Will COVID 19 return?

[simplicio]

COVID will return prior to that, in July, because that's when Giant Microbes releases its Coronavirus plush toy:

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https://www.giantmicrobes.com/us/pro...ronavirus.html

But will the Mexican beer come back?

Maybe it says something about we moderns that the negative perceptions centered on the beer label such that they stopped selling a venerable brand with otherwise positive views.

[shunyadragon]

It's not clear to me that we can trust any numbers coming out of China at this point. I'm not even seeing their testing numbers reported on worldometer or JHUM.



More data is most certainly needed, which makes this thread somewhat premature. Especially given that we do not yet have evidence that someone who has had the virus is subsequently immune to it. That assumption underlies all of the plans to re-open the economy and the entire concept of herd immunity in the absence of a vaccine.

I follow the numbers and the infection curve in each country and region methodically, comparing this with previous pandemic and epidemic virus patterns, and there are distinct patterns of how the virus progresses, and they all still follow a basic natural bell curve pattern that is predictable. The following are some of my conclusions concerning the actual evidence from different countries and regions.

The first and most important is the natural bell curve is not symmetrical. The onset from the spread appears to be gradual, but deceptive, because of the large percentage of infected that are asymptomatic and mild symptoms. There is good evidence that the recovery side of the curve is slower and longer then a symmetrical curve. One possible reason for this is the infection of many that do not have immunity that were previously geographically isolated. The data from both France and China are good examples. See the following that shows the data and graph for France: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...rus-cases.html. I see the possibility of the spread of the COVID 19 into regions previous not impacted.

The most interesting problem is the fact that the USA has over one-forth of the world's total fatalities. The reason for this needs more information as the the pandemic progressive.

Another country that was infected late, and proactively and aggressively implemented mitigation measures is South Africa. On this point I will have to wait and see because it is early in their infection.

As far as reinfection of those with antibodies, this remains a very hypothetical possibility, and not the pattern of zoonotic virus in history. There is the distinctive possibility of short term rebound of the virus in patients that have not fully recovered including secondary infections like pneumonia. The history of viruses is that you do not have reinfection on the short term, but as a virus mutates, and comes back in another later cycle antibodies may only provide limited protection. In flus some antibody immunity and herd immunity may reduce the regional infection rate for generations.

[shunyadragon]

There have been many predictions and a few divining rod estimates concerning the fate of the COVID 19 pandemic. I will review my predictions and add a few which I consider good news.

I predicted that the bell curve the bell curve of the number of infection cases and fatalities would peak in late April to early May centered on May. It appears to be late April but with a slow prolonged recovery, which is not the best news. In the pronged recovery I believe there will likely be an overlapping curve in larger countries where isolated areas and regions with low and no immunity. This happened in China.

Despite predictions of a second infection curve in the Fall, like Fauci, I believe there will be none. The reason for this is the low mutation rate of COVID 19. I believe the reason the related SARS 2003 epidemic did not come back is a similar reason. Yes, some sources as cited below conconsider the low mutation rate a blessing that a better chance of having an effective vaccine if it comes back.

The possibility that the COVID 19 virus comes back next year is dependent on finding another animal to hope a ride and mutate. Maybe cats. Maybe yes and maybe no.

Source: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/low-coronavirus-mutations-mean-hope-for-a-single-vaccine.html

Low Coronavirus Mutation Rate Gives Researchers Hope for Eventual Vaccine: Report
By Matt Stieb
[IMG]

As the World Health Organization launches trials for potential treatments for COVID-19, scientists studying the coronavirus are encouraged that its low mutation rate could mean that a single vaccine is possible.

According to researchers who spoke with the Washington Post, there are only around four to ten genetic differences between the coronavirus strains that have infected Americans and those of the original virus in Wuhan. “That’s a relatively small number of mutations for having passed through a large number of people,” Peter Thielen, a Johns Hopkins molecular geneticist, told the Post. “At this point, the mutation rate of the virus would suggest that the vaccine developed for SARS-CoV-2 would be a single vaccine, rather than a new vaccine every year like the flu vaccine.” Rather, a potential coronavirus vaccine would act more like those for the measles or chicken pox, in which one shot grants immunity for a substantial amount of time.

According to the current research, the virus that causes COVID-19 has a low “error rate,” meaning that its pace of mutation remains slow despite its rapid spread. Because it remains more or less stable as it travels through hundreds of thousands of patients, researchers state that it is less likely to become more dangerous (or less) as it spreads. “The virus has not mutated to any significant extent,” University of Iowa virologist Stanley Perlman said. “Just one ‘pretty bad’ strain for everybody so far. If it’s still around in a year, by that point we might have some diversity.”

one biotech firm hopes that trials could be ready as soon as the fall — though more conservative estimates suggest next year at the earliest.

© Copyright Original Source

[siam]

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/art...-with-covid-19

there are 3 coronaviruses ---SARS, (2003) MERS, (2012) and COVID-19.(2019)
Of these...SARS and MERS are more deadly...but they spread less so death rats can be contained.
Covid is less deadly than the others but because it spreads rapidly, more people die from it.

Stats in the linked article.....

[siam]

rough trajectory of new respiratory illnesses....

Sars (2003)
Swine Flu/H1N1-2009
Mers (2012)
Avian Flu/H5N1-(2013)
Avian Flu/H7N9 -(2016)
Covid-19 -(2019)

[firstfloor]

Covid 19 will disappear when you do a few things:

Invent a predictive model that gives politically acceptable results.
Run down the testing capacity.
Make sure that death certificates do not register covid deaths.
Hide the bodies.

In the long term, make sure that post emergency scientific studies are not funded.

[Sparko]

Covid 19 will disappear when you do a few things:

Invent a predictive model that gives politically acceptable results.
Run down the testing capacity.
Make sure that death certificates do not register covid deaths.
Hide the bodies.

In the long term, make sure that post emergency scientific studies are not funded.

That's pretty much what China did.

[shunyadragon]

That's pretty much what China did.

. . . and Trump.

[firstfloor]

Trump begins the ‘mushroom’ treatment:

President Trump in recent weeks has sought to block or downplay information about the severity of the coronavirus pandemic as he urges a return to normalcy and the rekindling of an economy that has been devastated by public health restrictions aimed at mitigating the outbreak.
His administration has sidelined or replaced officials not seen as loyal, rebuffed congressional requests for testimony, dismissed jarring statistics and models, praised states for reopening without meeting White House guidelines and, briefly, pushed to disband a task force created to combat the virus and communicate about the public health crisis.


Several Republican governors are following Trump’s lead as an effort takes shape to control the narrative about a pandemic that has continued to rage throughout a quickly reopening country. With polls showing most consumers still afraid to venture out of their homes, the Trump administration has intensified its efforts to soothe some of those fears through a messaging campaign that relies on tightly controlling information about a virus that has proven stubbornly difficult to contain.

[oxmixmudd]

Trump begins the ‘mushroom’ treatment:

Source? WPO?

[mikewhitney]

Covid 19 will disappear when you do a few things:

Invent a predictive model that gives politically acceptable results.
Run down the testing capacity.
Make sure that death certificates do not register covid deaths.
Hide the bodies.

In the long term, make sure that post emergency scientific studies are not funded.

What do you want here?
Do you want fake panic news from the media?
Do you want useless reports on number of cases -- which lack any scientific methodology, as required to make such data useful (such as how many shifts from negative to positive)?
Do you want bodies on the street with tags saying "this is a COVID-19 death"?
Do you want more false reports that all deaths are COVID-19 related?

[carpedm9587]

What do you want here?
Do you want fake panic news from the media?
Do you want useless reports on number of cases -- which lack any scientific methodology, as required to make such data useful (such as how many shifts from negative to positive)?
Do you want bodies on the street with tags saying "this is a COVID-19 death"?
Do you want more false reports that all deaths are COVID-19 related?

Seldom is scientific data "clean." You do the best you can with what you have. The tendency of so many on the right to discount the science because it isn't "perfect" reveals the deep misunderstanding they have for what science is and can do.

[YHWH RULES]

If we don't take the appropriate measures, it will definitely return with a vengeance. Unfortunately, our country doesn't have the leadership or infrastructure to effectively handle a national crises like this, so we need to do our best, on our own, in spite of the challenges, to not contract this dangerous disease. if we get infected, we need to improve our chances of only having a mild infection, rather than a serious one requiring hospitalization. We achieve that by doing our homework, our own research, and learning what we can do, as far as treatments, vitamins, what drugs we can take to lessen the blow of the infection on our bodies (lungs, kidneys, heart..etc). .

The fact there are so many people in our country who think this pandemic is a joke or hoax, refusing to cover their mouths and noses in public (covering the mouth, being the most important of the two, but nonetheless, both should be covered), makes all of the above mentioned efforts not to get infected, more difficult. I expect cases to go up in the parts of the country where people want to end social distances and take their masks off in public. We're going to see an explosion of COVID in these parts of the country and their hospitals will be overwhelmed with patients. Patients who got infected due to their own reckless behavior or someone who got infected due to these people's miscreant, irresponsible antics. Wicked, lawless, "Christian", self-styled "constitutionalists" , so called, Ayn Rand "libertarian patriots", who only care about themselves, defying all of the government measures to fight the pandemic, becoming public health hazards in the process. Such people should stay at home when they get infected and develop a serious infection. Pray to God or Ayn Rand, or the invisible hand of the free market to heal you. Don't go to the hospital, to take a bed and ventilator away from someone who got infected of no fault of their own. Be a true "warrior" and stay at home,with your combat rifle, wearing body armor, praying to Jesus to heal you.

They think they're the children of YAHWEH, but they're not, they're the children of their father the devil, who was a defiant, belligerent, promoter of personal "independence" and "freedom". When our heavenly Monarch returns from heaven, the first missiles fired at his armies, will be from the major earthly powers of this sin stricken, fallen world. All of these "democracies" and "republics" will fight the King of Kings and Lord of Lords, tooth and nail, and will be quickly defeated and forced to bow their knees. Those who in the middle of a pandemic, insist on appealing to their supposed personal independence and "sovereignty" , will get a rude awakening when YAHWEH's anointed and His armies return to this earth, with glory and power.

Rev 12:5 " And she brought forth a man child, who was to rule all nations with a rod of iron: and her child was rcaught up unto God, and to his throne. "


Those who insist on thumbing their noses at government measures/community measures to stop a deadly virus from spreading and possibly killing millions of Americans, will pay the piper, either in this life or when they stand before the heavenly council to reap their harvest. In YAHWEHs Kingdom, there is interdependence, not personal independence and individualism. There is symbiosis, not schism, severance
dissent, dissidence. Oneness, where no one is capitalizing on anyone's needs, because each member of the body, selflessly sacrifices and functions for the whole body. That is the Kingdom of YAHWEH, which is paradise for the actual born again (born from above) disciples of Messiah, but hell for the carnal and unregenerate soul. Heaven is hell for the wicked, which is a place of order, oneness, unity, community, selfless love, solidarity, between all of YAHWEH's creatures. There's no Ayn Rand individualism, libertarianism, republicanism in YHWH's Kingdom, only absolute monarchy and community.

In the middle of a pandemic, the righteous thing to do is to wear a mask. Not becoming a public health hazard, will go a long way in bearing good testimony for YAHWEH and His Kingdom.

[mikewhitney]

Seldom is scientific data "clean." You do the best you can with what you have. The tendency of so many on the right to discount the science because it isn't "perfect" reveals the deep misunderstanding they have for what science is and can do.

I have gone and studied and learned about the science behind all of this. I just cannot entice other people whether leftist or conservative to look into it. It is a continual problem I have observed during the pandemic. No one is even paying attention to common sense about things we are told to do.

I would have expected some intellectual participants in this forum to look into details beyond the headlines. But there have been no takers on this, beyond just looking at Ferguson's failed models.

[firstfloor]

What do you want here?
Do you want fake panic news from the media?
Do you want useless reports on number of cases -- which lack any scientific methodology, as required to make such data useful (such as how many shifts from negative to positive)?
Do you want bodies on the street with tags saying "this is a COVID-19 death"?
Do you want more false reports that all deaths are COVID-19 related?

A good and easy to understand statistic is excess deaths (above average values). So far, it should be about 150k in total.