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'The first New York patient was in...January?'
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Originally posted by demi-conservative View PostThe fatality rate for young working adults with no preexisting conditions is very low. Unfortunately Fauci and others will have to defend the use of the quarantine. What are they going to say, 'sorry, looks like crashing the economy and causing depression level unemployment wasn't necessary?'Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Originally posted by JimL View PostThey are called risk factors.
Patients with risk factors may live another 20 years with that condition if not for the virus. So the virus would be the direct cause.
Some otherwise healthy people die from the virus, while others don't, but we don't assign the direct cause of their deaths to underlying conditions.The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.
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Originally posted by demi-conservative View PostTo elaborate, hospitals being overloaded does not mean that a virus is more deadly. Two virus with the same fatality rate but different R0 will have a different loads on hospitals. One curve can peak in one month and overload hospitals, while another can peak in 4 months with the same fatality rate.
Working doctors to exhaustion is primarily a matter of how fast the virus spreads and not how deadly it is. Get that into your head somehow.
The peak number of patients per day depends on both fatality rate and R0. Not just one or the other. Measured R0 is about twice that of the flu. So that can account for a doubling of the peak. But it can't account for the ratio of the number that get sick to the number that die. And we can look at S.Korea and Germany for good ratios. 1.5 to 2%. Testing in iceland shows asymptomatic cases are 50% - or 2 times symptomatic. S. Korea and Germany are testing nearly 100% of symptomatic cases. That leaves with with .7 to 1% mortality. And that can account for what we are seeing in terms of the number of people dying. To get this volume of patients dying from flu-like mortality the R0 would need to be very much higher. Keep in mind R0 is a measurement.
To get where your speculation takes you, asymptomatic cases need to be well above 90%. That is not what is being found where full or nearly full testing is being done.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by demi-conservative View PostWorking doctors to exhaustion is primarily a matter of how fast the virus spreads and not how deadly it is. Get that into your head somehow.
Doctors in many parts of the United States have reported 40-60 percent drops in admissions for heart attacks and strokes, one cardiologist wrote in the New York Times. Although many doctors and nurses are busy with a spike in COVID-19 cases, Dr. Harlan M. Krumholz also wrote, many hospitals are more empty than normal.
"Our hospital is usually so full that patients wait in gurneys along the walls of the emergency department for a bed to become available on the general wards or even in the intensive care unit," said Dr. Krumholz. "We send people home from the hospital as soon as possible so we can free up beds for those who are waiting. But the pandemic has caused a previously unimaginable shift in the demand for hospital services."
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/ellieb...ctors-n2566557
I read one anecdote from an ambulance driver (I forget where he was from) saying that this is the slowest his job has ever been in his entire career.Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostS. Korea and Germany are testing nearly 100% of symptomatic cases. That leaves with with .7 to 1% mortality. And that can account for what we are seeing in terms of the number of people dying. To get this volume of patients dying from flu-like mortality the R0 would need to be very much higher. Keep in mind R0 is a measurement.
If you actually used your brain instead of parroting, many cases would have recovered especially since spread started weeks earlier than thought. Which is why you need extensive serology if you want any hope of knowing the true incidence rate, as Teallaura has pointed out. Real incidence rate is unknown, and real R0 is unknown.Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.
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Originally posted by demi-conservative View PostThe system in Italy was set up to handle normal seasonal winter mortality, which of course includes flu. It fails because they got normal daily mortality + flu + the additional virus. This tells you nothing about how deadly the additional virus is, only that it spreads fast and gives a lot of cases in a short period of time.
And those numbers tell us a lot about how deadly the virus is.Last edited by oxmixmudd; 04-09-2020, 05:32 PM.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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The peak number of patients per day depends on both fatality rate and R0.Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostItaly has over 18000 dead. They still have over 90,000 sick patients. and they have 3600 people currently in serious to critical condition. Those numbers tell us a lot about how deadly the virus is.Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View PostDoctors in many parts of the United States have reported 40-60 percent drops in admissions for heart attacks and strokes, one cardiologist wrote in the New York TimesRemember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.
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Originally posted by demi-conservative View PostNo, peak number of patients per day is purely about rate of spread. If you can't get that in your head, get out of the thread. There's been enough of your idiotic parroting.
R0 is the number of patients infected by a single patient. that and the available population defines what the peak number of cases will be. But Hospitals are not overrun by the peak number of cases, they are overrun by the peak number of seriously ill and dying patients. And that is defined by both the mortality and R[0]. For example, 95% mortality will overwhelm a hospital with an R0 far less that that of the flu. But .00001% mortality may not overwhelm a hospital even with a measles like r0 of 8 to 15.Last edited by oxmixmudd; 04-09-2020, 05:44 PM.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostNo demi. R0 is the number of patients infected by a single patient. that and the available population defines what the peak number of cases will be. But Hospitals are not overrun by the peak number of cases, they are overrun by the peak number of seriously ill and dying patients. And that is defined by both the mortality and R[0]. For example, 95% mortality will overwhelm a hospital with an R0 far less that that of the flu. But .00001% mortality may not overwhelm a hospital even with a measles like r0 of 8 to 15.
Let's deal with the new goalposts. Since it's due to mortality and R0, it doesn't tell you anything about mortality alone if you don't know what R0 is. And we have no clue what R0 is because the total number of cases is unknown.Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.
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Originally posted by demi-conservative View PostNow you're shifting goalposts from "peak number of patients a day" to "peak number of serious patients a day".
Let's deal with the new goalposts. Since it's due to mortality and R0, it doesn't tell you anything about mortality alone if you don't know what R0 is. And we have no clue what R0 is because the total number of cases is unknown.
And further, we know exactly what those numbers are. They are available all over the web. what we don't know fully is the number of cases - and you've been talking about what we don't know - # of cases, but calling that # of patients, which is wrong.
As for measuring R0, we do not need to know the total number of actual cases to derive that value. We can use contact tracing relative to known case coupled with full testing of those contacts over the incubation period to determine R0.Last edited by oxmixmudd; 04-09-2020, 05:54 PM.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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The data has more holes than swiss cheese, you idiot, primarily because we don't know how many cases there are. 'Measured R0' is useless because we don't know the actual number of cases, therefore we don't know what is the actual R0. Likewise, 'measured mortality' is useless.
And further, we know exactly what those numbers are. They are available all over the web.Last edited by demi-conservative; 04-09-2020, 05:58 PM.Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.
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