even sell horseshoe bats in the market, which is the animal the virus came from.
        I won't go for the insults. I'm pretty sure it came from a bat that infected an animal type that was available at the market, which then passed it on to a human. As far as I understand it, pretty much no one thinks it went bat to human in one step.

        While I think it is unlikely to have come from a lab, I do think we're reaching an age where that type of thing will not only be possible but also relatively easy to make and spread. Maybe its time to rethink how we permit access to the techniques and knowledge associated with this kind of genetic technology. It seems pretty clear that its a massive risk. Also, maybe improve preparations for a future event. Regulate it, heavily, like nuclear weapons.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
          close, but the top level government is where the coverup is coming from. But I wouldn't put it past them to blame some local scapegoat when the truth is no longer able to be hidden. The CCP has total control of all information and its dissemination.
          No, I think the local authorities are the source of the misinformation. The upper level authorities just report what the locals are saying knowing they can and will remove the locals if they are lying.

          But it would not surprise me of the top level authorities know the locals are lying and are content to report their lies and look the other way as the locals try to cover it up as long as no proof exists otherwise.

          It's the old plausible deniability game. They look ok as long as there is not proof. And they look ok if the truth comes out and they feign indignation and punish the locals. Either way, it's in their best interests not to know in any concrete sense .

          ETA: clearly neither of us knows. So I'm not stating my belief as fact, and I dont think you are necessarily wrong. Nor do I think your opinion on this could not be justified. I just lean the direction of my post above.
          Last edited by oxmixmudd; 04-17-2020, 08:46 AM.
          My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

          If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

          This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

          Comment


          • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
            No, I think the local authorities are the source of the misinformation. The upper level authorities just report what the locals are saying knowing they can and will remove the locals if they are lying.

            But it would not surprise me of the top level authorities know the locals are lying and are content to report their lies and look the other way as the locals try to cover it up as long as no proof exists otherwise.

            It's the old plausible deniability game. They look ok as long as there is not proof. And they look ok if the truth comes out and they feign indignation and punish the locals. Either way, it's in their best interests not to know in any concrete sense .

            ETA: clearly neither of us knows. So I'm not stating my belief as fact, and I dont think you are necessarily wrong. Nor do I think your opinion on this could not be justified. I just lean the direction of my post above.
            True. I am just tossing out what my thinking is.

            But I think the CCP is the one doing the coverup because some of the doctors tried to warn the world and they "disappeared"

            Comment


            • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
              No, I think the local authorities are the source of the misinformation. The upper level authorities just report what the locals are saying knowing they can and will remove the locals if they are lying.

              But it would not surprise me of the top level authorities know the locals are lying and are content to report their lies and look the other way as the locals try to cover it up as long as no proof exists otherwise.

              It's the old plausible deniability game. They look ok as long as there is not proof. And they look ok if the truth comes out and they feign indignation and punish the locals. Either way, it's in their best interests not to know in any concrete sense .

              ETA: clearly neither of us knows. So I'm not stating my belief as fact, and I dont think you are necessarily wrong. Nor do I think your opinion on this could not be justified. I just lean the direction of my post above.
              You're assuming a level of research independence I don't believe exists in China. I mean, I could be wrong since I've never been there nor know anyone who has, but I doubt a research lab, researching deadly viruses would go unchecked by the upper authorities in a place like China.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by seanD View Post
                You're assuming a level of research independence I don't believe exists in China. I mean, I could be wrong since I've never been there nor know anyone who has, but I doubt a research lab, researching deadly viruses would go unchecked by the upper authorities in a place like China.
                EGGzackly.
                The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by seanD View Post
                  You're assuming a level of research independence I don't believe exists in China. I mean, I could be wrong since I've never been there nor know anyone who has, but I doubt a research lab, researching deadly viruses would go unchecked by the upper authorities in a place like China.
                  You have the right to your opinion. And I am not diminishing the authoritarian, oppressive nature of the Chinese governmental system. In terms of governmental systems that would engage in a top down cover-up if necessary - they are one of them. But in a case like this, there is no direct need for the upper level authorities to be directing everything from above. The local authorities know they are responsible, and they know what will happen to them if they make a major mistake. And that is sufficient to produce everything we are observing.
                  My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                  If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                  This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                    You have the right to your opinion. And I am not diminishing the authoritarian, oppressive nature of the Chinese governmental system. In terms of governmental systems that would engage in a top down cover-up if necessary - they are one of them. But in a case like this, there is no direct need for the upper level authorities to be directing everything from above. The local authorities know they are responsible, and they know what will happen to them if they make a major mistake. And that is sufficient to produce everything we are observing.
                    That doesn't sound anything like the China I've heard about, but to each his own.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                      True. I am just tossing out what my thinking is.

                      But I think the CCP is the one doing the coverup because some of the doctors tried to warn the world and they "disappeared"
                      Are you sure that wasn't just done at the local level? The first Doctor who died was harassed by local police, likely at the direction of local officials. If these other doctors that were 'disasppeared' covered a more national scope, then the evidence would lean your direction.
                      My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                      If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                      This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                        Are you sure that wasn't just done at the local level? The first Doctor who died was harassed by local police, likely at the direction of local officials. If these other doctors that were 'disasppeared' covered a more national scope, then the evidence would lean your direction.
                        Jim, where do you think the "local officials" get their marching orders? You really think they have any degree of autonomy at all?
                        The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                          They don't even sell horseshoe bats in the market, which is the animal the virus came from.
                          The genetic research I cited determined that the most likely source was the pangolin with a near exact genetic match. The previous cited research was more recent than the following article. The bats are considered historical reservoir source of a wide variation of coronavirus spread to other hosts in China including humans in the food chain. The following offers more details.

                          Source: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175442.htm



                          COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic has a natural origin
                          Date: March 17, 2020
                          Source: Scripps Research Institute
                          Summary: An analysis of public genome sequence data from SARS-CoV-2 and related viruses found no evidence that the virus was made in a laboratory or otherwise engineered.

                          The novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that emerged in the city of Wuhan, China, last year and has since caused a large scale COVID-19 epidemic and spread to more than 70 other countries is the product of natural evolution, according to findings published today in the journal Nature Medicine.

                          The analysis of public genome sequence data from SARS-CoV-2 and related viruses found no evidence that the virus was made in a laboratory or otherwise engineered.

                          "By comparing the available genome sequence data for known coronavirus strains, we can firmly determine that SARS-CoV-2 originated through natural processes," said Kristian Andersen, PhD, an associate professor of immunology and microbiology at Scripps Research and corresponding author on the paper.

                          In addition to Andersen, authors on the paper, "The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2," include Robert F. Garry, of Tulane University; Edward Holmes, of the University of Sydney; Andrew Rambaut, of University of Edinburgh; W. Ian Lipkin, of Columbia University.

                          Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that can cause illnesses ranging widely in severity. The first known severe illness caused by a coronavirus emerged with the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in China. A second outbreak of severe illness began in 2012 in Saudi Arabia with the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).

                          On December 31 of last year, Chinese authorities alerted the World Health Organization of an outbreak of a novel strain of coronavirus causing severe illness, which was subsequently named SARS-CoV-2. As of February 20, 2020, nearly 167,500 COVID-19 cases have been documented, although many more mild cases have likely gone undiagnosed. The virus has killed over 6,600 people.

                          Shortly after the epidemic began, Chinese scientists sequenced the genome of SARS-CoV-2 and made the data available to researchers worldwide. The resulting genomic sequence data has shown that Chinese authorities rapidly detected the epidemic and that the number of COVID-19 cases have been increasing because of human to human transmission after a single introduction into the human population. Andersen and collaborators at several other research institutions used this sequencing data to explore the origins and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 by focusing in on several tell-tale features of the virus.

                          The scientists analyzed the genetic template for spike proteins, armatures on the outside of the virus that it uses to grab and penetrate the outer walls of human and animal cells. More specifically, they focused on two important features of the spike protein: the receptor-binding domain (RBD), a kind of grappling hook that grips onto host cells, and the cleavage site, a molecular can opener that allows the virus to crack open and enter host cells.

                          Evidence for natural evolution

                          The scientists found that the RBD portion of the SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins had evolved to effectively target a molecular feature on the outside of human cells called ACE2, a receptor involved in regulating blood pressure. The SARS-CoV-2 spike protein was so effective at binding the human cells, in fact, that the scientists concluded it was the result of natural selection and not the product of genetic engineering.

                          This evidence for natural evolution was supported by data on SARS-CoV-2's backbone -- its overall molecular structure. If someone were seeking to engineer a new coronavirus as a pathogen, they would have constructed it from the backbone of a virus known to cause illness. But the scientists found that the SARS-CoV-2 backbone differed substantially from those of already known coronaviruses and mostly resembled related viruses found in bats and pangolins.

                          "These two features of the virus, the mutations in the RBD portion of the spike protein and its distinct backbone, rules out laboratory manipulation as a potential origin for SARS-CoV-2" said Andersen.

                          Josie Golding, PhD, epidemics lead at UK-based Wellcome Trust, said the findings by Andersen and his colleagues are "crucially important to bring an evidence-based view to the rumors that have been circulating about the origins of the virus (SARS-CoV-2) causing COVID-19."

                          "They conclude that the virus is the product of natural evolution," Goulding adds, "ending any speculation about deliberate genetic engineering."

                          Possible origins of the virus

                          Based on their genomic sequencing analysis, Andersen and his collaborators concluded that the most likely origins for SARS-CoV-2 followed one of two possible scenarios.

                          In one scenario, the virus evolved to its current pathogenic state through natural selection in a non-human host and then jumped to humans. This is how previous coronavirus outbreaks have emerged, with humans contracting the virus after direct exposure to civets (SARS) and camels (MERS). The researchers proposed bats as the most likely reservoir for SARS-CoV-2 as it is very similar to a bat coronavirus. There are no documented cases of direct bat-human transmission, however, suggesting that an intermediate host was likely involved between bats and humans.

                          In this scenario, both of the distinctive features of SARS-CoV-2's spike protein -- the RBD portion that binds to cells and the cleavage site that opens the virus up -- would have evolved to their current state prior to entering humans. In this case, the current epidemic would probably have emerged rapidly as soon as humans were infected, as the virus would have already evolved the features that make it pathogenic and able to spread between people.

                          In the other proposed scenario, a non-pathogenic version of the virus jumped from an animal host into humans and then evolved to its current pathogenic state within the human population. For instance, some coronaviruses from pangolins, armadillo-like mammals found in Asia and Africa, have an RBD structure very similar to that of SARS-CoV-2. A coronavirus from a pangolin could possibly have been transmitted to a human, either directly or through an intermediary host such as civets or ferrets.

                          Then the other distinct spike protein characteristic of SARS-CoV-2, the cleavage site, could have evolved within a human host, possibly via limited undetected circulation in the human population prior to the beginning of the epidemic. The researchers found that the SARS-CoV-2 cleavage site, appears similar to the cleavage sites of strains of bird flu that has been shown to transmit easily between people. SARS-CoV-2 could have evolved such a virulent cleavage site in human cells and soon kicked off the current epidemic, as the coronavirus would possibly have become far more capable of spreading between people.

                          Study co-author Andrew Rambaut cautioned that it is difficult if not impossible to know at this point which of the scenarios is most likely. If the SARS-CoV-2 entered humans in its current pathogenic form from an animal source, it raises the probability of future outbreaks, as the illness-causing strain of the virus could still be circulating in the animal population and might once again jump into humans. The chances are lower of a non-pathogenic coronavirus entering the human population and then evolving properties similar to SARS-CoV-2.

                          Funding for the research was provided by the US National Institutes of Health, the Pew Charitable Trusts, the Wellcome Trust, the European Research Council, and an ARC Australian Laureate Fellowship.

                          © Copyright Original Source



                          Despite the USA government is conducting an investigation concerning the possibility that the COVAG-19 originated in the Wuhan lab there is absolutely no direct evidence that the lab is the source.

                          I will go with the science and continue to cite science.
                          Last edited by shunyadragon; 04-17-2020, 10:07 AM.
                          Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                          Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                          But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                          go with the flow the river knows . . .

                          Frank

                          I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                            Yeah that does seem pretty plausible.

                            here is a news article saying pretty much the same thing with similar evidence:

                            https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/...to-wuhan-labs/
                            I found that article after watching SL's video in pause-and-google mode. It's primarily an analysis of Matthew Tye's video. It includes contrary information on his supposition that Huang Yanling was patient zero.
                            None of her publicly available research papers are dated after 2015.

                            That sounds like she left the lab with her masters degree in hand and stopped engaging in research five years ago, which would neatly explain initial confusion with suggestions she was currently working there and indeed, was patient zero. If she was continuing research in the lab, she'd have published, but with a bare masters she wouldn't have published alone or as the lead author.

                            Any suggestion that her research has been scrubbed has a high bar to pass. I'm imagining someone scrubbing a paper because it listed me, and how that would go over with the names in front of me in the author list. The answer is, it wouldn't. It would be easier to get away with stealing their infant children.

                            From the photo in Tye's video, I'd say she was far and away the prettiest. I wouldn't be surprised to find that fact is skewing attention toward her. More, she's one of three whose pictures and bios have recently been removed. And lastly, Tye says himself that he got the name from the Chinese version of FB.


                            While nothing pings my radar on this article, NR has not proven to be a reliable source in general. Those looking for more reputable sources will be pleased to find links to Scientific American's March 11 article, How China’s “Bat Woman” Hunted Down Viruses from SARS to the New Coronavirus, and the Feb 3 paper in Nature — the gold standard for academic journals — A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin.

                            The paper in Nature lists Tye's other name-drop, Zheng-Li Shi, as corresponding author, creating a possible conflict of interest behind the statement, "This disease outbreak—which started from a local seafood market ..."

                            NR garbles the paper's results, but that's extremely common in popular press. They linked it, and summarized it well enough. Here's the straight information from the abstract.
                            Full-length genome sequences were obtained from five patients at an early stage of the outbreak. The sequences are almost identical and share 79.6% sequence identity to SARS-CoV. Furthermore, we show that 2019-nCoV is 96% identical at the whole-genome level to a bat coronavirus.

                            Taking that apart, "almost identical" means there's only one patient zero. "96 percent identical" means it came from a bat. "79.6 percent sequence identity" strongly suggests that it's a variant of the SARS-CoV-1 that originated with Palm Civets and caused the 2002-2004 epidemic.

                            On the larger issue of origins, at this point I'm concluding with a good deal of confidence Covid-19 started with a lab accident involving a natural virus brought back with bat samples and that the references to the seafood market are a deliberate misdirection to a health risk previously known to members of the nearby lab from which it escaped.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                              Jim, where do you think the "local officials" get their marching orders?
                              The marching orders from their bosses are effectively to cover up their mistakes — by keeping news of them away from their bosses.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Juvenal View Post
                                The marching orders from their bosses are effectively to cover up their mistakes — by keeping news of them away from their bosses.
                                So, yeah, the "marching orders" come from the top.
                                The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                                Comment

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