It is too early to call the race!!!
But limping is never a good sign...
Modern polling is done with microscopic samples and a careful thumb on the scale. This makes it poor at reading changes in the electorate - people being fickle at the best of times. Even well done polls are only a snapshot of what today is like - it isn't a crystal ball into tomorrow.
There are several factors playing into the current dog and pony show that is the bloated Democrat field heading into traditional campaign season - micro-fundraising is one (my guess it's the biggest factor keeping the field so ridiculously large - the three ring debates didn't help). The complete lack of a solid front runner and the obsession with 'Twitter culture' are others. The result is a fine collection of circus ponies - but no real race horse.
That was fine in January - it's bad news in September.
On the other side, an embattled incumbent - who is daily slaughtered in an increasingly out of touch, mistrusted and largely irrelevant press. The greatest scandal of the past three years has crumbled to nothing. Economic improvements are showing marked effects on the polls measuring voter concerns but ignored by the media. Stalwart supporters cringe every time they look at Twitter. Every week brings a new, colorful and insane controversy. Approval ratings run low - this should be just a show pony, right?
Not quite.
Approval ratings are showing a comeback - but it's a terrible metric so I'll leave it alone.
Here's the one that counts this early in the race - money. The Trump campaign was outperforming the democrats BEFORE he announced - now, the margin has widen to unreal proportions.
2019, Second Quarter:
That's before he collected $15 million in ONE DAY in CALIFORNIA.
That's a contending race horse coming out of the paddock while the circus ponies are still dancing in the center ring...
But limping is never a good sign...
Modern polling is done with microscopic samples and a careful thumb on the scale. This makes it poor at reading changes in the electorate - people being fickle at the best of times. Even well done polls are only a snapshot of what today is like - it isn't a crystal ball into tomorrow.
There are several factors playing into the current dog and pony show that is the bloated Democrat field heading into traditional campaign season - micro-fundraising is one (my guess it's the biggest factor keeping the field so ridiculously large - the three ring debates didn't help). The complete lack of a solid front runner and the obsession with 'Twitter culture' are others. The result is a fine collection of circus ponies - but no real race horse.
That was fine in January - it's bad news in September.
On the other side, an embattled incumbent - who is daily slaughtered in an increasingly out of touch, mistrusted and largely irrelevant press. The greatest scandal of the past three years has crumbled to nothing. Economic improvements are showing marked effects on the polls measuring voter concerns but ignored by the media. Stalwart supporters cringe every time they look at Twitter. Every week brings a new, colorful and insane controversy. Approval ratings run low - this should be just a show pony, right?
Not quite.
Approval ratings are showing a comeback - but it's a terrible metric so I'll leave it alone.
Here's the one that counts this early in the race - money. The Trump campaign was outperforming the democrats BEFORE he announced - now, the margin has widen to unreal proportions.
2019, Second Quarter:
That's before he collected $15 million in ONE DAY in CALIFORNIA.
That's a contending race horse coming out of the paddock while the circus ponies are still dancing in the center ring...
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